PARASAL BİRLİK SÜRECİNDE KONJONKTÜR DALGALANMALARININ UYUMLAŞTIRILMASI :1987-2002

Bu çalışmada, temel ekonomik göstergeleri uzun dönem faiz oranı, döviz kuru, enflasyon oranı, işsizdik oranı, büyüme oranı, cari işlemler dengesi (GSYİH’nın % olarak), borç (GSYİH’nın % olarak) ve açık (GSYİH’nın % olarak)) temelinde 1987-2002 yılları arasında Eurozone’daki ülkelerin konjonktür dalgalanmalarının senkronizasyonu İncelenmektedir. EMU’ya girmeden önce adayların çeşitli uyumlaştırması kriterlerini yerine getirmesi gerekir. Birinci kısımda, Euro’nun etapları incelenmektedir.Takip eden kısımda, Euro’nun güçlü yanları, zayıflıkları, fırsatlar ve tehlikeler (SWOT) analizi yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın metodolojisiyle doğrudan alakalı literatür araştırmalarının yer aldığı kısmı takiben elde edilen verilerle Eurozone ülkelerinin konjonktür dalgalanmalarının karşılaştırması yapılmıştır. Ülkelerin bu dönemdeki makroekonomik göstergelerinde eş zamanlılık düzeyinin yüksek olmasına karşın, dalga boylarının birbirlerine göre farklılıklar arz ettiği görülmüştür. Ayrıca çalışmada EMU’nun piyasa giriş tarihi ile beraber bu dalga boylarının birbirlerine daha çok yakınlaştığı ve dalgalanmaların boylarının ise daha küçüldüğü sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

SWOT Analizi, Avrupa Merkez Bankası, Tek Avrupa Hareketi, Uyumlaştırma, Konjonktür Dalgalanmaları, Maastricht Anlaşması

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