Ekonomik büyümenin belirleyicisi olarak ihracat: gelişmekte olan Asya ülkeleri için yatay kesit bağımlılığı altında çoklu yapısal kırılmalı panel eşbütünleşme analizi

Bu çalışmada; ihracatın, ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri, gelişmekte olan Asya Ülkeleri için, 1980-2012 dönemi verileri kullanılarak, yatay kesit bağımlılığını ve birden fazla yapısal kırılmayı göz önünde bulunduran panel veri analizi yöntemleriyle incelenmiştir. Çalışmada, yatay kesit bağımlılığı; Pesaran ve Yamagata (2008) CDLMadj testiyle incelenmiş ve ülkeler arasında yatay kesit bağımlılığının olduğu görülmüştür. Serilerin durağanlığı; Carrion-i-Silvestre vd. (2005) PANKPSS çoklu yapısal kırılmalı panel birim kök testiyle sınanmış ve serilerin düzey değerlerinde durağan olmayıp, birinci farkları alındığında durağan hale geldiği görülmüştür. Seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı; Basher ve Westerlund (2009) tarafından geliştirilen çoklu yapısal kırılmalı panel eşbütünleşme testiyle incelenmiş ve seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin var olduğu belirlenmiştir. Eşbütünleşme katsayıları; Pesaran (2006b) tarafından geliştirilen CCE ve CCMGE yöntemleriyle tahmin edilmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda; bu ülkelerde ihracatın ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif ve anlamlı düzeyde etkilediği, ihracatta meydana gelen yüzde10 oranındaki artışın, ekonomik büyümeyi yüzde 1 oranında arttırdığı tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

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Exports as a determinant of economic growth: panel cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks under cross-sectional dependence for developing asian countries

In this study, the effects of exports on economic growth were analyzed for Developing Asian Countries by using data over the period 1980-2012 via the panel data analysis methods which consider cross-sectional dependency and multiple structural breaks. Cross-sectional dependence has been analyzed with CDLMadj of Pesaran and Yamagata (2008) and it was seen cross-sectional dependence among these countries. Stationarity of the series has been tested by means of the PANKPSS panel unit root test with multiple structural breaks of Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2005). It was seen series non-stationary in level and they became stationary in the first difference. Cointegration relationship between series was tested via the panel cointegration test with multiple structural breaks by developed Basher and Westerlund (2009) and cointegration relationship has been observed. Cointegration coefficients were estimated by means of the CCE and CCMGE methods by developed Pesaran (2006b). In the result of analysis, it has been determined that exports affects to economic growth positive and significantly, percent 10 increase in export, increases the economic growth by percent 1 in these countries.

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