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TÜRKİYE’DE İŞSİZLİĞİ BELİRLEYEN FAKTÖRLERİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZİ

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de işsizliğin belirleyicileri, Johansen eş- bütünleşme yöntemi yardımıyla, 2000:Q1-2011:Q1 dönemi verileri kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre; değişkenler arasında eş-bütünleşme olduğu belirlenmiştir. Reel kesim güven endeksindeki artışlar beklenildiği yönde işsizliği azaltırken; özel sektor toplu iş sözleşme sayısındaki artışların işsizliği artırıcı yönde etki ettiği tespit edilmiştir. Hata düzeltme modelinde, hata düzeltme teriminin (ECt-1) katsayısı negatif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı çıkmıştır. Buna göre, uzun dönem denge değerinden sapmaların her dönem yaklaşık % 23’ü ortadan kalkmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İşsizliğin Belirleyicileri, Johansen Eş-bütünleşme Analizi, Türkiye

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS DETERMINE UNEMPLOYMENT IN TURKEY

In this study, determinants of unemployment for Turkey has been investigated with the help of Johansen Co-integration Method for the period 2000:Q1-2011Q1. According to findings a co-integration relation has been founded between variables; increases in confidence index of real sector decrease unemployment rate as expected but increases in the number of collective bargaining agreements for private sector have an increasing impact on unemployment. And according to Error Correction Model’s result; the error correction term coefficient (ECt-1) is negative and statistically significant as expected. Eventually approximately 23% deviations from the long-run equilibrium value eliminate in each period.

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