Finansal Yatırım Kararında Duygusal Faktörlerin Rolü: Bir Literatür Taraması

Modern finans teorisine göre yatırımcılar yatırım kararlarını verirken piyasa bilgisine eksiksiz sahip olup, bu bilgiyi doğru analiz edip, sonuç olarak beklediği faydayı maksimize edecek şekilde karar verir. Bu fayda riske göre getiridir. Dolayısı ile temel varsayımı “rasyonel yatırımcılar” ve “beklenen fayda teorisi” olan bu bakış açısı, yatırımcının belli bir riske göre getirisini maksimize edecek yatırım kararını vereceğini öngörür. Davranışsal finans ise yatırımcıların getiri ve risk dışında başka faktörlerden de etkilenebileceğini, bu sebeple rasyonellikten, hem mikro seviyede birey olarak hem de makro seviyede piyasaları etkileyecek şekilde sapabileceğini savunur. Bu çalışma, irrasyonel yatırımcı davranışlarıyla ilgili literatüre genel bir bakış atıp, özellikle duygusal faktörlerin etkisine dikkat çekerek “duygu hevristiği” ve yatırım kararına olan etkisi ile ilgili yeni çalışmaları desteklemeyi hedeflemektedir. Nispeten bakir olan bu alanda, disiplinler arası bakış açısıyla, psikoloji, sosyoloji ve pazarlama gibi diğer sosyal bilimlerden de katkı alarak yeni çalışmalar yapılmasının, yatırım kararlarında duygusal faktörlerin etkisinin anlaşılması açısından faydalı olacağı öngörülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Davranışsal Finans, Etkin Piyasa Hipotezi, Yatırım Kararı, Yatırımcı Davranışı, Duygu Hevristiği.

PDF

___

Aaker, David A. – Jacobson, Robert (1994), “The Financial Information Content of Perceived Quality”, Journal of Marketing Research, 31, pp. 191-201.
Ackert, Lucy - Deaves, Richard (2009), Behavioral Finance: Psychology, Decision-making and Markets, Cengage Learning, Ohaio.
Ang, James - Chua, Ansley – Jiang, Danling (2010), “Is A better than B? How Affect Influences the Marketing and Pricing of Financial Securities”, Financial Analysts Journal, 66, pp. 40–54.
Aspara, Jaakko – Nyman, Henrich -Tikkanen, Henrikki (2008), “Influence of Share Ownership in Repeat Patronage”, Journal of Consumer Behavior, 7(2), pp. 149-163.
Aspara, Jaakko - Tikkanen, Henrikki (2010a), “Consumers’ Stock Preferences Beyond Expected Financial Returns: The Inﬂuence of Product and Brand Evaluations”, International Journal of Bank Marketing, 28, pp. 193–221.
Aspara, Jaakko - Tikkanen, Henrikki (2010b), “The Role of Company Affect in Stock Investments: Towards Blind, Undemanding, Non-comparative, and Committed Love”, Journal of Behavioral Finance, 11, pp. 103–113.
Aspara, Jaakko - Tikkanen, Henrikki (2011a), “Individuals’ Affect-based Motivations to Invest in Stocks: Beyond Expected Financial Returns and Risks”, Journal of Behavioral Finance, 12(2), pp. 78-89.
Aspara, Jaakko - Tikkanen, Henrikki (2011b), “Corporate Marketing in the Stock Market: The Impact of Company Identification on Individuals' Investment Behavior”, European Journal of Marketing, 45(9/10), pp. 1446-1469.
Aytekin, Y. Emre - Aygün, Mehmet (2016), “Finansta Yeni Bir Alan: Davranışsal Finans”, Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2, ss. 143-156.
Bailey, Warren - Kumar, Alok - Ng, David (2011), “Behavioral Biases of Mutual Fund Investors”, Journal of Financial Economics, 102, pp. 1-27.
Barber, Brad M. - Odean, Terrance (2008), “All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors”, Review of Financial Studies, 21(2), pp. 785-818.
Barberis, Nicholas - Thaler, Richard (2003), “A Survey of Behavioral Finance”, In Constantinides, George M. - Harris, Milton - Stulz, Rene M. (Ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance (1B), Elsevier, North Holland, pp. 1053-1123.
Bayazıt Hayta, Ateş (2014), “Bireysel Yatirimcilarin Finansal Risk Algisina Etki Eden Psikolojik Önyargilar”, Türkiye Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 183, ss. 329-352.
Bessette, Douglas L.- Wilson, Robyn S.- Arvai, Joseph L. (2019), “Do people disagree with themselves? Exploring the internal consistency of complex, unfamiliar, and risky decisions”, Journal of Risk Research, pp. 1-13.
Chen, Gong-Meng - Kim, Kenneth A. - Nofsinger, John R. - Rui, Oliver M. (2007), “Trading Performance, Disposition Effect, Overconfidence, Representativeness Bias, and Experience of Emerging Market Investors”, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 20(4), pp. 425-451.
Clark-Murphy, Marilyn - Soutar, Geoffrey N. (2004), “What Individual Investors Value: Some Australian Evidence”, Journal of Economic Psychology, 25(4), pp. 539-555.
De Long, J. Bradford - Shleifer, Andrei - Summers, Lawrence H. - Waldmann, Robert J. (1990), “Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets”, Journal of Political Economy, 98(4), pp. 703-738.
Epstein, Seymour (1994), “Integration of the Cognitive and the Psychodynamic Unconscious”, American Psychologist, 49(8), pp. 709-724.
Fama, Eugene (1970), “Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work”, The Journal of Finance, 25(2), pp. 383-417.
Finucane, Melissa L. - Alhakami, Ali - Slovic, Paul - Johnson, Stephen M. (2000), “The Affect Heuristic in Judgments of Risks and Benefits”, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13, pp. 1–17.
Frazzini, Andrea (2006), “The Disposition Effect and Underreaction to News”, The Journal of Finance, 61(4), pp. 2017-2046.
French, Kenneth - Roll, Richard (1986), “Stock Return Variances: The Arrival of Information and the Reaction of Traders”, Journal of Financial Economics, 17(1), pp. 5-26.
Frieder, Laura - Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar (2005), “Brand Perceptions and the Market for Common Stock”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 40, pp. 57–85.
Friedman, Milton (1953), Essays in Positive Economics, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Glaser, Marcus - Weber, Martin (2007), “Overconfidence and Trading Volume”, Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 32(1), pp. 1-36.
Henderson, Vicky (2012), “Prospect Theory, Liquidation, and the Disposition Effect”, Management Science, 58(2), pp. 445-460.
Ito, Takatoshi - Lyons, Richard K. - Melvin, Michael T. (1998), “Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment”, The Journal of Finance, 53, pp. 1111-1130.
Kahneman, Daniel - Frederick, Shane (2002), “Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment”, In Gilovich, Thomas - Griffin, Dale - Kahneman, Daniel (Eds.), Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 49-82.
Kahneman, Daniel - Tversky, Amos (1972), “Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness”, Cognitive Psychology, 3, pp. 430-454.
Kahneman, Daniel - Tversky, Amos (1979), Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk”, Econometrica, 47(2), pp. 263-91.
Kahyaoğlu, Mehmet Burak (2011), “Yatırım Kararlarına Etki Eden Çeşitli Duygusal ve Psikolojik Faktörlere Maruz Kalma Düzeyi Üzerinde Cinsiyetin Rolü: İMKB Bireysel Hisse Senedi Yatırımcıları Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Degisi, 7(1), ss.29-51.
Karrh, James A (2004), “Does advertising influence investors? Evidence and research propositions”, Journal of Current Issues Research in Advertising, 26(2), pp. 1-10.
Kumar, Alok – Dhar, Ravi (2001), "A Non-Random Walk Down the Main Street: Impact of Price Trends on Trading Decisions of Individual Investors," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm208, Yale School of Management.
Lane, Vicki - Jacobson, Robert (1995), “Stock Market Reactions to Brand Extension Announcements: The Effects of Brand Attitude and Familiarity”, Journal of Marketing, 59(1), pp. 63-77.
Lee, Byung Hwan - O’Brien, John - Sivaramakrishnan, Kalyanakrishnan (2008), “An Analysis of Financial Analysts Optimism in Long-term Growth Forecasts”, Journal of Behavioral Finance, 9(3), pp. 171-184.
Lintner, John (1965), “The Valuation of Risk Assets and the Selection of Risky Investments in Stock Portfolios and Capital Budgets”, The Review of Economics and Statistics,47(1), pp. 13-37.
Loewenstein, George F. - Weber, Elke U. - Hsee, Cristopher K. - Welch, Ned (2001), “Risk as Feelings”, Psychological Bulletin, 127(2), pp. 267-286.
Macgregor, Donald G. - Slovic, Paul - Dreman, David - Berry, Micheal (2000), “Imagery, Affect, and Financial Judgment”, The Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets, 1(2), pp. 104-110.
Mehra, Rajnish - Prescott, Edward (1985), “The Equity Premium: A Puzzle”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 15(2), pp. 145-161.
Mcfadden, Daniel - Machina, Mark J. - Baron, Jonathan (1999), Rationality for Economists? In Fischhoff, Baruch - Manski, Charles F., Elicitation of Preferences, Springer, Netherlands, pp. 73-110.
Mellers, Barbara A. (2000), “Choice and the Relative Pleasure of Consequences”, Psychological Bulletin, 26(6), pp. 910-924.
Odean, Terrance (1998), “Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?”, The Journal of Finance, 53(5), pp. 1775-1798.
Odean, Terrance (1999), “Do Investors Trade Too Much?”, American Economic Review, 89, pp. 1279-1298.
Onur, Sara – Kırıkcı, Süreyya (2018), “Literatür İncelemesi: Planlı Davranış Teorisi ve Davranışsal İktisat”, International Social Studies Journal, 4(23), ss. 4534-4548.
Schoenbachler, Daniel D. - Gordon, Geoffrey L. - Aurand, Timothy W. (2004), “Building Brand Loyalty Through Individual Stock Ownership”, Journal of Product & Brand Management, 13(7), pp. 488–497.
Sezer, Durmuş – Demir, Sezgin (2015), “Finansal Yatırımcıların Okuryazarlık ve Blişsel Yetenek Düzeylerinin Psikolojik Yanılsamalar ile İlişkisi”, Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, 66, ss. 69-88.
Sharpe, William (1963), “A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis”, Management Science, 9(2), pp. 277-293.
Shefrin, Hersh (2002), Beyond Greed and Fear, Oxford University Press, UK.
Shefrin, Hersh (2005), A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing, First Edition, Elsevier Academic Press, Boston.
Shefrin, Hersh- Statman, Meir (2000), “Behavioral Portfolio Theory”, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 35(2), pp. 127 -151.
Shiller, Robert J. (1998), “Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System”, In Taylor, John B. - Woodford, Michael (Ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1, Elsevier, North Holland, pp. 1305-1340.
Shleifer, Andrei (2000), Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioural Finance, Oxford University Press, UK.
Shleifer, Andrei - Vishny, Robert W. (1997), “The Limits of Arbitrage”, The Journal of Finance, 52(1), pp. 35-55.
Slovic, Paul - Finucane, Melissa L. - Peters, Ellen - Macgregor, Donald G. (2002), “Rational Actors or Rational Fools: Implications of the Affect Heuristic for Behavioral Economics”, Journal of Socio-Economics, 31, pp. 329– 342.
Slovic, Paul - Finucane, Melissa L. - Peters, Ellen - Macgregor, Donald G. (2007), “The Affect Heuristic”, European Journal of Operational Research, 177, pp. 1333–1352.
Simon, Herb A. (1986), “Rationality in Psychology and Economics”, In Hogarth, Robin M. - Reder, Melvin W. (Eds.), Rational Choice, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp. 25-40.
Statman, Meir - Fisher, Kenneth L. - Anginer, Deniz (2008), Affect in a Behavioral Asset Pricing Model, Financial Analysts Journal, 64, pp. 20–29.
Statman, Meir - Thorley, Steven - Vorkink, Keith (2006), “Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume”, Review of Financial Studies, 19(4), pp. 1531-1565.
Taner, Berna - Akkaya, G. Cenk (2005), “Yatırımcı Psikolojisi ve Davranışsal Finans Yaklaşımı”, Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, 27, ss. 47-54.
Tversky, Amos - Kahneman, Daniel (1974), “Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases”, Science, New Series, 185(4157), pp. 1124-1131.
Tversky, Amos - Kahneman, Daniel (1981), “The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice”, Science, 211(4481), pp. 453-458.
Tversky, Amos - Kahneman, Daniel (1991), “Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106 (4), pp. 1039-1061.
Usul, Naime - Özdemir, Özlem - Kiessling, Timothy (2017), “Affect-based Stock Investment Decision: The Role of Affective Self-affinity”, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), 68, pp. 97-109.
Warneryd, Karl-Erik (2001), Stock-Market Psychology: How People Value and Trade Stocks, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK.
William, James (1890), Principles of Psychology, Dover Publications.
Zajonc, Robert B. (1980), “Feeling and Thinking: Preferences Need No Inferences”, American Psychologist, 35(2), pp. 151-175.
Zeelenberg, Marcel - Beattie, Jane - Van Der Pligt, Joop - De Vries, Nanne K. (1996), “Consequences of Regret Aversion: Effects of Expected Feedback on Risky Decision Making”, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65(2), pp. 148-158.