The Impact of Operational Performance on Profitability: An ARDL Approach on Turkish Airlines

In this study, the effect of revenue passenger kilometer, passenger load factor and number of revenue passengers, which are among the commonly used operational performance indicators, on the return on equity was examined by ARDL model specifically for Turkish Airlines. The data set includes 40 observations on a quarterly basis between 2010 and 2019. The study suggests that the passenger load factor has a significant effect on the return on equity. It has been revealed that the revenue passenger kilometer has a low negative effect on the return on equity, and number of revenue passenger has a low positive effect on the return on equity. Empirical results show that when the increase in the number of revenue passenger is not supported by passenger load factor, in other words, because of the flights where the breakeven point is not exceeded in terms of cost, it is evaluated that revenue passenger kilometer and the number of revenue passenger do not affect the return on equity positively.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Return on equity (ROE), operational performance, ARDL approach

Operasyonel Performansın Karlılığa Etkisi: Türk Hava Yolları Üzerine ARDL Yaklaşımı

Bu çalışmada yaygın olarak kullanılan operasyonel performans göstergelerinden ücretli yolcu kilometre, yolcu doluluk oranı ve ücretli yolcu sayısının özsermaye karlılığına etkisi Türk Hava Yolları'na yönelik olarak ARDL modeli ile incelenmiştir. Veri seti, 2010 ile 2019 yılları arasında üç aylık bazda 40 gözlem içermektedir. Çalışma, yolcu doluluk oranının özsermaye karlılığı üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Ücretli yolcu kilometrenin özsermaye karlılığı üzerinde düşük olumsuz etkiye sahip olduğu, ücretli yolcu sayısının ise özsermaye karlılığı üzerinde düşük olumlu etkiye sahip olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar, ücretli yolcu sayısındaki artışın yolcu doluluk oranı ile desteklenmediğinde, bir başka deyişle maliyet açısından başabaş noktasının aşılmadığı uçuşlar nedeniyle, ücretli yolcu kilometre ve ücretli yolcu sayısının özsermaye karlılığını olumlu etkilemediğini göstermektedir.

Keywords:

Özsermaye karlılığı, operasyonel performans, ARDL yaklaşımı,

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