Yeni Normal Dönemde Bireylerin Seyahat Tercihlerinin Davranışsal İktisat Teorileri Açısından Değerlendirilmesi: COVID-19

2020 yılı başından bu yana Yeni Koronavirüs (COVID-19) ile enfekte olan bireylerin tedavi süreci tüm dünyada devam ederken, virüs nedeniyle ölümlerin sayısı hızla artmış ve şimdiye kadar dünya tarihinde karşılaşılmamış bir salgınla küresel çapta mücadele devam etmektedir. COVID-19 salgını sadece sağlık alanında değil yaşamın her alanında etkisini hissettirmektedir ve salgının yayılmasını önlemeye yönelik ekonomik kısıtlamalar tüm insanlar için görülmemiş ve duyulmamış bir kaos ve karmaşıklık çağını başlatmıştır. Salgın sürecinde gerek vaka sayısında, gerekse ölüm oranlarında artış ve azalışlar gerçekleşmiş ve pandeminin hafiflediği dönemlerde normal yaşama dönmek üzere kararlar alınmış olsa da Yeni Normal dönem olarak adlandırılan bu yeni süreçte enfekte olmaktan kaçınmak artık hayatın bir parçası haline gelmiştir. Bu durum, sadece bireylerin yaşamında değil, aynı zamanda ekonomik faaliyetler üzerinde de önemli bir unsur olmuştur. COVID-19 pandemi döneminin daha izole bir yaşam tarzını yaratması, seyahat alışkanlıklarının önemli ölçüde değişmesine neden olmuştur. Bu çalışmada, COVID-19'un bireylerin tatil davranışları üzerindeki etkisi ele alınmaktadır. Çalışmanın çerçevesi davranışsal iktisat için önemli kavramlar olan kayıptan kaçınma, özgeci davranış, sürü etkisi ve devekuşu etkisi gibi yanlı davranışlar temel alınarak oluşturulmuştur. Ele alınan literatüre göre; hükümetlerin politika belirlerken makro amaçların ve makro verilerin yanı sıra bireysel davranışları ve davranış değişikliklerini de dikkate alması gerektiğini söylemek mümkündür. nasıl yankı bulduğu, dönemin süreli yayın organları incelenerek anlaşılmaya ve açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır.

___

  • Abellan-Perpiñan J.M., Bleichrodt H. ve Pinto-Prades J.L. (2009). The predictive validity of prospect theory versus expected utility in health utility measurement. Journal of Health Economics, 28, 1039-1047.
  • Ali, M., Alam, N. ve Syed Aun, R. R. (2020). Coronavirus (Covid-19) — An epidemic or pandemic for financial markets, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27. doi: 10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100341.
  • Albulescu C. T. (2021). Covid-19 and the United States financial markets volatility. Finance research letters, 38, 101699. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101699
  • Anderson L.R, DiTraglia F.J. ve Gerlach JR. (2011). Measuring altruism in a public goods experiment: A comparison of U.S. and Czech subjects. Springer Exp Econ, 14:426–437 doi:10.1007/s10683-011-9274-8
  • Atkeson A., (2020). What Will Be the Economic Impact of Covid-19 In The US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios. National Bureau of Economic Research, (Working Paper 26867).
  • Avery B.C. ve Zemsky P., 1998. Multidimensional Uncertainty and Herd Behavior in Financial Markets. The American Economic Review, 88(4): 724–748.
  • Baars C. ve Tapper J. (2018). Put your head in the sand or lose a grand?, Linköping University: Master Thesis in Economics.
  • Bae S.Y. ve Chang P. (2020). Current issues in tourism the effect of Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) risk perception on behavioural intention towards ‘ Untact ’ tourism in South Korea during the first wave of the pandemic (March 2020). Current Issues in Tourism, 1–19. doi: 10.1080/13683500.2020.1798895. Bakar, N. A. ve Rosbi, S. (2020). Effect of Coronavirus disease ( COVID-19 ) to tourism industry, International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science, Vol-7,Issue-4,April 2020
  • Balaguer, J. ve Jorda M.C. (2002). Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case. Applied Economics, 34:877-884.
  • Baldwin, R. ve Weder, B. (2020). Economics in the time of COVID-19. CEPR Press, London, https://cepr.org/sites/default/files/ news/COVID-19.pdf. (Erişim Tarihi: 05.12.2021).
  • Bavel, J.J., Van, Baicker, K., Boggio, P.S. ve Capraro, V. (2020). Using social and behavioral science to support COVID-19 pandemic response. Nature Human Behaviour, doi: 10.1038/s41562-020-0884-z.
  • Bleichrodt, H. ve Pinto, J.L. (2002). Loss aversion and scale compatibility in two-attribute trade-offs. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 46: 315-337.
  • Becchetti, L., Corrado, L. ve Conzo, P. (2017). Sociability, Altruism and Well-Being. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 41(2): 441–486. doi: 10.1093/cje/bew033.
  • Bikhchandani, S. ve Sharma, S. (2001). Herd Behavior in Financial Markets. IMF Staff Papers. 47(3): 279–310.
  • Bonaccorsi G, et al.. (2020). Economic and social consequences of human mobility restrictions under COVID-19. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(27) doi: 10.1073/pnas.2007658117.
  • British Broadcasting Corporation News (2020, March 22. 'Stay at home' - Doctors and nurses appeal to UK, https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-northernireland-51999437/stay-at-home-doctors-and-nurses-appeal-to-uk (Erişim Tarihi: 15.12.2021).
  • Castillo-chavez C., Bichara D. ve Morin BR. (2016). Perspectives on the role of mobility, behavior, and time scales in the spread of diseases. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. Dec 20; 113(51): 14582–14588. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1604994113.
  • Chang, E.C., Cheng, J.W. & Khorana, A. (2000). An Examination of Herd Behavior in Equity Markets: An International Perspective. Journal of Banking & Finance, 24(10): 1651-1679.
  • Chiang, T.C. ve Zheng, D. (2010). An Empirical Analysis of Herd Behavior in Global Stock Markets. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34(8): 1911–1921. doi: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.12.014.
  • Chowdhury S.M. (2020). Conflict in the Time of (Post-) Corona: Some Assessments from Behavioral Economics. Peace Econ. Peace Sci. Pub. Pol., 26(3). Congressional Research Service, (2021). Global Economic Effects of COVID-19: R46270. https://crsreports.congress.gov
  • Corpuz, J. C.G. (2021), Adapting to the culture of ‘new normal’: an emerging response to COVID-19, Journal of Public Health, Volume 43, Issue 2, June Pages e344–e345, https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdab057
  • Cornand, C. & Heinemann, F. (2014). ‘Measuring Agents’ Overreaction to Public Information in Games with Strategic Complementarities, Experimental Economics, 17, 61-77.
  • Currie G.M.A. (2020). Lens on the Post-COVID-19 New Normal for imaging departments. Journal of Medical Imaging and Radiation Sciences, 51(3): 361–363.
  • Daube M. ve Ulph D. (2016). Moral behaviour, altruism and environmental policy. Environmental and Resource Economics, 505–522. doi: 10.1007/s10640-014-9836-2.
  • Devenow, A. ve Welch, I. (1996). Rational herding in financial economics. European Economic Review, 40(3): 603-615
  • Dhall, R. ve Singh, B. (2020). The Covid-19 pandemic and herding behaviour: Evidence from India’s Stock Market’ Millennial Asia, 1–25. doi: 10.1177/0976399620964635.
  • Dovidio, J. (1984). Helping behavior and altruism: an empirical and conceptual overview, Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, DOI:10.1016/S0065-2601(08)60123-9
  • Economou, F., Kostakis, A. ve Philippas, N. (2011). Cross-country Effects in Herding Behaviour: Evidence from Four South European Markets. Journal of International Financial Markets, 21(3): 443–460. doi: 10.1016/j.intfin.2011.01.005.
  • Espinosa-Méndez, C. ve Arias, J. (2020a). Covid-19 effect on herding behaviour in European capital markets, Finance Research Letters, doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101787.
  • Espinosa-Méndez, C. ve Arias, J. (2020b). Herding behaviour in Asutralian stock market: Evidence on Covid-19 effect, Applied Economics Letters, 1–4. doi: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1854659.
  • Falco P. ve Zaccagni S. (2020). Promoting social distancing in a pandemic: Beyond the good intentions. Covid Economics, https://osf.io/a2nys/ (Erişim Tarihi: 15.12.2021).
  • Flightradar24. (2020). Flight tracking statistics. https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics (Erişim Tarihi: 20.12.2021).
  • Galai D. ve Sade O. (2003). The ‘ostrich effect’ and the relationship between the liquidity and the yields of financial assets. SSRN working paper. Garnett, P. Doherty, B. ve Heron, T. 2020. Vulnerability of the United Kingdom’s food supply chains exposed by Covid-19, NatuRe Food, Vol:1, 315–318
  • Gössling S, Scott D. ve Hall CM. (2020). Pandemics, tourism and global change: A rapid assessment of COVID-19. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, doi: 10.1080/09669582.2020.1758708.
  • Graham J. R. (1999). Herding among investment newsletters: Theory and evidence. Journal of Finance, 54(1): 237-268.
  • Grinblatt BM, Titman S. ve Wermers R. (1995). Momentum investment strategies, portfolio performance, and herding: A study of mutual fund behavior. The American Economic Review, 85(5): 1088–1105.
  • Gujrati P.R. ve Tias D. (2020). Covid-19: Impact on Global Economics. Amity Journal of Computational Sciences AJCS. 4(1): 24-29
  • Hameleers, M. (2020). Prospect theory in times of a pandemic: The effects of gain versus loss framing on policy preferences and emotional responses during the 2020 Coronavirus Outbreak. SocArXiv. https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/7pykj/ (Erişim Tarihi: 05.02.2022).
  • Henrich J., vd. (2005). Economics Man in Cross-Cultural Perspective: Behavioral Experiments In 15 Small-Scale Societies. Behavioral and Brian Science, 28(6): 795-815.
  • Hwang S. ve Salmon M. (2004). Market stress and herding. Journal of Empirical Finance 11: 585–616. doi: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2004.04.003.
  • Jedwab, R., Khan, A. M., Damania R., Russ, J. ve Zaveri, E. D. (2020). Pandemics, poverty, and social cohesion: lessons from the past and possible scenarios for COVID-19. IIEP-WP-2020-13
  • Kahneman, D. ve Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47: 263-291.
  • Kahneman, D. (2017). Hızlı ve Yavaş Düşünme. Istanbul: Varlık.
  • Karlsson N, Loewenstein G. ve Seppi D. (2005). The ‘ Ostrich Effect ’: Selective attention to information about investments. Behavioral & Experimental Economics https://weatherhead.case.edu/departments/banking-and-finance/documents/seppipaper.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 05.11.2021).
  • Khanthavit, A. (2021). Herding behavior model in investment decision on emerging markets: Experimental in Indonesia’, Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, Vol. 8, No. 2, 1-13. doi:10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no7.027
  • Kıyılar M. ve Akkaya M. (2016). Davranışsal Finans, Istanbul: Literatür.
  • Kurzban R., Burton-chellew MN. ve West SA., (2015). The evolution of altruism in humans. doi: 10.1146/annurev-psych-010814-015355.
  • Larsen S., Brun W., Torvald O. ve Selstad L., (2007). Subjective food-risk judgments in tourists. Tourism Management, 28(6): 1555–1559.
  • Lepp A. ve Gibson, H. (2003). Tourist roles, perceived risk and international tourism. Annals of Tourism, 30, 606–624.
  • Lunn P.D., Timmons S., Barjaková M., Belton C.A., Julienne H. ve Lavin C. (2020). Motivating social distancing during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An online experiment. ESRI Working Paper, 658
  • Maccari, V. (2020). Cognitive biases in the context of mass media and fake news: an analysis of the case of COVID-19 and its effects on echo chambers. Libera University: Department of Political Science Major Thesis. Mazareanu, E. (2021) Coronavirus: impact on the aviation industry worldwide - statistics & facts, https://www.statista.com/topics/6178/coronavirus-impact-on-the-aviation-industry worldwide/#dossierKeyfigures
  • Moscovici S., (1972). Society and theory in social psychology. In: Social Psychology: A Critical Assessment. London: Academic Press.
  • Morley CL. (1996). A comparison of three methods for estimating tourism demand models. Tourism Economics, 2: 223–234
  • New Zealand Police, (2020, March 25), First time in History. We can save the human race by lying in front of the T.V. and doing nothing. Let’s not screw this up. https://twitter.com/nzpolice/status/1242644889751285760?s=20 (Erişim Tarihi: 05.12.2021).
  • Nicola, M, et al. (2020. The socio-economic implications of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19): A review. International Journal of Surgery, 78(March): 185–193. doi: 10.1016/j.ijsu.2020.04.018.
  • Oster E., Shoulson I. ve Dorsey E.R. (2013). Optimal expectations and limited medical testing: Evidence from Huntington Disease. American Economic Review, 103, 804–830.
  • Parady, G., Taniguchi, A. ve Takami, K. (2020). transportation research interdisciplinary perspectives travel behavior changes during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan: analyzing the effects of risk perception and social influence on going-out self-restriction. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives. doi: 10.1016/j.trip.2020.100181.
  • Provenzano D. (2020). The Migration–Tourism Nexus in the EU28. Tourism Economics, 26(8): 1374–1393.
  • Pulighe, G. ve Lupia, F. (2020). Food First: Covid-19 outbreak and cities lockdown a booster for a wider vision on urban agriculture, Sustainability, 12(12), 5012; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12125012
  • Qiu, R.T.R., Park, J., Li. S. ve Song H. (2020). Annals of tourism research social costs of tourism during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Annals of Tourism Research, 84: 1-14. doi: 10.1016/j.annals.2020.102994.
  • Raafat R.M., Chater N. & Frith C. (2009). Herding in humans. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 13(10): 420–428. doi: 10.1016/j.tics.2009.08.002.
  • Rahayu, S. (2021). Herding behavior model in investment decision on emerging markets: Experimental in Indonesia’, Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(1): 53-59. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2021.vol8.no1.053
  • Riccetti, L., Russo, A. ve Gallegati, M. (2016). Financialisation and crisis in an agent based macroeconomic model. Economic Modelling, 52: 162–172. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.11.028.
  • Rothman A., Bartels R., Wlaschin J. ve Salovey R. (2006). The strategie use of gain- and loss-framed messages to promote healthy behavior: How theory can inform practice. Journal of Communication, 56: 202-220.
  • Sanders, M., Stockdale, E., Hume, S. ve John, P. (2020). Loss aversion fails to replicate in the coronavirus pandemic: evidence from an online experiment., Economics Letters, 109433, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109433.
  • Seleiman, M. F., Selim, S., Alhammad, B. A., Alharbi, B. M. ve Juliatti, F. C. (2020). Will novel coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic impact agriculture, food security and animal sectors?. Bioscience Journal, 36(4), 1315-1326. https://doi.org/10.14393/BJ-v36n4a2020-54560
  • Shreyash, T. ve Bhattacharyya, S. S. (2021). Coronavirus pandemic and economic lockdown; study of strategic initiatives and tactical responses of firms, International Journal of Organizational Analysis, Vol. 29 No. 5, 2021 1240-1268
  • Scharfstein, D.S. ve Stein, J. (1990). Herd behavior and investment. The American Economic Review, 80(3): 465–479.
  • Schwartz, S.H. (1977). Normative influence on altruism, L. Berkowitz (Ed.), Advances in experimental social psychology, Vol. 10, Academic Press, New York (1977), 221-279
  • Sicherman, N., Loewenstein, G., Seppi, D. J. ve Utkus, S. P. (2016). Financial attention. The Review of Financial Studies, 29(4): 863–897, https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhv073
  • Sirakaya, E. ve Woodside, A.G. (2005). Building and testing theories of decision making by travelers. Tourism Management, 26 (6): 815–32.
  • Sonmez, S. ve Graefe, A., (1998a). Influence of terrorism risk on foreign tourism decisions. Annals of Tourism Research, 25(1), 112–144.
  • Sonmez, S. ve Graefe, A., (1998b). Determining future travel behavior from past travel experience and perceptions of risk and safety. Journal of Travel Research, 37(2), 171–177.
  • Stalmeier P. ve Bezembinder T. (1999). The discrepancy between risky and riskless utilities: A matter of framing? Medical Decision Making 19(4) 435-447
  • Statista, 2021. https://www.statista.com/statistics/564717/airline-industry-passenger-traffic-globally/ (Erişim Tarihi: 05.01.2022)
  • Soofi M., Najafi F. ve Karami, B. (2020). Using Insights from Behavioral Economics to mitigate the spread of COVID ‑ 19. Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, 18(3): 345–350. doi: 10.1007/s40258-020-00595-4.
  • Thaler, R. H ve Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth and happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
  • Thornton R.L., (2008). The demand for, and impact of, learning HIV status. American Economic Review, 98(5): 1829–63.
  • Tsuchiya, Y. (2020). Crises, market shocks, and herding behavior in stock price forecasts, Empirical Economics, 10.1007/s00181-020-01894-4
  • Udmale, P., Pal, I., Szabo, S., Pramanik, M. ve Large, A. (2020). Global food security in the context of Covid-19: A scenario-based exploratory analysis, Progress in Disaster Science, Volume 7, 100-120.
  • Ulucak R, Yücel A.G. ve İlkay SÇ. (2020). Dynamics of tourism demand in Turkey: Panel Data Analysis Using Gravity Model. Tourism Economics, 26(8): 1394–1414
  • Um, S., Chon, K. ve Ro, Y. (2006). Antecedents of revisit intention. Annals of Tourism Research, 33(4), 1141–1158.
  • UNESCO Press Release, “1.37 billion students now home as COVID-19 school closures expand, ministers scale up multimedia approaches to ensure learning continuity”, https://en.unesco.org/covid19/educationresponse (Erişim Tarihi: 05.12.2021)
  • Utych S.M. ve Fowler L. (2020). Age-based messaging strategies for communication about COVID-19. Journal of Behavioral Public Administration, 3(1).
  • Verhage B. J., 1990. Perceived risk: A cross-cultural phenomenon?. Int. J. Res. Mark. 7:297–303.
  • Yang H.-Y. ve Chen K.-H., (2009). A general equilibrium analysis of the economic impact of a tourism crisis: a case study of the SARS epidemic in Taiwan. J. Policy Res. Tour. Leis. Events, 1(1):37–60
  • Watanabe T. ve Yabu T. (2020). Japan’s voluntary lockdown. Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers, 46: 1-31.
  • Wang, H. H. ve Na, H. A. O. (2020). Consumer food stockpiling behavior and willingness to pay for food reserves in COVID-19. Food Security, 12: 739–747.
  • Welch, I. (2000). Herding among security analysts, Journal of Financial Economics, 58: 369-396
  • Wilson, D. S. (2005). Does altruism exist? Culture, genes, and the welfare of others. New Haven: Yale University Press.
  • World Travel and Tourism Council (2020). Economic impact. https://wttc.org/Research/Economic-Impact (Erişim Tarihi: 05.12.2021).
  • Zaremba, A. R. Kizys, D.Y. Aharon and Demir E. (2020), Infected markets: novel coronavirus, government interventions, and stock return volatility around the globe, Finance Res. Lett. p. 101597
  • Zhang, D. M. Hu and Q. Ji et al., (2020). Financial markets under the global pandemic of Covid-19, Finance Res. Lett. (2020), p. 101528
  • Zhu H. ve Deng F. (2020). How to influence rural tourism intention by risk knowledge during COVID-19 containment in China: Mediating role of risk perception and attitude. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 17 (10): 1–23.