Kopula Yöntemi ile Osmaniye Bölgesinin İki Değişkenli Kuraklık Frekans Analizi

İklim değişikliğinin dünyanın birçok bölgesinde ekstrem doğa olaylarını tetiklediği gerçeği, birçok bilim insanı tarafındanciddi bir vaka olarak kabul edilmektedir. Çok değişkenli frekans dağılımları, hidrolojik tasarım ve risk yönetimi için giderekdaha fazla önem kazanmaktadır. Geleneksel çok değişkenli dağılımlar, tüm bileşen marjinallerinin aynı dağılım ailesindenolması gerektiği için ciddi şekilde sınırlamalara sahiptir. Kopula yöntemi, bu sınırlamanın üstesinden gelen çok değişkenlidağılımların türetilmesi için yeni ortaya çıkan bir yaklaşımdır. Bu çalışmada, Osmaniye ilinin yağış istasyonu uzun dönemveriler ile kuraklık analizi kopula fonksiyonu kullanılarak hesaplanmıştır. İlk olarak, kuraklık parametreleri olan kuraklıksüresi ve şiddeti SPI metodu kullanılarak elde edilmiştir. Gözlemlenen kuraklık süresi için Lognormal, kuraklık şiddeti içinise Weibull en uygun marjinal dağılım olarak bulunmuştur. Her bir kuraklık parametresi için tek değişkenli dağılımfonksiyonu elde edildikten sonra, Gumbel kopulası belirlenen 10 kopula fonksiyonu arasında Akaike Bilgi Kriteri (AIC),Bayes Bilgi Kriteri (BIC), Maksimum olabilirlik (MLE) yöntemleri ve kuyruk bağımlılığı da dikkate alınarak seçilmiştir.En son olarak Osmaniye ili kuraklık olaylarının süre ve şiddet parametrelerinin ortak dönüş periyotları hesaplanmıştır. Buanaliz sonucunda, karar vericilere Osmaniye ilinin gelecekteki kuraklıklara daha duyarlı olması konusunda bilgi verebilir.Bu bilgiler ışığında, muhtemel yapılması düşünülen su temini sistemi, hidrolik tasarım ve su yönetimi gibi konularda yararlıbilgiler sağlamaktadır.

Bivariate Drought Frequency Analysis based on Copula Theory for Osmaniye Region

Multivariate frequency distributions are becoming increasingly important for hydrological design and risk management. Traditional multivariate distributions have serious limitations as all component margins should be from the same distribution family. The Copula function is a newly approach to deriving multivariate distributions that overcome this limitation. In this study, drought analysis was calculated using the copula function for Osmaniye province with long-term precipitation data. Firstly, drought parameters including drought duration and severity were obtained by using SPI method. Lognormal and Weibull was observed to be the most suitable marginal distribution for drought duration and drought severity, respectively. After obtaining the univariate distribution function for each drought parameter, the Gumbel copula was selected among the 10 copula functions considering Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayes Information Criterion (BIC), Maximum likelihood (MLE) methods and tail dependency. Finally, the drought return period for Osmaniye province has been calculated. It provides useful information on topics such as the possible water supply system, hydraulic design and water management.

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