NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICT AND THE HOLISTIC ANALYSIS OF THE INTRACTABILITY

The Nagorno Karabakh Conflict turned into an “intractable” conflict since the parties did not compromise despite the longlasting efforts of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The realist approaches, which dominate the Conflict Analysis and Resolution (CAR) field, cannot fully explain the complex dynamics of the intractable conflicts due to their power-oriented logic focusing on the system-level analysis. The evolving constructivist literature could not abundantly engage in CAR field despite it contains useful insights for the conflict analysis. This study assumes that the dynamics of the intractability can be explored by examining the mutual constitution of the material and ideational factors by considering the interplays at the unitregional, and system levels. In this regard, this study aspires to develop an analytical approach by enhancing the analytical framework of the Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT), which enables the integrated use of the realist and constructivist assumptions and the conduct of the analysis at all levels, with the constructivist assumptions and contribute to constructivist research in CAR field. In the light of the case study, this work proposes an analytical framework, which conducts the analysis of the intractability in a nonlinear way and rests on the inference that material and ideational factors generate different effects on the protraction at various levels.

DAĞLIK KARABAĞ ÇATIŞMASI VE ÇÖZÜMSÜZLÜĞÜN BÜTÜNCÜL ANALİZİ

Dağlık Karabağ Çatışması, Avrupa Güvenlik ve İşbirliği Teşkilatı (AGİT)’nın yıllardır devam eden çabalarına rağmen tarafların anlaşamaması nedeniyle çözümsüz bir çatışmaya dönüşmüştür. Çatışma Analizi ve Çözümü (ÇAÇ) alanında yaygın olan gerçekçi yaklaşımlar, “çözümsüzlüğün” nedenlerini güç odaklı mantıkları ve sistem seviyesine odaklanmaları nedeniyle tam olarak açıklayamamaktadırlar. Son yıllarda gittikçe gelişen inşacı teori ise ÇAÇ alanında oldukça önemli öngörüler içermesine rağmen bahse konu alana henüz yeterli seviyede katkı sağlayamamıştır. “Çözümsüzlüğe” yol açan dinamiklerinin; çatışmaların nedeni olan maddesel ve düşünsel etkenlerin birbirlerine olan etkilerinin bütüncül bir yaklaşımla; sistem, bölge ve aktör analiz seviyeleri dikkate alınarak incelenmesi suretiyle belirlenebileceği öngörülmektedir. Bu bağlamda, çalışmanın temel amacı, gerçekçi ve inşacı yaklaşımları birlikte kullanmaya imkân veren Bölgesel Güvenlik Kompleksleri Teorisinin tüm analiz seviyelerini esas alan analitik çerçevesinin, inşacı öngörüler ile zenginleştirilerek “çözümsüzlüğün” analizinde kullanılabilecek bir analitik yaklaşım geliştirmek ve ÇAÇ alanındaki inşacı araştırmalara katkı sunmaktır. Vaka analizi ışığında, çözümsüzlüğün analizinde doğrusal olmayan bir yöntemi esas alan; maddesel ve düşünsel etkenlerin çözümsüzlüğe farklı seviyelerde farklı tesirler yaptığı tespitlerine dayanan bir analitik yaklaşım sunulmuştur.

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