OPEC Üyesi Orta Doğu Ülkelerinde CO2 Emisyonu, Enerji Tüketimi ve Ticari Açıklık: Panel ARDL Yaklaşımı

Öz Çalışmanın amacı 6 Orta doğu OPEC ülkesinde (İran, Irak, Katar, Suudi Arabistan, Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri, Kuveyt) karbondioksit emisyonu (CO2), enerji tüketimi ve ticari açıklık arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktır. Bu amaçla CO2 emisyonunun, enerji tüketiminin ve ticari açıklığın hem uzun dönem hem de kısa dönem etkileri araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada 2003-2014 dönemine ait panel veriler kullanılmıştır. Analizde Panel ARDL-Havuzlanmış Ortalama Grup (PMG) tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Ardından değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Panel Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli (VECM) ile test edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucuna göre i) enerji tüketimi katsayısı sadece uzun dönemde istatiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif, ticari açıklık katsayısı ise uzun dönemde istatiksel olarak anlamlı ve negatif iken kısa dönemde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif olarak tespit edilmiştir, ii) Kısa dönem nedensellik analizine göre ise sadece enerji tüketiminden CO2 emisyonuna tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Uzun dönemde ise CO2 emisyonundan ticari açıklık ve enerji tüketimine tek yönlü, enerji tüketimi ile ticari açıklık arasında ise çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

CO2 Emisyonu, Enerji Tüketimi, Ticari Açıklık, OPEC

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