Kırılgan - Başarısız Devlet Olgusu ve Terörizm İlişkisi

Küreselleşen ve daha da kompleks bir yapıya dönüşen terörizm unsurunun muhtemel dinamiklerinin belirlenmesi terörizmle mücadelede başarı elde edilebilmesi ve sürdürülebilir bir barış ortamının tesis edilebilmesi noktasında oldukça önemlidir. Bu açıdan bakıldığında, terörün şiddet boyutunun hat safhada olduğu bölgelerde kırılgan-başarısız devlet statüsündeki ülkelerin çoğunlukta olması, terörün muhtemel dinamikleri arasında devlet başarısızlığı olgusunun olabileceğini ön plana çıkarmaktadır. Nitekim, 2007-2011 dönemi ve Küresel Terörizm Veritabanı’nda kayıtlı 156 ülkenin analiz edildiği Rassal Etkiler Panel Modeli'nin bulguları kırılgan - başarısız devlet olgusu ile teröre verilen zayiatlar gibi toplumsal ve psikolojik unsurların terörün şiddet boyutunun tırmanması noktasında itici faktör olduklarını göstermektedir. Başka bir ifadeyle, kırılgan-başarısız devlet olgusu ve terörizmin şiddet boyutu terörizm unsurlarının yayılması noktasında elverişli zemin oluşturmaktadır. Dolayısıyla, terörizmle mücadelede etkin sonuçlar alınabilmesi adına, devlet başarısızlığı olgusuyla iktisadi ve politik açıdan mücadele edilmesi; bu doğrultuda, özellikle komşu ülkelerle oluşturulacak bölgesel paktlar dahilinde proaktif güvenlik önlemlerinin devreye sokulması gerekmektedir. Bununla birlikte, ülkelerin demokratikleşme düzeyi ile terörün şiddet boyutu arasında istatistiksel açıdan anlamlı herhangi bir bulguya ulaşılamamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Terörizm, Küresel Terörizm Endeksi, Kırılgan Devlet Olgusu, Başarısız Devlet Olgusu

The Fragile - Failed State Phenomenon and Terrorism Relationship

The determining potential dynamics of terrorism which globalized and became more complex structure has a vital importance in order to establish sustainable peace and achieve success in the fight against terrorism. So, the number of fragile-failed states is higher in regions where there is higher violence of terrorism that rises the possibility of the fragile-failed states phenomenonas potential dynamic of terrorism. In the fact that the findings of the Random Effects Panel Model on which analyzed 156 countries registered in Global Terrorism Database over the 2007 - 2011 period indicate that terrorist events that the phenomenon of fragile - failed state and the number of casualties which caused by terrorism are driving factor on dramatic rises of violence of terror. In other words, fragile-failed state phenomenon and violence of terrorism cretae a favorable environment for spillover of terrorism. Therefore, struggling state failure phenomenon economically and politically; in this direction, taking proactive security measures within regional pacts establishing especially with neighboring countries are required.

Keywords:

Global Terrorism Index, Fragile State Phenomenon, Failed State Phenomenon,

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