Merter AKINCI, Ergün AKTÜRK, Ömer YILMAZ

Petrol Fiyatları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Opec ve Petrol İthalatçısı Ülkeler İçin Zaman Serisi Analizi / The Relationship Between Oil Prices and Economic Growth: Time Series Analysis for the Opec and Oil-Imported Countries

Öz: Dünya ekonomileri için yarattığı uzun dönemli makroekonomik etkiler nedeniyle

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Petrol Fiyatları, Ekonomik Büyüme, Zaman Serisi Analizi

The relationship between oil prices and economic growth is the subject of many studies because oil price creates long-term macroeconomic impacts for the World economies. In this paper, therefore, the relationship between oil prices and economic growth is investigated by using time series analysis over the period of 1980–2011 for the OPEC and oil-imported countries. The results of time series analysis show that a rise in oil price creates a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth for some oil-imported countries and a negative statistically significant effect on economic growth in Kiribati; besides, this positive relation arises only for the UAE that is a member of the OPEC. In addition, it is observed for some countries that both cointegration and causal relationships occur between the mentioned variables.

Keywords:

Oil Prices, Economic Growth, Time Series Analysis,

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