Türk Dış Politikasında Parti Rekabeti: Rakip Partilerin Politika Revizyonlarını Anlamak

Siyasi partiler politikalarını niçin değiştirirler? Parti rekabeti teorileri bu soruyu analiz ederken, partilerin seçmenlerine, rakiplerine, lobi gruplarına veya bir önceki seçim sonuçlarına nasıl cevap verdiklerine bakmaktadır. Türk dış politikasındaki (TDP) değişimin nedenlerini inceleyen çalışmalar bu tarz ulusal alt sistem düzeyinden faktörlerin etkisine kısmi olarak açıklama getirmektedir. Bu makale parti rekabetinin TDP üzerindeki görece etkisi ile ilgilenmektedir. Bu amaçla, Türkiye’deki ana akım siyasi partilerin birbirini takip eden seçim manifestoları analiz edilecek ve bu manifestolarda sunulan dış politika pozisyonları hem birbiriyle hem de dönemsel olarak karşılaştırılacaktır. Analiz, iktidar partisi olan Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi ile Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi ve Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi’nin 2002-2018 dönemindeki seçim öncesi parti programlarına dayanmaktadır. Makale bu partilerin parti programlarının yalnızca dış politikaya ayrılan kısımlarına odaklanmaktadır. Öncelikle partilerin genel TDP vizyonlarındaki dönüşümler incelenecek, daha sonra partilerin Türkiye’nin Batı, Orta Doğu ve diğer bölgeler ile ilişkileri üzerine geliştirdikleri politikalar ve yeni düzenlemeler analiz edilecektir. Makale ayrıca partilerin seçim manifestolarındaki dış politika önerilerinin rakip partilerin bir önceki seçim döneminde sundukları önerilerle benzeşme boyutunu da inceleyecektir. Makalenin bulgularının partilerin dış politika tercihlerini anlamaya yardımcı olması ve TDP’deki dönüşümün boyutu ve açıklayıcıları ile ilgili mevcut tartışmaya katkı sunması beklenmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Türk Dış Politikası, parti rekabeti, parti pozisyonları, Türkiye-AB ilişkileri, Türkiye-ABD İlişkileri, Ortadoğu

Party Competition Over Turkish Foreign Policy: Understanding Policy Revisions of the Rival Parties

Why do parties change policy positions? Theories of party competition analyze this question by looking at how parties respond to their voters, to their rivals, to the lobbying groups, or to the results of the past elections. The research on the motives of change in Turkish foreign policy (TFP) partially accounts for such factors from the domestic level. This article is interested in the relative impact of party competition over TFP. To this end, it analyses and compares foreign policy positions as presented in the successive election manifestos of the mainstream Turkish political parties. The analysis rests on all the pre-election party programs of the ruling Justice and Development Party, the Republican Peoples Party and the Nationalist Action Party in the period from 2002 to 2018. The article solely concentrates on sections of these parties’ election programs that are devoted to foreign policy. First, it examines transformations regarding parties’ general framings about TFP visions and then analyses party policies and adjustments regarding Turkey’s relations with the West, Middle East, and other regions. The article also examines the level of the resemblance of parties’ foreign policy proposals with their rivals’ proposals from the previous electoral period. The findings of this article are expected to help understand parties’ choices for particular foreign policy positions, as well as, contribute to the existing discussions on the magnitude and determinants of change in TFP.

Keywords:

Turkish Foreign Policy, party competition, party positions, manifestos, Turkey-EU relations, Turkey-US relations,

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