FİNANSAL SEKTÖR GELİŞİMİ, TİCARİ AÇIKLIK VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: YÜKSELEN PİYASA VE GELİŞMEKTE OLAN EKONOMİLER PANEL-VAR ÖRNEĞİ

Bu çalışmada, yükselen piyasa ve gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde finansal sektör gelişimi, ticari açıklık ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi incelenmiştir. Abrigo ve Love (2015)’in Panel Vektör Otoregresif yaklaşımı 86 ülkeden oluşan bir örnekleme, 1998-2016 dönemi için uygulanmıştır. Çalışmaya dahil edilen ülkeler gelir seviyelerine göre düşük ve alt-orta gelir ile üst-orta ve yüksek gelirli olmak üzere iki gruba ayrılmıştır. Böylelikle gelir seviyesindeki farklılaşmanın değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerini nasıl etkilediği araştırılmıştır. Çalışmanın ampirik bulguları, düşük ve alt-orta gelir ülke grubunda ekonomik büyümeden ticari açıklığa ve ticari açıklıktan finansal sektör gelişimine doğru nedensellik ilişkileri olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, düşük ve alt-orta gelir ülke grubu için finansal sektör gelişimi ekonomik büyümenin önemli bir belirleyicisi olarak bulunmuştur. Sonuçlar, üst-orta ve yüksek ülke grubu için de ekonomik büyümeden ticari açıklığa ve ticari açıklıktan finansal sektör gelişimine doğru Granger-nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğuna dair kanıt sunmaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Finansal Sektör Gelişimi, Ticaret Açıklığı, Ekonomik Büyüme, PanelVAR

THE CAUSALITY AMONG FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT, TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: PANEL-VAR EVIDENCE FROM EMERGING MARKET AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

This study examines the causality among financial sector development, trade openness and economic growth in emerging market and developing economies. The Panel Vector Autoregressive approach in Abrigo and Love (2015) is applied 86 countries over the period of 1998-2016. The country sample is divided into two groups as low and lower-middle income countries, and upper-middle and high income countries. By doing so, it is investigated how the differentiation in income level affects the causality among variables. The findings suggest that there is causality from economic growth to trade openness and from trade openness to financial sector development in low and lower-middle income countries. Moreover, financial sector development is found as a key determinant of economic growth in this country group. The results also show that there is Granger causality running from economic growth to trade openness and from trade openness to financial sector development in upper-middle and high income countries

Keywords:

Financial Sector Development, Trade Openness, Economic Growth, Panel-VAR,

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