İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi Türkiye İçin Geçerli Mi?

Genellikle dış ticaretin ülkelerin iktisadi kalkınma süreçlerinde önemli bir role sahip olduğu düşünülmektedir. Örneğin, artan ihracat düzeyinin teknik bilgi düzeyinin yayılmasına yol açtığı varsayılmaktadır. Daha da ötesi, ithalatın da ihracat sektörü için gerekli olan ara ve sermaye mallarının teminini gerçekleştirerek ekonomik performansa katkıda bulunduğu kabul görmektedir. Bahsedilen bu fikirler sırasıyla “ihracata dayalı büyüme” ve “ithalata dayalı büyüme” hipotezleri şeklinde adlandırılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye için 2005(1)-2011(11) dönemi boyunca Johansen eşbütünleşme metodu kullanılarak ihracat, ithalat, sanayi üretim endeksi ve reel döviz kuru arasındaki ilişkiler irdelenmektedir. Sonuçlar, ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezinin geçerliliği yönünde kanıtlar sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İhracata dayalı büyüme, ithalata dayalı büyüme, ticari serbestleşme, Johansen eşbütünleşme metodu.

İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi Türkiye İçin Geçerli Mi?

It is generally thought that export has a crucial role in the economic development processes of countries. For instance, it is assumed that increasing level of export contributes to diffusion of technical knowledge. Furthermore, import is accepted to contribute to economic performance providing intermediate and capital goods necessary for export sectors. These ideas are called “export-led growth hypothesis” and “import-led growth hypothesis”, respectively. In this study, it is aimed to explore the relationships between industrial production index, export, import, and real exchange rate using Johansen co-integration method for Turkey over the period 2005(1)2011(11). The results are in support of export-led growth hypothesis.

Keywords:

export-led growth, import-led growth, trade liberalization, Johansen cointegration method.,

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