ABD ENERJİ ve İKLİM POLİTİKALARININ KÖMÜRÜN GELECEĞİNE ETKİSİ: BİRİNCİ YILINDA TRUMP DÖNEMİNİN ANALİZİ

Trump Yönetiminin enerji ve iklim politikaları, ABD’de düşüşe geçmiş olan kömür sektörünü yeniden canlandırmaya yetecek midir? Bu makalenin amacı enerji ve iklim tartışmalarının geleceği açısından oldukça hayati olan bu soruyu cevaplamaktır. Tarihsel bir perspektifle, Obama ve Trump dönemleri karşılaştırmalı olarak küresel enerji gelişmeleri ışığında sosyo-ekonomik ve siyasal bağlamda neden-sonuç ilişkileriyle birlikte kaynaklar taranarak analitik bir bakış açısıyla incelenmekte ve önümüzdeki yıllara dair sürdürülebilirlik açısından öngörülerde bulunulmaktadır. Doğalgazın ve yenilenebilir enerjilerin ABD’deki yükselişine rağmen kömür, enerji güvenliğine olan katkısı, elektrik arzındaki kritik rolü ile temel enerji kaynağı olarak önemli konumunu sürdürüyor. Son bir yılda siyasi desteğin de yardımıyla kömür sektöründe bir canlanma yaşanmıştır. Ancak bu gelişme zamanımızın enerji dönüşümünün tarihsel yönünü değiştirmeye yetmeyecektir. Trump’ın enerji politikalarının da desteğiyle kömürde yaşanan canlanma bir süre daha devam edebilir. Orta-uzun vadede ise yenilenebilirlerin yükselişi karşısında (ve ABD örneğinde kaya gazının rekabetiyle) kömürün başat konumunu koruması hatta düşüşünü durdurmasının çok zor olacağı değerlendirilmektedir. Enerjinin geleceğini belirlemede siyaset tek başına yetersiz kalacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

ABD İklim ve Enerji Politikaları, Kömür, Enerji Dönüşümü

IMPACT OF US ENERGY AND CLIMATE POLICY ON THE FUTURE OF COAL: ANALYSIS OF TRUMP ERA IN ITS FIRST YEAR

A couple of years before President Trump took over the Office, coal had been in decline as a domestic industry and fuel in the US. Thus, whether "Trump’s favorable energy and climate policies help revive coal again or these will be enough to sustain the coal" will rise as an important question not only in USA but also globally. The aim of this article is to answer this question which has a profound importance and relevance to the future of global energy and climate debate in this study with this background, Obama-era policies on the one hand and the last year’s implementations (Trump era), related to coal industry on the other hand, has been comparatively reviewed and analyzed using different tools and sources. In anticipating future developments in a historical perspective, the role and direction of current energy transformation is taken into consideration within the global economic and political context. As, a matter of fact, coal as primary energy source and the main fuel in power generation is still important especially in providing energy security and baseload reliable power. Additionally, There has indeed been (with the additional support of Trumpian policies) same reversal of Obama era regulations and a kind of revival in coal industry in the last year. Therefore, it maybe that (which is already the case) Trump’s energy policies provide a relief to coal in the transition period as a bridge fuel. However, these developments will not be able to change course of energy transformation of our times, which is towards a system based on renewables energies in the long run. It is certainly going to be the case that eventually against rise of renewables and the competitive abundant shale gas, it will be very difficult for coal to sustain let alone revive. Thus, policy alone will not suffice to determine the future of energy, rather it is the economic and technological transformation that will matter

Keywords:

US Energy and Climate Policy, Coal, Energy Transformation,

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