NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICT AND THE HOLISTIC ANALYSIS OF THE INTRACTABILITY

The Nagorno Karabakh Conflict turned into an “intractable” conflict since the parties did not compromise despite the longlasting efforts of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The realist approaches, which dominate the Conflict Analysis and Resolution (CAR) field, cannot fully explain the complex dynamics of the intractable conflicts due to their power-oriented logic focusing on the system-level analysis. The evolving constructivist literature could not abundantly engage in CAR field despite it contains useful insights for the conflict analysis. This study assumes that the dynamics of the intractability can be explored by examining the mutual constitution of the material and ideational factors by considering the interplays at the unitregional, and system levels. In this regard, this study aspires to develop an analytical approach by enhancing the analytical framework of the Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT), which enables the integrated use of the realist and constructivist assumptions and the conduct of the analysis at all levels, with the constructivist assumptions and contribute to constructivist research in CAR field. In the light of the case study, this work proposes an analytical framework, which conducts the analysis of the intractability in a nonlinear way and rests on the inference that material and ideational factors generate different effects on the protraction at various levels.

DAĞLIK KARABAĞ ÇATIŞMASI VE ÇÖZÜMSÜZLÜĞÜN BÜTÜNCÜL ANALİZİ

Dağlık Karabağ Çatışması, Avrupa Güvenlik ve İşbirliği Teşkilatı (AGİT)’nın yıllardır devam eden çabalarına rağmen tarafların anlaşamaması nedeniyle çözümsüz bir çatışmaya dönüşmüştür. Çatışma Analizi ve Çözümü (ÇAÇ) alanında yaygın olan gerçekçi yaklaşımlar, “çözümsüzlüğün” nedenlerini güç odaklı mantıkları ve sistem seviyesine odaklanmaları nedeniyle tam olarak açıklayamamaktadırlar. Son yıllarda gittikçe gelişen inşacı teori ise ÇAÇ alanında oldukça önemli öngörüler içermesine rağmen bahse konu alana henüz yeterli seviyede katkı sağlayamamıştır. “Çözümsüzlüğe” yol açan dinamiklerinin; çatışmaların nedeni olan maddesel ve düşünsel etkenlerin birbirlerine olan etkilerinin bütüncül bir yaklaşımla; sistem, bölge ve aktör analiz seviyeleri dikkate alınarak incelenmesi suretiyle belirlenebileceği öngörülmektedir. Bu bağlamda, çalışmanın temel amacı, gerçekçi ve inşacı yaklaşımları birlikte kullanmaya imkân veren Bölgesel Güvenlik Kompleksleri Teorisinin tüm analiz seviyelerini esas alan analitik çerçevesinin, inşacı öngörüler ile zenginleştirilerek “çözümsüzlüğün” analizinde kullanılabilecek bir analitik yaklaşım geliştirmek ve ÇAÇ alanındaki inşacı araştırmalara katkı sunmaktır. Vaka analizi ışığında, çözümsüzlüğün analizinde doğrusal olmayan bir yöntemi esas alan; maddesel ve düşünsel etkenlerin çözümsüzlüğe farklı seviyelerde farklı tesirler yaptığı tespitlerine dayanan bir analitik yaklaşım sunulmuştur.

Kaynakça

Abushov, Kavus (2009), “Policing the Near Abroad: Russian Foreign Policy in the South Caucasus”, Australian Journal of International Affairs, 63 (2): 187-212.

Balayev, Bahruz (2013), The Right to Self-determination in the South Caucasus: Nagorno Karabakh in Context (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield).

Başer, Bahar (2008), “Third Party Mediation in Nagorno Karabakh: Part of the Cure or Part of the Disease?”, Orta Asya ve Kafkasya Araştırmaları Dergisi, 3 (5): 86-114.

Buzan, Barry and Ole Wæver (2003), Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).

Brzezinski, Zbigniew (1998), The Grand Chessboard (New York: Basic Books).

Chen, Sim Li (1999), “In search of security: Azerbaijan and the role of oil in the Caspian Sea”, Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, 15 (3): 24- 53.

Cohen, Ariel (2013), “Azerbaijan and U.S. Interests in the South Caucasus: Twenty Years after Independence”, Diba, Nigâr, Göksel and Zaur Shiriyev (Eds.), The Geopolitical Scene of the Caucasus: A Decade of Perspectives (Istanbul: Toplumsal Katılım ve Gelişim Vakfı, Pasifik Offset Ltd. Şti.): 51-81.

Coleman, P. T. (2000), “Intractable Conflict”, M. Deutsch and P. T. Coleman (Eds.), The Handbook of Conflict Resolution: Theory and Practice (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.): 428-450.

Coleman, P. T. (2006), “Intractable Conflict” , M. Deutsch, P. T. Coleman and E. C. Marcus (Eds.), The handbook of conflict resolution: Theory and practice (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.): 533-559.

Cornell, Svante E. (1999), “The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict” , Report no. 46, Department of East European Studies, Uppsala University, https://is.muni.cz/el/1423/podzim2012/MVZ208/um/35586974/Cornell_The _Nagorno-Karabakh_Conflict.pdf (05.09.2018).

Cornell, Svante, E. (2001), Small Nations and Great Powers: A Study of Ethnopolitical Conflict in the Caucasus (London, New York: Routledge Curzon Press).

Crocker, Chester A., Fen Osler Hampson and Pamela Aall (2004), Taming Intractable Conflicts: Mediation in the Hardest Cases (Washington DC: USIP Press).

Croissant, Michael, P. (1997), “U.S. interests in the Caspian Sea Basin” , Comparative Strategy, 16 (4): 353-367.

De Haas, Marcel (2009), “Medvedev’s Security Policy: A Provisional Assessment”, Russian Analytical Digest, 62: 2-5.

Doc-1 (2012), BP Statistical Review of World Energy, bp.com/statisticalreview Doc-2 (2005), “Nagorno-Karabakh: Viewing The Conflict From The Ground” , International Crisis Group, Report No: 166, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/europe/,08.02.2012 (14.09.2005).

Doc-3 (2015), Why Armenia turned to Russia instead of the West, https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2015/05/07/whyarmenia-turned-to-russia-instead-of-the-west/ (7.5.2015).

Fotiou, Eleni (2009), “Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform: What is at Stake for Regional Cooperation?”, ICBSS Policy Brief, No. 16, http://icbss.org/index.php?cid=196&pid=924 (15.07.2018).

Freire, M., R. and L. Simão (2013), “From words to deeds: European Union democracy promotion in Armenia”, East European Politics, 29 (2): 175-189.

German, Tracey, C. (2008), “Corridor of Power: The Caucasus and Energy Security”, Caucasian Review of International Affairs, 2 (2): 64-72.

German, Tracey, C. (2012), “Securing the South Caucasus: Military Aspects of Russian Policy towards the Region since 2008”, Europe-Asia Studies, 64 (9): 1650-1666.

Henze, Paul (2000), “Strategic Universe of the States in the South Caucasus”, Conference Report: Central Asia and the South Caucasus: Reorientations, Internal Transitions, and Strategic Dynamics-C, https://www.fas.org/irp/nic/central_asia.html (16.3.2014 12.28).

Herzig, Edmund (2000), The New Caucasus: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs).

Hovannisian, R., G. (1994), “Historical Memory and Foreign Relations: The Armenian Perspective”, Starr, S., F. (Ed.), Russia: The Legacy of History in Russia and the New States of Eurasia (New York: M. E. Sharpe Inc.): 237-276. http://www.ecosecretariat.org/ (10.12.2012).

Hunter, T., S. (2000), “The Evolution of The Foreign Policy of the Transcaucasian States,” Bertsch, G., K., C. Craft, S.A. Jones and M. Beck (Eds.), Crossroads and conflict: security and foreign policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia (New York: Routledge): 25-47.

Hunter, T., S. (2006), The Transcaucasus in Transition Nation-Building and Conflict (Washington D.C.: The Center for Strategic and International Studies).

Jackson, Richard, (2009), “Constructivism and Conflict Resolution, Bercovitch, Jacob, Victor Kremenyuk and William Zartman (Eds.), The SAGE Handbook of Conflict Resolution (London: SAGE Publications): 173-189.

Kakachia, Kornely, K. (2011), “Challenges to the South Caucasus regional security aftermath of Russian-Georgian conflict: Hegemonic stability or new partnership?”, Journal of Eurasian Studies, 2 (1): 15-20.

Karakoç, E., A. (2011), “Brief Overview on Karabakh History from Past to Today”, International Journal of Human Sciences, 8 (2): 1002-1024.

Lederach, J., P. (1997), Building Peace: Sustainable Reconciliation in Divided Societies (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace Press).

Libaridian, G., J. (2004), Modern Armenia: people, nation, state (New Brunswick, New Jersey: Transaction Publishers).

Melander, Erik (2001), “The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Revisited: Was the War Inevitable?”, Journal of Cold War Studies, 3 (2): 48-75.

Markedonov, Sergey (2013), The Caucasus Region: From the Geopolitical Periphery to an Arena of Competitive Interests, Diba, Nigâr, Göksel and Zaur Shiriyev (Eds.), The Geopolitical Scene of the Caucasus: A Decade of Perspectives (Istanbul: Toplumsal Katılım ve Gelişim Vakfı, Pasifik Offset Ltd. Şti.): 29-49.

Mehdiyeva, Nazrin (2003), “Azerbaijan and its foreign policy dilemma”, Asian Affairs, 34 (3): 271-285.

Minassian, Gaidz (2008), “Armenia, a Russian Outpost in the Caucasus?”, Russie. Nei. Visions, Russia/NIS Center, (27), www.ifri.org (05.01.2016, 23:49).

Moga, Teodor, L. (2012), “The Eastern Neighborhood of The EU Grand Chessboards”, CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, 4 (3): 385-395, https://ideas.repec.org/a/jes/wpaper/y2012v4i3p385-395.html (12.08.2018).

Nasibli, Yunis (2008), “Russia as a Key Player in the South Caucasian Region” , Geistlinger, Michael, Francesca Longo, Gocha Lordkipanidze and Yunis Nasibli (Eds.), Security Identity and the Southern Caucasus: The Role of the EU, the US and Russia (Wien, Graz: Neuer Wissenschaftlicher Verlag): 131-146.

Nation, Craig (2007), “Russia, the United States, and the Caucasus”, http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/ (01.06.2012, 16:44).

Nichol, Jim (2013), “Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia: Political Developments and Implications for U.S. Interests”, Congressional Research Service, www.crs.gov (14.11.2013).

Nuriyev, Elkhan, E. (2000), “Conflicts, Caspian Oil, and NATO: Major Pieces of the Caucasus Puzzle”, Bertsch. G., K., C. Craft, S.A. Jones and M. Beck (Eds.), Crossroads and conflict: security and foreign policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia (New York: Routledge): 140-151.

Pearce, W. Barnett and Stephen W. Littlejohn (1997), Moral Conflict: When Social Worlds Collide (Thousand Oaks, California: Sage).

Rasizade, Alec (2003), “Azerbaijan in transition to the New Age of Democracy”, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 36 (3): 345-372.

Rondeli, Alexander (2000), “Regional Security Prospects in the Caucasus”, Bertsch. G., K., C. Craft, S.A. Jones and M. Beck (Eds.), Crossroads and conflict: security and foreign policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia (New York: Routledge): 48-54.

Schroeder, Paul W. (1994), “Historical Reality vs. Neo-Realist Theory”, International Security, 19 (1): 108-148.

Suny, Ronald G. (2000), “Provisional Stabilities: The Politics of Identities in PostSoviet Eurasia”, International Security 24 (3): 139-178.

Suny, Ronald, G. (2010), “The pawn of Great Powers: The East-West competition for Caucasia”, Journal of Eurasian Studies, 1 (1): 10-25.

Swietochowski, T. (1995), Russia and Azerbaijan: A Borderland in Transition (New York: Columbia University Press).

Tokluoglu, Ceylan (2012), “Perceptions of State and Leadership in post-Soviet Azerbaijan (1991–2009),” Middle Eastern Studies, 48 (3): 319-343.

Tsantoulis, Yannis (2009), “Geopolitics, (Sub)regionalism, Discourse and a Troubled ‘Power Triangle’ in the Black Sea”, Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 9 (3): 243-258.

Valdez, J. (1995), “The Near Abroad, the West, and National Identity in Russian Foreign Policy”, Dawisha A. and K. Dawisha (Eds.) The Making of Foreign Policy in Russia and the New States of Eurasia (New York: M. E. Sharpe Inc): 84-110.

Valigholizadeh, Ali, Yashar Zaki, and Barani, Zoghi Kazem (2013), “An analytical study of geopolitical consequences of normalization of Turkish Armenian relations”, Journal of Eurasian Studies, 4: 197-206, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euras.2013.03.009, (14.07.2014).

Waltz, Kenneth N. (1979), Theory of International Politics (New York: Random House).

Wendt, Alexander (1999), Social Theory of International Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).

Zacher, Mark W. (2001), “The Territorial Integrity Norm: International Boundaries and the Use of Force,” International Organization; Spring, 55 (2): 215- 250.

Zartman, I. William (2005), “Analyzing Intractability”, Crocker, Chester, A, Fen Osler Hampson and Pamela Aall (Eds.), Grasping the Nettle: Analyzing Cases of Intractable Conflict (Washington DC: USIP Press): 47-64.

Kaynak Göster