Evidence for the Reliance of Equities on Liquidity and Bank Credit in the Agriculture Sector in Turkey

The study aims to determine the potential of a long-run relation among liquidity indicators and equities in the agriculture sector along with the usage of bank credit. The study runs general linear regressions for which it shares the results and it adds up a set of supplementary analysis on stability diagnostics including leverage plots and recursive estimation. The significant findings reveal that the level of equities in the agriculture sector is a function of bank credit used at a level which could also be predicted by the first two famous liquidity indicators namely current ratio and acid-test ratio. Therefore, any incentive easing the access to bank credit finance for the firms of agriculture sector would better be substituted with other encouragements which will rather promote the accumulation of equities so as to attain a sustainable finance with healthy liquid assets and the limited bank credit contribution.

Türkiye Tarım Sektörü Örneğinde Öz Kaynakların Likidite ve Banka Kredisi Bağımlılığı

Çalışma, tarım sektöründe likidite göstergeleri ve öz kaynaklar arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki potansiyeli ile birlikte banka kredisi kullanımını belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışma, sonuçlarını paylaştığı genel doğrusal regresyonlar ile kararlılık üzerine kaldıraç noktaları ve özyinelemeli tahmin için bir takım ilave analizleri de içermektedir. Yüksek anlamlılık derecesindeki çalışma bulguları, tarım sektöründe öz kaynakların düzeyinin kullanılan banka kredisinin bir fonksiyonu olduğunu ve aynı zamanda iki meşhur likidite göstergesi olan cari oran ve asit-test oranı ile de tahmin edilebileceğini ortaya koymaktadırlar. Bu nedenle, tarım sektöründe yer alan işletmeler için banka kredisi ile finansmana ulaşmayı kolaylaştıran teşviklerin, sağlıklı likit varlıklar ve sınırlı banka kredisi kullanımının da katkısıyla sürdürülebilir finansmana ulaşmak için daha çok öz kaynakların birikimine yol açacak diğer özendirme önlemleri ile ikame edilmeleri yerinde olacaktır.

___

Abdou, H.A., Pointon, J., 2011. Credit scoring, statistical techniques and evaluation criteria: a review of the literature. Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, 18: 59-88.

Acikgoz, A.F., Apak, S., Erbay, E.R., 2016. A long-term appraisal of the corporate liquidity dynamics in the selected nonfinancial sectors: Evidence from Turkey. International Balkan and Near Eastern Social Sciences (IBANESS) Conference Series, Faculty of Economics, October 28-30, 2016, University of St. Kliment Ohridski, Prilep – Republic of Macedonia, Proceedings Book: 101-107.

Acikgoz, A.F., Apak, S., Demirkol, C., 2018. Non-cash components of net working capital: A long-term outlook of the agriculture sector in Turkey. International Balkan and Near Eastern Social Sciences (IBANESS) Conference Series, March 24-25, 2018, Tekirdag, Turkey, Proceedings Book Volume I: 64-72.

Akaike, H., 1973. Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle. In: Petrov, B.N. and Csaki, F., Eds., Second International Symposium on Information Theory, Budapest. 267-281.

Akaike, H., 1974. A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control. AC-19: 716–723.

Akaike, H., 1979. A bayesian extension of the minimum AIC procedure of autoregressive model fitting. Biometrika 66 (2): 237-242.

Al-Attar, A., Hussain, S., 2004. Corporate data and future cash flows. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 31(7-8): 861- 903.

Altman, E.I., 1968. Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4): 589-609.

Altman, E. I., Narayan, P., 1997. An international survey of business failure classification models. Financial Markets, Institutions and Instruments, 6(2): 1-57.

Andrews, D.W.K., 1991. Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix estimation. Econometrica, 59: 817–858.

Apak, S., Acikgoz, A.F., Erbay, E.R., Tuncer, G., 2016. Cash vs. net working capital as strategic tools for the long-term relation between bank credits and liquidity: inequalities in Turkey. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 235: 648-655.

Bartlett, M.S., 1950. Tests of significance in factor analysis. British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology 3 (2): 77-85.

Beaver, W.H., 1966. Financial ratios as predictors of failure. Journal of Accounting Research, 4 (Empirical Research in Accounting: Selected Studies): 71-111.

Belsley, D.A., Kuh, E., Welsch, R.E., 2004. Regression diagnostics, identifying influential data and sources of collinearity. Wiley, New Jersey.

Breusch, T.S., 1978. Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models. Australian Economic Papers 17: 335-355.

Breusch, T.S., Pagan, A. R., 1979. Simple test for heteroscedasticity and random coefficient variation. Econometrica (The Econometric Society) 47 (5): 1287-1294.

Brown, R.L., Durbin, J., Evans, J.M., 1975. Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 37(2): 149-192.

CBRT (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, 2018). CBRT Real Sector Statistics 1999- 2017, Real Sector Balance Sheet Data and Archives for 1996–2016, last reached at http://www.tcmb.gov.tr on 5th of May, 2018.

Chen, T., Liao, H., Lu, C., 2011. A flow-based corporate credit model. Rev Quant Finan Acc., 36: 517-532.

Collins, R.A., 1985. Expected utility, debtequity structure, and risk balancing. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 67 (3): 627-629.

Coyle, B., 2000a. Corporate Credit Analysis. Glenlake Publishing Company Ltd, Chicago, London, New Delhi, AMACOM, American Management Association (AMA) Publications, The Chartered Institute of Bankers, New York.

Coyle, B., 2000b. Cash Flow Forecasting and Liquidity. Glenlake Publishing Company Ltd, Chicago, London, New Delhi, AMACOM, American Management Association (AMA), The Chartered Institute of Bankers, New York.

Cronbach, L.J., 1951. Coefficient alpha and the internal structure of tests. Psychometrika, 16: 297-334.

Cronbach, L.J., 2004. My current thoughts on coefficient alpha and successor procedures. Educational and Psychological Measurement 64, 391–418.

Dasgupta, S., Li, E.X.N., Yan, D., 2014. Inventory behavior and financial constraints: theory and evidence (November 26, 2017). Asian Finance Association (AsianFA) 2014 Conference Paper; 27th Australasian Finance and Banking Conference 2014 Paper; Swedish House of Finance Research Paper No. 16- 17. Last revised on 3 December 2017. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2395018.

Dickey, D.A., Fuller, W.A., 1979. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74: 427- 431.

Drever, M., Hutchinson, P., 2007. Industry differences in the determinants of the liquidity of Australian small and medium sized enterprises. Small Enterprise Research, 15(1): 60-76.

Durbin, J., Watson, G.S. 1950. Testing for serial correlation in least squares regression. Biometrika. 37: 409-428.

Durbin, J., 1970. Testing for serial correlation in least squares regression when some of the regressors are lagged dependent variables. Econometrica 38: 4410-4421.

Durbin, J., Watson, G.S., 1971. Testing for serial correlation in least squares regression III. Biometrika 58: 1-19.

Enders, W., 2003. Applied econometric time series. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.

Engle, R.F., Granger, C.W.J., 1987. Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55(2): 251-276.

Featherstone, A.M., Wilson, C.A., Kastens, T.L., Jones, J. D., 2007. Factors affecting the agricultural loan decision-making process. Agricultural Finance Review, 67 (1): 13-33.

Fisher, R.A., 1925. Statistical Methods for Research Workers, Oliver & Boyd., Edinburgh.

Fisher, R.A., 1932. Statistical Methods for Research Workers, 4th Edition, Edinburgh: Oliver & Boyd.

Frank, M.Z., Goyal, V.K., 2003. Testing the pecking order theory of capital structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 67: 217- 248.

Friedman, M., 1937. The use of ranks to avoid the assumption of normality implicit in the analysis of variance. Journal of the American Statistical Association 32 (200): 675-701.

Friedman, M., 1939. A correction: the use of ranks to avoid the assumption of normality implicit in the analysis of variance. Journal of the American Statistical Association 34 (205): 109-109.

Godfrey, L., 1978a. Testing against general autoregressive and moving average error models when the regressors include lagged dependent variables. Econometrica 46: 1293-1302.

Godfrey, L.G., 1978b. Testing for multiplicative heteroscedasticity. Journal of Econometrics 8 227-236.

Granger, C.W.J., 1969. Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3): 424-438.

Granger, C.W.J., Newbold, P., 1974. Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2: 111-120.

Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., 2003. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics 115: 53-74.

Jarque, C.M., Bera, A. K., 1980. Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals. Economics Letters 6: 255-259.

Jarque, C.M., Bera, A.K., 1987. A test for normality of observations and regression residuals. International Statistical Review 55: 163-172.

Johansen, S., 1988. Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Econ. Dynamics and Control, 12: 231-254. Johansen, S., 1995. Likelihood-based influence in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Keefe, M.O., Yaghoubi, M., 2016. The influence of cash flow volatility on capital structure and the use of debt of different maturities. Journal of Corporate Finance, 38: 18-36.

Kutner, M.H., Nachtsheim, C.J., Neter, J., Li, W., 2005. Applied Linear Statistical Models. 5th edition, McGraw-Hill-Irwin, New York.

Levin, A., Lin, C.F., Chu, C., 2002. Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finitesample properties. Journal of Econometrics 108: 1-24. Lutkepohl, H., 1991. Introduction to multiple time series analysis. Springer New York, USA.

Lutkepohl, H., 2004. Vector autoregressive and vector error correction models. In H. Lutkepohl and M. Kratzig (eds), Applied Time Series Econometrics (86–158) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

MacKinnon, J.G., Haug, A., Michelis, L., 1999. Numerical distribution functions of likelihood ratio tests for cointegration. Journal of Applied Econometrics 14 (5): 563-577.

Min, J.H., Lee, Y., 2008. A practical approach to credit scoring. Expert Systems with Applications, 35: 1762-1770.

Newey, W.K., West, K.D., 1987. A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix. Econometrica 55 (3), 703–708.

Newey, W.K., West, K.D., 1994. Automatic lag selection in covariance matrix estimation. Review of Economic Studies, 61: 631– 653.

Novak, J., Suvova, H., Vondracek, J., 2002. Multivariate statistical methods as a tool of financial analysis of farm businesses. Agric. Econ., 48(1): 9-12.

Pearson, K., 1920. Notes on the history of correlation. Biometrika 13: 25-45.

Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., 1998. An autoregressive distributed-lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. Econometric Society Monographs 31: 371-413.

Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., Smith, R.J., 2000. Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I (1) 293-343.

Phillips, P.C. B., Perron, P., 1988. Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika 75: 335-346.

Pindado, J., Rodrigues, L. F., 2004. Parsimonious models of financial insolvency in small companies. Small Business Economics, 22: 51-66.

Pinkowitz, L., Stulz, R.M., Williamson, R., 2016. Do U.S. firms hold more cash than foreign firms do? Rev. Financ. Stud., 29(2): 309-348.

Schwarz, G., 1978. Estimating the dimension of a model, Annals of Statistics 6: 461–464.

Sims, C. A., 1980. Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica, 48(1): 1-48.

Sims, C.A., 1992. Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts: the effects of monetary policy. European Economic Review, 36 (5): 975-1000.

Sohn, S.Y., Kim, Y.S., 2013. Behavioral credit scoring model for technology-based firms that considers uncertain financial ratios obtained from relationship banking. Small Business Economics, 41: 931-943.

Stekla, J., Grycova, M., 2016. The relationship between profitability and capital structure of the agricultural holdings in the Czech Republic. Agric. Econ. – Czech, 62, 2016 (9): 421-428.

Steyn, W., Hamman, W.D., Smit, E., 2002. The danger of high growth combined with a large non-cash working capital base. South African Journal of Business Management, 33(1): 41-47.

Sun, L., Ford, J.L., Dickinson, D.G., 2010. Bank loans and the effects of monetary policy in China: VAR/ VECM approach. China Economic Review, 21: 65-97.

Tukey, J.W., 1949. One Degree of Freedom for Non-Additivity. Biometrics 5: 232-242.
Alatarım-Cover
  • ISSN: 1304-2653
  • Başlangıç: 2015
  • Yayıncı: Alata Bahçe Kültürleri Araştırma Enstitüsü
Sayıdaki Diğer Makaleler

Bazı Trabzon Hurması Türlerinin Anaçlık Özelliklerinin Belirlenmesi

Celil TOPLU, Müge KAMİLOĞLU, Mustafa KAPLANKIRAN, Ercan YILDIZ

Ceviz Yetiştiriciliğine Uygun Alanlar Üzerine İklim Değişikliği Senaryolarının Etkisi

Doğan DOĞAN, Hakan YILDIZ

Türkiye Tarım Sektörü Örneğinde Öz Kaynakların Likidite ve Banka Kredisi Bağımlılığı

Celal DEMİRKOL, Ali Faruk AÇIKGÖZ, Sudi APAK

‘Kütdiken’ Limonunda Yapraktan Farklı Dozda Azot Uygulamalarının Limon Kalitesine ve Muhafazasına Etkileri

Ömür DÜNDAR, Okan ÖZKAYA, Hatice DEMİRCİOĞLU, Emre KÜKÜRT

Evidence for the Reliance of Equities on Liquidity and Bank Credit in the Agriculture Sector in Turkey

Ali Faruk AÇIKGÖZ, Celal DEMİRKOL, Sudi APAK

Yafa Portakalında Meydana Gelen Bir Doğal Mutasyonun Yaprak ve Meyve Özellikleri Bakımından İncelenmesi

Güçer KAFA

Brokoli Yetiştiriciliğinde Farklı Dikim Zamanlarının Bitki Gelişimi ve Verimi Üzerine Etkileri

Ertan YILDIRIM, Ayfer GEDİK

Hıyarlarda Ovül-Ovaryum Kültürlerinde Spermidine ve Putrescine Uygulamalarının Haploid Embriyo Uyartımına Etkileri

M. Hakan EROL, Nebahat SARI

‘Uzun’ Antepfıstığı Çeşidinde Meyve Veren ‘Var’ ve Vermeyen ‘Yok’ Ağaçlarında Bazı Fenolojik ve Pomolojik Özelliklerin Karşılaştırılması

Muhammet Ali GÜNDEŞLİ, Salih KAFKAS, Nesibe Ebru KAFKAS, MURAT GÜNEY

Çukurova Bölgesinde Dolmalık Biber Bitkisinin Toprakaltı Damla Yöntemiyle Sulanması

Yeşim BOZKURT ÇOLAK, Mehmet YILDIZ, Attila YAZAR, Engin GÖNEN