Beşeri Sermaye Tahmini: Gizli Değişken Yaklaşımı

Öz Beşeri sermaye bir ülkenin iktisadi büyüme performansını açıklamada önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Literatürde beşeri sermayenin bireysel düzeyde sayısal ölçümüne yönelik farklı yaklaşımlar önerilmiş, çapraz ülke düzeyinde eğitim stoğuna dayalı farklı ölçümler ya da yine çapraz ülke düzeyinde beşeri sermayenin kısıtlı bileşenlerinin ortalamalarına dayalı yeni ölçümler geliştirilmiştir. Bu yaklaşımlar arasında gizli değişken yaklaşımı, beşeri sermayenin karmaşık, çok yönlü, doğrudan gözlenemeyen ve kesin olarak ölçülemeyen bir olgu olduğunu yani istatistiksel olarak beşeri sermayenin gizli bir değişken olduğunu önermektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, gizli değişken yaklaşımını benimseyerek Türkiye ekonomisi için 81 il kapsamında 2008-2013 dönemi panel verileri ile makroekonomik düzeyde bir beşeri sermaye endeksi oluşturmaktır. Bu doğrultuda çalışmada gizli değişken tahmin yöntemlerinden Doğrulayıcı Faktör Analizi ve Çoklu Gösterge-Çoklu Neden Modelleri kullanılmıştır. İller için kurulan model tahminleri eğitim değişkenlerinin beşeri sermayeyi belirlemede iyi birer gösterge olduklarını bir kez daha göstermiştir. Çoklu Gösterge-Çoklu Neden model tahminlerine göre en yüksek etkiye sahip eğitim değişkeni ortaöğretim okullaşma oranı iken; Doğrulayıcı Faktör Analizi model tahmin sonuçlarına göre en yüksek etkiye sahip eğitim değişkeni üniversite mezun oranı olmuştur İller bazında beşeri sermaye endeks değerleri incelendiğinde 2008 yılı için İstanbul, Ankara ve İzmir ilinin hem Doğrulayıcı Faktör Analizi hem de Çoklu Gösterge-Çoklu Neden modellerinde beklenildiği üzere beşeri sermaye endeks değerleri bakımından öncü oldukları, bu illeri Eskişehir, Bursa, Konya ve Adana illerinin takip ettiği tespit edilmiştir. En düşük beşeri sermaye endeksine sahip iller ise Iğdır, Hakkari, Şırnak, Kilis, Bayburt, Tunceli ve Ardahan olarak sıralanmaktadır. Çalışmada elde edilen 2008-2013 dönemi iller ortalaması beşeri sermaye endeks değerleri Birleşmiş Milletler Kalkınma Programı tarafından hesaplanan İnsani Gelişmişlik Endeksi ile karşılaştırıldığında, ilgili endeks değerlerinin aynı yönlü bir eğilime sahip oldukları saptanmıştır.

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