Hüseyin ŞEN, AYŞE KAYA

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Alternatif Göstergeler Bazında Türkiye’de Optimal Kamu Kesimi Büyüklüğünün Tahmini

Bu çalışma, farklı kamu kesimi büyüklüğü göstergeleri bazında, 2006:1?2016:2 dönemi için Türkiye’de optimal kamu kesimi büyüklüğünü ampirik olarak tahmin etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu doğrultuda çalışmada TAR [eşik otoregresif] modelinden istifade edilerek eşik değerler elde edilmektedir. Çalışmanın temel bulguları, ekonomik büyümeyi maksimize eden optimal kamu kesimi büyüklüğünün, ölçüme esas alınan kamu kesimi büyüklüğü göstergesine göre farklılık gösterdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Buna göre, Türkiye’de, kamu kesimi büyüklüğü göstergesi olarak kamu tüketim harcamaları optimalin üzerinde, kamu yatırım harcamaları ise optimalin altındadır. Kamu tüketim harcamaları kategorisinde yer alan kalkınma carileri [eğitim ve sağlık harcamaları] ile savunma harcamalarının da yine optimalin altında gerçekleştiği görülmektedir. Öte yandan ampirik bulgular, hem dolaylı hem de dolaysız vergilerin gerçekleşme oranlarının, optimal kamu kesimi büyüklüğünün üzerinde olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

Estimation of Optimal Government Size on the Basis of Alternative Indicators in Turkey

This study aims to estimate empirically the optimal government size on the basis of different indicators of the government size for the period 2006:1?2016:2 in Turkey. Against this background, threshold values are obtained by utilizing TAR [threshold autoregressive] model. The main findings of the study suggest that the optimal government size, that is, growth?maximizing level of government size, varies with indicator considered for government size. Accordingly, as a proxy of government size, government consumption expenditures are above its optimal level, but government investment expenditures are below its optimal level in Turkey. The human capital expenditures, that is, education and health expenditures, in public consumption and the defense expenditures, are also under the optimal level. Along the similar lines, our empirical findings point to that both direct and indirect taxes are above their optimal level.
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Bankacılar-Cover
  • ISSN: 1300-0217
  • Başlangıç: 1990
  • Yayıncı: Türkiye Bankalar Birliği
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