ASKERİ FANTEZİLER: ULUSLARARASI İLİŞKİLERDE İMKÂNSIZIN SİYASETİ

Öngörülemez tehlikeler, özellikle de 11 Eylül 2001 tarihinde ABD’de gerçekleşen terör saldırılarının ardından, devletlerin güvenlik ve askeri stratejilerinde merkezî konuma oturdu. Bu yazıda bu dönüşümün (açık tehditlerden çok, tehlike olasılıklarına, potansiyel risklere odaklı güvenlik siyasetine geçişin) önemli bir boyutu olan askeri fütürolojinin başta ABD ordusu olmak üzere birçok Batılı ordunun gündeminde ön plana çıkmasına yoğunlaşıyorum. Bu doğrultuda “askeri fantezileri” kurumsal ve söylemsel analize tabi tutarak, ne tür varsayımların bu fantezilere kaynaklık ettiğini, ne tür askeri senaryoların bu şekilde dolaşıma sokulduğunu, söz konusu askeri fantezilerin 21. yüzyıl küresel siyaseti açısından ne anlama geldiğini inceliyorum. Temel savım, kesin tehlikelerin yerini, olası risklere bıraktığı güvensizlik ortamında, tahayyülün kendisinin bir savaş alanı haline geldiği yönünde. Olma olasılığı bile kesin olarak bilinemeyen risklere hazırlıklı olma arzusunun bir yansıması olan bu fantezilerin, geleceği tahakküm altına alma çabasının bir ifadesi olmakla birlikte, aslında bugünün üzerinde hakimiyet kurmayı perçinlediğini vurguluyorum.

MILITARY FANTASIES: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND THE POLITICS OF THE (IM)POSSIBLE

In this article, I take my departure point the reconceptualization of the very idea of security in the 21st century and the concomitant shift in the logic of security governance from the management of calculable risks towards management of incalculable, uncertifiable risks, and attend to the ways in which this shift has reflected in military strategic thought and planning. I focus on contemporary military futurology and analyze “military fantasies” as a discursive medium through which security constitutes and projects itself onto the world. I argue that under the logic of risk that drives contemporary politics of security, imagination itself has become a battlefield. Although the fascination of politics and strategic thought with the future is not a novel development, I note that the contemporary attempts to govern the future by pre-empting any surprises is very much tied to the desire to rule the present.

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