Türkiye’de Petrol Fiyatlarından Enflasyona Asimetrik ve Doğrusal Olmayan Geçişkenlik

Petrol fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmaların önemli ekonomik sonuçları olduğundan akademisyenler ve politika yapıcılar tarafından sıkça araştırılan konuların başında gelmektedir. Petrol fiyatlarındaki artışlar petrol ihraç eden ülkeler için iyi olsa da, Türkiye gibi Petrol yoksunu ve enerji ihtiyacının büyük bölümünü petrol ithal ederek karşılayan ülkeler için kötüdür. Bu alandaki kapsamlı araştırmalar, küresel ham petrol fiyatlarının yerel enflasyon üzerindeki etkisinin çok net olmadığını göstermektedir. Bu çalışmada Genişletilmiş Phillips eğrisi yaklaşımına dayanarak, doğrusal ve doğrusal olmayan ARDL yöntemleriyle dünya petrol fiyatlarındaki değişimlerin Türkiye’de tüketici ve üretici fiyatları üzerindeki asimetrik etkisi incelenmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre petrol fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmaların tüketici ve üretici fiyatları üzerindeki etkisi uzun dönemde asimetrikken, kısa dönemde ise simetriktir. Dünya petrol fiyatlarındaki %100’lük bir artış sonucunda yurtiçi tüketici fiyat endeksi (CPI) %13,05 üretici fiyat endeksi (PPI) %14,7 artarken, petrol fiyatlarındaki %100’lük bir azalış tüketici fiyat endeksini %11,27, üretici fiyat endeksini %7,24 azaltmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ham Petrol Fiyatları, Asimetrik Geçişkenlik, Enflasyon, NARDL

Asymmetric and Nonlinear Pass-Through of Global Crude Oil Price to Inflation in Turkey

Since the fluctuations in oil prices have important economic consequences, it is one of the most frequently investigated topics by scholars and policymakers. Although increase in oil prices is good for oil exporting countries, it is bad for countries like Turkey who meet energy needs by importing crude oil. The effect of global crude oil prices on domestic inflation is not very clear. In this study, based on the augmented Phillips curve framework, linear and nonlinear ARDL methods are used to examine the asymmetric effects of oil price fluctuations on consumer and producer prices in Turkey. According to the empirical results, the effects of fluctuations in oil prices on consumer and producer prices are asymmetrical in the long run and symmetrical in the short run. A %100 increase in oil price increases CPI by %13,05 and PPI by %14,7. A %100 decrease in oil price decrease CPI by %11,27 and PPI by %7,24.

Keywords:

Crude Oil Prices, Asymmetric Pass-through, Inflation, NARDL,

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