AB-Akdeniz Ülkeleri Arasındaki Tarımsal Ticaretin Serbestleştirilmesinin Türk Tarım Sektörü Dış Ticaretine Etkileri: Bir Armington Modeli

Son yıllarda GATT’ın XXIV. Maddesi kapsamında tercihli ticaret anlaşmaları yaygınlaşmaktadır. Bu anlaşmalardan biri de Avrupa Birliği (AB) ile Türkiye’nin de dâhil olduğu 12 Akdeniz Ülkesi arasında 1995 yılında imzalanan Barselona Anlaşması’dır (EUROMED). Barselona Anlaşması kapsamında AB ve Akdeniz Partner Ülkeleri (APÜ) arasında ortaklık anlaşmaları yapılmaktadır. Ancak bu anlaşmalar, tarımsal ürün ticaretini henüz tam olarak kapsamamaktadır. AB ve APÜ arasında yapılmakta olan serbest ticaret anlaşmalarının tarım ürünlerini de kapsamasının önemli etkileri olacağı kaçınılmazdır. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı AB ile APÜ arasında tarım ürünlerinde serbest ticaret anlaşmasının Türkiye’nin tarımsal ürün ticareti üzerindeki potansiyel ticaret yaratıcı ve ticaret saptırıcı etkilerini Armington modeli kullanarak analiz etmektir. Armington modelinde, geleneksel ticaret modellerinin aksine ticarete konu olan malların heterojen olduğu varsayılmıştır. Çalışmada 4 haneli harmonize sisteme (HS-4) göre sınıflandırılmış 209 tarımsal ürünün dış ticaret verileri kullanılmıştır. Bölgesel etkileri analiz edebilmek için Türkiye’nin tüm dış ticareti 28 bölgeye ayrılmıştır. Tüm Akdeniz ülkeleri modele ayrı ayrı dâhil edilmiştir. Modelde ithalat için ticaret ortaklarının arz esnekliklerinin, ihracat için ise ticaret ortaklarının talep esnekliklerinin tam olduğu varsayılmıştır. Sonuçlara göre Türkiye’nin ihracatının % 4,1; ithalatının % 9,7 artması beklenmektedir.

Impacts of Agricultural Trade Liberalization between EU and Mediterranean Countries on Turkish Agricultural Trade: An Armington Model

Free trade agreements (FTAs) have become popular in recent years. One of these agreements is Barcelona Agreement (EUROMED), signed between European Union (EU) and 12 Mediterranean partner countries (MPC), including Turkey. Accordingly, association agreements have been signed between EU and MPC. However, these agreements have not completely included agricultural trade yet. The aim of this paper is to analyze the potential trade creation and trade diversion impacts of agricultural trade liberalization between the EU and MPCs on Turkey’s agricultural trade by using Armington trade model. Contrary to the traditional trade model, goods are not homogeneous in Armington Model. Trade data of 209 agricultural goods classified at 4 digit level harmonize system (HS-4) were used in the present analysis. The global trade of Turkey was disaggregated into 28 regions to distinguish the regional impacts. All Mediterranean partner countries, including Turkey, were explicitly included. The structure of the model assumes perfectly elastic export supplies for imports and perfectly elastic import demands for exports, and hence the model simulates the maximum possible changes in the imports and export for each goods. Results show that Turkey’s agricultural export will increase  4,1 %, while agricultural import will increase  9,7 %.

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Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi  Dergisi-Cover
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 3 Sayı
  • Başlangıç: 1999
  • Yayıncı: Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi