Petrol Fiyatları, GSYİH ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki Nedensellik: Azerbaycan ve Kazakistan Örneği

Bağımsızlıklarının ardından petrol endüstrisine büyük önem atfeden Azerbaycan ve Kazakistan, bu endüstriye yabancı yatırımları da çekmeyi başarmıştır. Ekonomi için kilit rol üstlenen bu endüstri, ekonomiyi özellikle petrol fiyatlarına karşı hassas hale getirmiştir. Bu bağlamda, mevcut çalışmada hem Azerbaycan hem de Kazakistan için petrol fiyatı, GSYİH ve döviz kuru değişkenlerine ait çeyreklik zaman serileri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri ayrı ayrı incelenmektedir. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi sonuçları, Azerbaycan için döviz kurundan petrol fiyatlarına, petrol fiyatlarından GSYİH’ya ve GSYİH’dan döviz kuruna işleyen tek yönlü nedenselliklere işaret ederken nedenselliklerin yönü Kazakistan için petrol fiyatlarından GSYİH’ya, döviz kurundan GSYİH’ya ve petrol fiyatlarından döviz kuruna şeklinde ortaya çıkmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Azerbaycan, Kazakistan, petrol fiyatları, GSYİH, döviz kuru, nedensellik

Causality Among Oil Prices, GDP and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan

Following their independence, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, which place great importance to oil industry, have also succeeded in attracting foreign investments to this industry. Over time, this industry, which has become a key to the economy, has made the economy vulnerable particularly to oil prices. In this regard, current paper investigates causal relationships between quarterly time series of oil prices, GDP and exchange rate for both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan separately. Toda-Yamamoto causality test results for Azerbaijan suggest that there are unidirectional causalities from exchange rate to oil prices, from oil prices to GDP and from GDP to exchange rate. As for Kazakhstan, causalities run from oil prices to GDP, exchange rate to GDP and oil prices to exchange rate.

Keywords:

Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Oil Prices, GDP, Exchange Rate, Causality,

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