19587

OECD Ülkelerinde Göç, İşsizlik ve Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Panel ARDL Tekniği ile İncelenmesi

Ekonomik büyümeye tipik olarak göç de eşlik etmektedir. Büyüme sürecinde her iki faktör de büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışma, hedef ülkenin göç ve ekonomik koşulları arasındaki etkileşimini ampirik olarak incelemektedir. Bu doğrultuda çalışma, 1990-2016 dönemi 19 OECD ülkesi için panel ARDL tekniği ile incelenmiştir. Kısa ve uzun dönem olmak üzere iki sonuç elde edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, göç akışlarının uzun dönemde ev sahibi ülkelerin ekonomik büyümesine katkısının olduğunu göstermiştir. Kısa dönem sonuçları ise, göç akışlarının büyümeyi olumsuz etkilediğini göstermiştir. Diğer yandan beklenildiği üzere uzun dönemde, istihdamdaki artışlar kişi başı GSYH’yi artırırken işsizlik oranlarındaki her bir artış kişi başı GSYH’yi azaltmaktadır. Ayrıca göçün, ev sahibi ülkelerin ekonomik koşullarından etkilendiğini de söylemek mümkündür. Anahtar Kelimeler: Uluslararası Göç, Büyüme, İşsizlik, Panel ARDL, OECDJEL Sınıflandırması: F22, O47, B22, C33, O50

Anahtar Kelimeler:

International Migration, Growth, Unemployment, Panel ARDL

Investigation of The Relationship Between Migration, Unemployment and Growth in the OECD Countries with Panel ARDL Technique

Economic growth is typically accompanied by migration. Both factors are great important in the growth process. This study empirically examines the interaction between migration and economic conditions of the target country. In the period of 1990-2016, the panel data was analyzed by panel ARDL technique by using he annual data set in 19 OECD countries. Short and long term results were obtained. The long-term results show that migration flows contribute to the economic growth of host countries. Short-term results showed that migration flows had a negative impact on growth. On the other hand, as expected, in the long run, while the increases in employ ment increase the GDP per capita, each increase in unemployment rate decreases GDP per capita. It is also possible to say that the migration is affected by the economic conditions of the host countries.Key Words: International Migration, Growth, Unemployment, Panel ARDL, OECDJEL Classification: F22, O47, B22, C33, O50

PDF

___

Akanbi, O. A. (2017). Impact of migration on economic growth and human development. International Journal of Social Economics.
Angrist JD, Kugler AD (2003), ‘Protective or Counter-productive? Labour Market Institutions and the Effect of Immigration on EU Natives’. Economic Journal, 113: 302-331.
Bencivenga VR, Smith BD (1997), ‘Unemployment, Migration, and Growth’. Journal of Political Economy, 105-3: 582-608.
Bashier A, Siam AJ (2014), ‘Immigration and Economic Growth in Jordan: FMOLS Approach’. International Journal of Humanities Social Sciences and Education (IJHSSE), 1(9): 85-92.
Borjas G, (2019), ‘Immigration and Economic Growth’. National Bureau Of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138.
Boubtane, E., Coulibaly, D., & Rault, C. (2013a). ‘Immigration, unemployment and GDP in the host country: Bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis on OECD countries’. Economic Modelling, 33, 261-269.
Boubtane E, Coulibaly D, Rault C (2013b), ‘Immigration, growth and unemployment: Panel VAR evidence from OECD countries’. Documents de Travail du Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne.
Bove, V., & Elia, L. (2017). Migration, diversity, and economic growth. World Development, 89, 227-239.
Butler, M. (2017). Investigating the Effects of Migration on Economic Growth in Aging OECD Countries from 1975-2015.
Dolado J, Goria A, Ichino A (1994), ‘Immigration, Human Capital and Growth in the Host Country: Evidence from Pooled Country Data’. Journal of Population Economics, 7: 193–215.
Dustmann, C., Frattini, T., & Rosso, A. (2015). The effect of emigration from Poland on Polish wages. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 117(2), 522-564.
Esposito, P., Collignon, S., & Scicchitano, S. (2020). The effect of immigration on unemployment in Europe: Does the core-periphery dualism matter?. Economic Modelling, 84, 249-258.
GAV (2017), Göç Araştırmaları Vakfı, http://gocvakfi.org/oecd-2017-goc-raporu-yayinlandi/ (28.10.2018).
Gür N, (2017), ‘ Ülke Deneyimleri Işığında Uluslararası Göç Ekonomisi’. Siyaset, Ekonomi Ve Toplum Araştırmaları Vakfı (Seta), Aralık, 224.
Im KS, Pesaran MH, Shin Y (2003), ‘Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels’. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1): 53-74.
Islam A (2007), ‘Immigration and Unemployment Relationship: Evidence from Canada’, Australian Economic Papers, 46: 52–66.
Jean S, Jimenez M (2011), ‘The Unemployment Impact of Immigration in OECD Countries’. European Journal of Political Economy, 27: 241–256.
Marr W, Siklos P (1994), ‘The Link between Immigration and Unemployment in Canada’, Journal of Policy Modeling, 16: 1–26.
Mayda AM (2010), ‘International Migration: A Panel Data Analysis of the Determinants of Bilateral Flows’, Journal of Population Economics, 23: 1249–1274.
Mihi-Ramírez, A., Ojeda-González, S., Miranda-Martel, M. J., & Agoh, E. (2016). The contribution of migration to economics growth. Evidence from Spain. Open Economics, 1(1), 124-130.
OECD, (2017), ‘A portrait of family migration in OECD countries’. International Migration Outlook 2017.
Ortega F (2000), ‘Pareto Improving Immigration in an Economy with Equilibrium Unemployment’. Economic Journal, 110: 92–112.
Ortega F, Peri G (2012), ‘The Effect of Income and Immigration Policies on International Migration’. Migration Studies, 1(1), Oxford University Press.
Pedersen PJ, Pytlikova M, Smith N (2008), ‘Selection and network effects—Migration flows into OECD countries 1990–2000’. European Economic Review, 52(7): 1160-1186.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621-634.
Pope D, Withers G (1985), ‘Immigration and Unemployment’, Economic Record, 61: 554–563.
Pischke JS, Velling J (1997), ‘Employment Effects of Immigration to Germany: An Analysis Based on Local Labor Markets’. Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(4): 594-604.
Ojeda-Gonzalez, S., Mihi-Ramirez, A., Arteaga Ortiz, J., & Cuenca-Garcia, E. (2018). Spain trade in view of some migratory and economic considerations. Inžinerinė ekonomika.
Ruyssen I, Everaert G, Rayp G (2012), ‘Determinants and dynamics of migration to OECD countries in a three-dimensional panel framework’. Empirical Economics, 46(1):175-197.
Škuflić, L., & Vučković, V. (2018). The effect of emigration on unemployment rates: the case of EU emigrant countries. Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 31(1), 1826-1836.
Withers G, Pope, D. (1985), ‘Immigration And Unemployment’. Economic Record, 61(173):554-63.
World Migration Report 2018, https://www.iom.int/wmr/world-migration-report-2018.
https://refugeesmigrants.un.org/definitions (11.11.2018).
http://www.unesco.org/new/en/social-and-human-sciences/themes/international migration/glossary/migrant/ (11.11.2018).
https://www.nationalgeographic.org/activity/introduction-human-migration/ (12.11.2018).