Rusya Dış Politikasında Orta Doğu: Arap Baharı Sonrası Tehditler ve Fırsatlar

Orta Doğu’da 2010 yılı sonunda başlayan Arap ayaklanmaları yeni bir bölgesel düzeninin oluşmasına ve küresel aktörlerin pozisyonlarının yeniden tanımlanmasına yol açmıştır. Bu durumdan etkilenen dış güçlerden birisi de Rusya’dır. Rusya’nın Arap Baharı’na yönelik politikası ülkeler bazında farklılık göstermektedir. Özellikle, Libya’daki gelişmeler Rusya için ciddi bir kırılma noktası olmuş, ilk etapta, halk hareketlerini destekler bir görünüm çizen ve Batıyla uyumlu politikalar izleyen Rus yönetimi, Libya iç savaşı ve uluslararası müdahale sonrasında Batıdan uzaklaşmıştır. Arap Baharı, Rusya dış politikası açısından yeni krizler ve fırsatlar yaratmıştır. Rusya bölgesel değişiklikleri kendi lehine çevirip, Orta Doğu’da yeniden etkin bir aktör olmayı hedeflemektedir. Rusya’nın Arap Baharı sonrası Orta Doğu’ya yönelik dış politikasında küresel bir güç olmayı hedeflemesinin yanısıra, iç tehdit algılamalarının, ekonomik ve güvenlik çıkarlarının da önemli bir rol oynadığı değerlendirilmektedir. Rusya, Arap Baharı’nın yarattığı demokrasi talepleri ve İslami siyasetin yükselişinin kendi ülkesine sıçramasından tehdit algılamıştır. Bu makale, Rusya’nın Orta Doğu’daki tarihsel rolü ışığında, Arap Baharı ve sonrasında Rusya’nın bölgedeki politikalarını incelemeyi ve başarı ve sınırlılıklarını analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır.

Middle East in Russian Foreign Policy: Threats and Opportunities After the Arab Spring

Arab uprisings which started in the Middle East at the end of 2010 led to the emergence of a new regional order and the redefinition of the position of the global actors. Russia is one of the external actors which was affected by this situation. Russia’s foreign policy towards the Arab Spring varies from country to country. In particular, the developments in Libya became a serious breaking point for Russia. The Russian government, which had supported public movements and pursued policies in harmony with the West at the initial stage, started to distance itself after the Libyan civil war and the international intervention in Libya. Arab Spring created new opportunities and threats for Russian foreign policy. Russia tries to re-consolidate itself as an active actor through turning regional changes to its advantage. In addition to Russia’s goal to become a global actor, domestic threat perceptions and the economic, security interests also play a role in Russia’s foreign policy towards the Middle East. Russia has been threatened by the fact that the democratic demands inspired by the Arab Spring and the rise of political Islam might spread to its own country. This article aims to analyze Russia’s regional policies towards the Middle East during and in the aftermath of the Arab Spring in the light of its historical role in the region.

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Kaynak Göster