Enflasyon’un Türkiye için Refah Maliyeti

Bu çalışma, 1970-2013 yılları arasındaki veri setini kullanarak enflasyonun Türkiye için refah maliyetini Bailey’dan 1956 yola çıkarak tahmin etmektedir. Bu çalışmada, iki ceşit para talebi fonksiyonu tahmin edilecektir. Bunlardan ilki Meltzer’in 1963 log-log para talebi fonksiyonu, diğeri ise Cagan’ ın 1956 yarı-logaritmik para talebi fonksiyonudur. Analiz sonuçları, enflasyonun log-log para talebi versiyonuna dayanan refah maliyeti tahmininin Türkiye için daha uygun olduğunu göstermiştir. Enflasyonun yüzde 0’dan yüzde 10’a yükselmesi sonucu, M1 para arzı kullanılarak tahmin edilen refah maliyetinin GSYİH’nın yüzde 0.52’si ve 0.54’ü arasında olduğu güzlemlenmiştir.

The Welfare Cost of Inflation in Turkey

This paper follows Bailey 1956 and estimates the welfare cost of inflation in Turkey by using annual data for the period 1970-2013. In this study, two functional form of money demand specifications are estimated: Meltzer’s 1963 log-log specification, and 2 Cagan’s 1956 semi-log specification. Based on the results of the two competing specifications, it is decided to rely more on the welfare cost measure obtained under the log-log money demand specification. Estimation results suggest that welfare cost generated by an increase in inflation from 0 to 10 percent ranges between 0.52 and 0.54 percent of GDP using M1 as the measure of money.


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