TÜRKİYE’DE DIŞ TİCARET BELGESİ BELİRLEYİCİLERİNİN SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA ÖNGÖRÜLMESİ: 1989-2005

Bu çalışma; Türkiye’de 1989–2005 dönemi aylık verileriyle parasalcı, elastikiyet ve massetme yaklaşımlarında kullanılan yurtiçi ve yurtdışı gelir, reel döviz kuru ve parasal büyüklük (M3) değişkenleri yardımıyla dış ticaretin belirleyicilerini tahmin etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. ARDL yöntemiyle model tahmininde ticaret dengesi ve belirleyicileri arasında uzun dönemde eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığına ve massetme yaklaşımını destekleyen sonuçlara ulaşılmıştır. Uzun dönemde reel yurtiçi gelirdeki yüzde 1’lik bir artışın ticaret dengesinde yaklaşık yüzde 1.3’lük bir kötüleşmeye, yurtdışı gelirdeki yüzde 1’lik bir artışın ise yüzde 0.60’lık bir iyileşmeye neden olduğu görülmüştür. Reel döviz kuru ve M3 parasal değişkenleri uzun dönemde anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Reel döviz kurunun uzun dönemde pozitif ve anlamsız, kısa dönemde negatif ve anlamlı olması, Türkiye’de zayıf bir J-eğrisi etkisinin var olabileceğini göstermiştir.

TÜRKİYE’DE DIŞ TİCARET BELGESİ BELİRLEYİCİLERİNİN SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA ÖNGÖRÜLMESİ: 1989-2005

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Bibtex @ { ausbf42649, journal = {Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi}, issn = {0378-2921}, eissn = {1309-1034}, address = {}, publisher = {Ankara Üniversitesi}, year = {2008}, volume = {63}, number = {04}, pages = {29 - 64}, doi = {10.1501/SBFder\_0000002078}, title = {TÜRKİYE’DE DIŞ TİCARET BELGESİ BELİRLEYİCİLERİNİN SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA ÖNGÖRÜLMESİ: 1989-2005}, key = {cite}, author = {Altınbaş, Halil and Çetin, Rahmi} }
APA Altınbaş, H. & Çetin, R. (2008). TÜRKİYE’DE DIŞ TİCARET BELGESİ BELİRLEYİCİLERİNİN SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA ÖNGÖRÜLMESİ: 1989-2005 . Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi , 63 (04) , 29-64 . DOI: 10.1501/SBFder_0000002078
MLA Altınbaş, H. , Çetin, R. "TÜRKİYE’DE DIŞ TİCARET BELGESİ BELİRLEYİCİLERİNİN SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA ÖNGÖRÜLMESİ: 1989-2005" . Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi 63 (2008 ): 29-64 <
Chicago Altınbaş, H. , Çetin, R. "TÜRKİYE’DE DIŞ TİCARET BELGESİ BELİRLEYİCİLERİNİN SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA ÖNGÖRÜLMESİ: 1989-2005". Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi 63 (2008 ): 29-64
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - TÜRKİYE’DE DIŞ TİCARET BELGESİ BELİRLEYİCİLERİNİN SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA ÖNGÖRÜLMESİ: 1989-2005 AU - HalilAltınbaş, RahmiÇetin Y1 - 2008 PY - 2008 N1 - doi: 10.1501/SBFder_0000002078 DO - 10.1501/SBFder_0000002078 T2 - Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 29 EP - 64 VL - 63 IS - 04 SN - 0378-2921-1309-1034 M3 - doi: 10.1501/SBFder_0000002078 UR - Y2 - 2022 ER -
EndNote %0 Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi TÜRKİYE’DE DIŞ TİCARET BELGESİ BELİRLEYİCİLERİNİN SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA ÖNGÖRÜLMESİ: 1989-2005 %A Halil Altınbaş , Rahmi Çetin %T TÜRKİYE’DE DIŞ TİCARET BELGESİ BELİRLEYİCİLERİNİN SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA ÖNGÖRÜLMESİ: 1989-2005 %D 2008 %J Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi %P 0378-2921-1309-1034 %V 63 %N 04 %R doi: 10.1501/SBFder_0000002078 %U 10.1501/SBFder_0000002078
ISNAD Altınbaş, Halil , Çetin, Rahmi . "TÜRKİYE’DE DIŞ TİCARET BELGESİ BELİRLEYİCİLERİNİN SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA ÖNGÖRÜLMESİ: 1989-2005". Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi 63 / 04 (Nisan 2008): 29-64 .
AMA Altınbaş H. , Çetin R. TÜRKİYE’DE DIŞ TİCARET BELGESİ BELİRLEYİCİLERİNİN SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA ÖNGÖRÜLMESİ: 1989-2005. SBF Dergisi. 2008; 63(04): 29-64.
Vancouver Altınbaş H. , Çetin R. TÜRKİYE’DE DIŞ TİCARET BELGESİ BELİRLEYİCİLERİNİN SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA ÖNGÖRÜLMESİ: 1989-2005. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi. 2008; 63(04): 29-64.
IEEE H. Altınbaş ve R. Çetin , "TÜRKİYE’DE DIŞ TİCARET BELGESİ BELİRLEYİCİLERİNİN SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA ÖNGÖRÜLMESİ: 1989-2005", , c. 63, sayı. 04, ss. 29-64, Nis. 2008, doi:10.1501/SBFder_0000002078