Türkiye’nin Son Yüzyılında Satın Alma Gücü Paritesi

Satın alma gücü paritesi (SGP) ülkeler arasındaki fiyat düzeyi farklılıklarını gözeterek farklı para birimlerinin satın alma güçlerini göstermesi ve ülkeler arasındaki yaşam standartlarını karşılaştırmaya olanak sağlaması nedeniyle karar vericiler tarafından dikkatle gözlemlenen önemli bir ekonomik göstergedir. Bu çalışmada birim kök testleri, varyans oranı testleri ile kesirli bütünleşme modellerinden oluşan bir dizi durağanlık testi kullanılarak, 1923-2018 dönemini kapsayan yaklaşık 100 yıllık uzunluğa sahip veri seti ile Dolar/Lira döviz kuru için satın alma gücü paritesi hipotezi test edilmektedir. Ekonometrik bulgular reel döviz kurunun durağanlığı ile ilgili çelişkili sonuçlara işaret etmektedir. Testlerin gücüne göre yapılan eleme sonucunda, Türkiye’nin son yüzyılının SGP yüzyılı olarak adlandırılamayacağı belirlenmektedir. Bu nedenle, günümüzde Türkiye için gerek döviz kurunun uzun dönemli denge değerinin tespit edilmesinde gerekse diğer ülkelerle gelir kıyaslaması yapılmasında SGP’nin kullanılmasının uygun olmayacağı sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada belirtilen görüşler yazarına ait olup, T.C. Merkez Bankası’nın görüşlerini yansıtmamaktadır.

Purchasing Power Parity in the Last Century of Turkey

Purchasing power parity (PPP) is a crucial economic indicator observed carefully by decisionmakers, as it shows the purchasing power of different currencies by taking into consideration the price level differences and allowing comparing the standards of living between countries. In this study, using a battery of stationarity tests including unit root tests, variance ratio tests and fractional integration models, hypothesis of purchasing power parity for the Dollar/Lira exchange rate is tested with a data set which spans approximately a hundred years in length, covering the period 1923-2018. The econometric results reveal conflicting results regarding the stationarity of the real exchange rate. As a result of the elimination based on the strength of the tests, Turkey's last century cannot be called as a century of PPP century. Therefore, it is concluded that it is not appropriate for Turkey to use PPP in determining the long-term equilibrium value of the exchange rate and in making Income comparisons with other countries.

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