İlk Doğum Kararının Sosyoekonomik Belirleyicileri: Eş Zamanlı Hazard Modelleri

Bu çalışmada kadınların ilk doğum kararını etkileyen sosyoekonomik faktörlerin eş zamanlı hazard modelleri yardımıyla belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu bağlamda TÜİK 2015 Hanehalkı Bütçe Anketi verileri kullanılarak yarı parametrik orantılı hazard modelleri çerçevesinde kişinin ve eşinin yaşı, eğitim seviyesi, engellilik durumu ile hanehalkı büyüklüğü ve kadının gelirinin ilk doğum kararı üzerindeki etkileri tespit edilmiştir. Yapılan analizde veri setindeki eş zamanlı gözlemlere rastlanılması nedeniyle Efron, Breslow ve Kesin hazard yakınsamaları kullanılmıştır. Efron orantılı hazard model yakınsamasının daha tutarlı sonuçlar verdiği görülmüştür. Ayrıca ilk doğum kararının ertelenmesinde en önemli etkenlerin sırasıyla kadının engel durumu, yaşı ve eğitim durumu olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. 

Socioeconomic Determinants of First Birth Decisions: Tied Hazard Models

In this study, it is aimed to determine the socioeconomic factors that affect the first birth decision of women using the tied hazard models. In this context, the effect of woman’s age, education level, disability status, household size and income on the first birth decision are determined applying semi-parametric Efron, Breslow and Exact approximations of tied hazard models on the Turkstat 2015 Household Budget Survey data because of the frequency of tied observations in the data set. In the analyzes, Efron approximation produced more consistent results. In addition, it is concluded that the most important factors in the first birth decision are disability status of the woman, age and her educational level.

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