TÜRKİYE'DE YENİLENEBİLİR VE YENİLENEMEYEN ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ, EKONOMİK BÜYÜME VE KARBONDİOKSİT SALINIMI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: BİR SVAR (YAPISAL VAR) ANALİZİ

Bu çalışmada yenilenebilir ve yenilenemeyen enerji tüketimi, ekonomik büyüme ve karbondioksit salınımı arasındaki ilişki yapısal VAR (SVAR) analizi ile araştırılmıştır. Türkiye için 1970-2014 dönemlerini kapsayan çalışmada yıllık zaman serileri kullanılarak iki farklı yapısal VAR (SVAR) modeli kurulmuştur. Öncelikle tüm değişkenler birim kök testleriyle sınanmış ve birinci farklarında durağan hale gelmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını analiz edebilmek için Johansen-Juselius ve Phillips-Ouliaris eşbütünleşme testleri kullanılmıştır. Analizlerden elde edilen sonuçlar her iki modelde değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olduğunu göstermiştir. İki farklı yapısal VAR (SVAR) analizi sonuçları yenilenebilir enerji tüketimindeki şokların karbondioksit salınımını ve kişi başına reel GSYİH’yı azalttığını, buna karşılık yenilenemeyen enerji tüketimindeki şokların hem kişi başına GSYİH’yı hem de karbondioksit salınımını yükselttiğini ortaya koymuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketimi, Yenilenemeyen Enerji Tüketimi, Ekonomik Büyüme, Karbondioksit Salınımı, Yapısal VAR (SVAR)

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RENEWABLE AND NONRENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS IN TURKEY: A SVAR (STRUCTURAL VAR) ANALYSIS

In this paper, the relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions was investigated by structural VAR (SVAR) analysis. Two different structural VAR (SVAR) model using annual time series covering the 1970-2014 period was established for Turkey. Firstly, all the variables were tested by the unit root tests and became stationary in their first differences. The Johansen-Juselius and Phillips-Ouliaris cointegration tests were used to analyze the presence of cointegration relationship between the variables. The results obtained from analyses indicated that there were cointegration relationship between the variables in two models. Two different structural VAR (SVAR) analyzes results revealed that shocks in renewable energy consumption reduced carbon dioxide emissions and per capita real GDP while shocks of non-renewable energy consumption increased both per capita real GDP and carbon dioxide emissions.

Keywords:

Renewable Energy Consumption Non-Renewable Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Cointegration, Structural VAR,

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