TERÖRİZM KAYNAKLI TEHDİTLERDE İSTİHBARAT KURUMLARININ TEHDİT DEĞERLENDİRMESİ: GELENEKSEL YAKLAŞIM

İstihbarat kurumlarının ana görevlerinden en önemlisi tehdidin tanımlanması, analiz edilmesi ve değerlendirilmesidir. Singer tarafından tanımlanan tehdit değerlendirmesi modeli istihbarat literatürü ve istihbarat uygulaması içerisinde temel konsepttir. İki parametreli (niyet ve kapasite) bu model, hem devlet temelli hem de terörizm temelli tehditleri değerlendirmek için istihbarat kurumları tarafından kullanılan geleneksel yaklaşımdır. Tehditlerin doğası ve karakteristiğinde anlamlı ve önemli değişiklikler olmasına rağmen, tehditleri değerlendirmek için kullanılan bu geleneksel yöntem çok az değişikliğe uğramıştır. Bu makalenin temel argümanı, istihbarat kurumları tarafından kullanılan bu geleneksel yöntemin terörist örgütlerden kaynaklı tehditleri değerlendirmede çok basit kaldığıdır. Bu çalışma, istihbarat analizindeki geleneksel ve ana yaklaşımı analiz etmekte olup iki parametrenin de önemli olduğuna, fakat terörist örgütlerin tehdit değerlendirmesinde yetersiz kaldığına vurgu yapmaktadır. Terörizm tehdidinin değerlendirmesindeki analitik problemi göstermek için 9/11 terör saldırısı eleştirel bir şekilde incelenmiştir.

INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES’ THREAT ASSESMENT ON TERRORISM-BASED THREATS: TRADITIONAL APPROACH

The most important task of intelligence agencies is the identification, analysis and assessment of the threat. The model of threat assesment described by Singer is a foundational concept within intelligence literature and practice. This model with dual-parameter (intention and capability) is the traditional approach used by intelligence agencies to asses both state-based threats and terrorism-based threats. Despite meaningful and important changes in the nature and charecteristics of the threats, this conventional method to assesing threats has undergone little modification. The main argument of this article is that the conventional model used by intelligence agencies is too simple to asses threats from terrorist organizations. This study analyses a traditional and main approach to intelligence analysis and highlights that both parameters are significant but weaknesses in assesing terrorist organizations’ threat. 9/11 terror attack was critically examined to show the analytical problem of the terrorism threat assesment.

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