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KAMU BÜYÜKLÜĞÜ DIŞA AÇIKLIK İLİŞKİSİNİN ANALİZİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz Dışa açıklığın makroekonomik değişkenlere ve ekonomik büyümeye etkisi yıllardır tartışılmaktadır. Dışa açıklık yeni ekonomik faaliyetlere ve uzun dönemde üretimin sektörel bileşiminde değişikliğe neden olabilmektedir. Bunlar, üretim yapısında ve kamu harcamalarının toplam harcamalar içindeki payında bir değişiklik olabilir. Küreselleşme ve serbest ticaret, kamu harcamaları ve büyümesini etkilemekte fakat bu etkinin yönü tartışılmaktadır. Kamu büyüklüğü ve dışa açıklık arasındaki ilişkiye ilişkin literatürde üç temel hipotez vardır. Bu hipotezler telafi hipotezi, etkinlik hipotezi ve sanayisizleşme (deindustrialization) hipotezidir. Telafi hipotezine göre, kamu büyüklüğü ve dışa açıklık arasında pozitif bir ilişki, etkinlik hipotezine göre negatif bir ilişki vardır. Sanayisizleşme hipotezine göre ise kamu büyüklüğü ve dışa açıklık arasında nedensellik ilişkisi yoktur. Bu çalışmada, kamu büyüklüğü ve dışa açıklık ilişkisi, 1998:1-2016:4 dönemini kapsayan üç aylık verilerle Türkiye ekonomisi için tahmin edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler Engle-Granger Koentegrasyon ve Hata Düzeltme Modeli kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Ekonometrik analizler, Türkiye ekonomisinde, kamu büyüklüğü ile dışa açıklık arasında uzun dönemli ilişki ve kısa dönemde de çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Kamu Büyüklüğü, Dışa Açıklık, Engle-Granger Koentegrasyon, Hata Düzeltme Modeli

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