ENFLASYON HEDEFLEMESİ, MALİYET ENFLASYONU, BİRİKİM VE DÖNÜŞÜM

Bu çalışmada üretimde ithal girdi kullanan, uluslararası ticarete açık, borçlu ve küçük bir ekonomi için tek sektörlü Kalecki tipi bir model geliştirilmiştir. Modelde maliyet eki (mark up) oranının faiz oranı ve döviz kurundaki değişikliklere hassasiyet göstermesinin yanı sıra yerli firmalara yabancılar tarafından uzun dönemli finansman sağlanmaktadır. Geliştirilen model çerçevesinde yüksek faiz oranı ve yerli para biriminin güçlenmesiyle temsil edilen enflasyon hedeflemesi politikasının kısa ve uzun dönem ekonomik denge değerlerine olan etkisi incelenmektedir. Olası senaryolardan gelişmekte olan ülkeler için en geçerli olanı kısa dönemde, kâr oranı, kapasite kullanım oranı ve sermaye birikim hızında, miktarı model parametreleriyle belirlenen bir düşüş öngörmektedir. Firmaların borç-sermaye oranının ve dış borçların toplam borç içindeki payının bu sonucun ortaya çıkmasında önemli rol oynadığı görülmektedir. Borç-sermaye oranının sabitlenmesiyle tanımlanan uzun dönemde denge çözümlemesi enflasyon hedeflemesi politikasının kısa dönemli daraltıcı etkilerinin uzun dönemli dengesizlikleri de beraberinde getirebileceğine işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Enflasyon hedeflemesi, Kalecki tipi model, s nai borç, esnek maliyet eki (markup) oran , faiz oran

Inflation Targeting, Cost Inflation, Growth and Distribution

This paper develops a one-sector Kaleckian model of an import dependent indebted small open economy where the mark up rate is sensitive to both changes in the interest rate and the exchange rate and foreigners provide part of the long term finance. The short and long run consequences of an inflation targeting policy in the form of high interest rates and strong domestic currency are examined. Among the possible short run scenarios, the one most relevant for developing countries foresers a decline in the profit rate, the capacity utilization rate and the rate of accumulation as well as the employment rate and the real wage. Leverage ratio of the firms and the extent of external indebtedness play an important role in bringing about this result. Longrun analysis reveals that this scenario is associated with stability in the long run and that, in the long run, the extent of foreign indebtedness and the responsiveness of capital inflows to the return on existing portfolios determines the direction of the effects of inflation targeting on the equilibrium leverage ratio.

Keywords:

Inflation targeting, Kaleckian model, debt, flexible mark up rate, interest rate,

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