Balassa-Samuelson Hipotezinin Yüksek Orta Gelirli Ülkelerde Geçerliliğinin Test Edilmesi

Balassa-Samuelson hipotezine göre, bir ülkenin ticarete konu olan mallarının veriminde ticarete konu olmayan mallarına göre bir artış olursa ve bu artış diğer ülkelere kıyasla daha yüksek bir seviyede gerçekleşirse, bu ülkenin ticarete konu olmayan mallarının fiyatı da diğer ülkelere göre daha yüksek olacaktır. Dolayısıyla ticarete konu olmayan malların ülkeler arasındaki nispi fiyatı artacaktır. Nispi fiyatlardaki bu artış reel döviz kurunu da aynı oranda artıracaktır. Yani söz konusu ülkenin parası değer kazanacaktır. Bu çalışmada Balassa-Samuelson hipotezinden yola çıkarak reel döviz kuru ve verimlilik arasındaki ilişki yüksek orta gelir düzeyine sahip 10 ülke için 1990-2015 dönemine ait verilerden yararlanarak tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda Panel ARDL tahmincisi kullanılarak uzun dönem ve kısa dönem ilişkiyi açıklayan katsayılara ulaşılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre reel döviz kuru değerlenmesi ile verimlilik arasında uzun dönemde pozitif yönlü bir ilişki olduğunu belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen bu sonuçlar varyans ayrıştırma ve etki-tepki fonksiyonları ile de desteklenmektedir. Bu sonuçlar neticesinde yüksek orta gelir düzeyine sahip 10 ülke için Balassa-Samuelson hipotezinin geçerli olduğu gözlemlenmiştir.

Testing the Validity of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in High Middle Countries

According to the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, if an increase in productivity of the traded goods in a country is higher than the non-traded goods and the increase occurs at a higher level than the other countries, the price of non-traded goods in this country will be higher than that in the other countries. Therefore, the relative price of non-traded goods will increase between these countries. This increase in relative prices will also increase the real exchange rate. In the other words, currency of the country in question will appreciate. This paper uses the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis and aims to determine the nexus between real exchange rate and productivity, using the data from 1990-2015 for 10 countries with high middle income. In that line, panel ARDL estimator has been used to obtain coefficients describing the long-term and short-term relation. The findings indicate that there is indeed a positive nexus between the real exchange rate appreciation and the productivity, in the long term. These results are also supported by variance decomposition and impulse-response functions. The results show that the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis is valid for these 10 countries with high middle-income level.

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