Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerinde Emeklilik Fonları, Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Bir Panel Nedensellik Analizi

Dünyada sağlık alanındaki gelişmeler ve refah artışı bireylerin yaşam beklentisini artırırken, doğurganlık oranı düşme ve yaşlı bağımlılık oranı ise artma eğilimindedir. Söz konusu gelişmeler, büyük ölçüde dağıtım sistemine dayalı kamu emeklilik sistemlerinin finansal sürdürülebilirliğini tehlikeye düşürmüş ve kamu bütçe dengesini olumsuz etkilemiştir. Bunun sonucunda birçok ülke tek ayaklı emeklilik sistemlerini, bireysel emeklilik planları ve işyeri bazlı emeklilik planları ile desteklemiş, emeklilik fonlarının sahip oldukları varlıkların büyüklüğü ve değeri önemli miktarda artmıştır. Bu çalışmada nedensellik analizi kullanılarak 2002-2016 döneminde yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde emeklilik fonları, finansal sektörün gelişimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik etkileşimi incelenmiştir. Nedensellik analizi emeklilik fonları ile ekonomik büyüme arasında iki yönlü, finansal gelişmeden ekonomik büyümeye tek yönlü, finansal gelişmeden emeklilik fonlarına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik olduğunu göstermektedir.

Pension Funds, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Emerging Market Economies: A Panel Causality Analysis

Fertility rate is on the downward trend and age dependency ratio is on the rise trend, while the developments in healthcare and welfare increase in the world raise the life expectancy of the individuals. The aforementioned developments endangered the financial sustainability of the public pension systems largely based on pay as you go system and negatively affected public sector budget. As a consequence, many countries supported their one-tiered pension system with private pension plans and occupational pension plans and the size and value of the pension funds’ assets have raised considerably. This study researches the causal interaction among pension funds, financial sector development, and economic growth in emerging market economies over the 2002-2016 period with causality analysis. The causality analysis revealed a two-way causality between pension funds and economic growth, and a one-way causality from financial development to the economic growth and from financial development to the pension funds.

Kaynakça

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