Mohammad Reza DEHSHIRI, Hossein SHAHMORADI

Donald Trump’ın Başkanlığında İran Elitlerinin Kore Krizi’ne İlişkin Algılarında Süreklilik ve Değişim

Donald Trump’ın cumhurbaşkanlığının ilk yarısında Kore Yarımadası’nda yaşanan çekişmelerin artması, aynı dönemde Singapur, Hanoi ve Askerden Arındırılmış Bölge (DMZ)’de gerçekleştirilen iki Trump - Kim zirvesi akabinde yaşanan yeni gelişmeler ve ABD’nin Kapsamlı Ortak Eylem Planı olarak bilinen İran nükleer anlaşmasından tek taraflı olarak çekilmesi, İranlı siyasi elitleri Kore Krizini daha yakından takip etmeye, yarımadadaki sorunların geleceğine dair tutumlarını ele almaya ve ABD'nin Pyongyang'a yönelik seçeneklerini değerlendirmeye sevk etmiştir. İranlı siyasi elitlerin çoğu Kore Krizinin askeri bir çözümü̈ bulunmadığına ve Yarımada'da barış için tek yolun özellikle bu krizin kökenine odaklanan ciddi ve dengeli bir müzakere sürecinden geçtiğine inanmaktadır. Bununla birlikte, İranlı elitler arasında Kore Krizi’ne ilişkin iki temel algı eğiliminin varlığından söz edilebilir. Makalenin bulguları, ABD’nin İran nükleer anlaşmasına yönelik tutumunun İranlı entelektüeller arasında Kuzey Kore nükleer programı için yapılabilecek herhangi bir yapıcı müzakerenin geleceğine yönelik daha olumsuz bir algıya yol açtığını, ancak İranlı entelektüellerin ABD’nin sert güç ve diğer sert seçenekler kullanacağı fikrinden uzaklaşarak daha çok yumuşak güç ve psikolojik savaşa yoğunlaştığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Kuzey Kore, Nükleer program, İranlı entelektüeller, JCPOA, Donald Trump

Continuity and Change in the Perception of Iranian Elites toward the Korean Crisis in Donald Trump’s Presidency

The escalation of conflicts on the Korean Peninsula during the first half of Trump`s presidency, also the new developments following the Trump – Kim summits in Singapore, Hanoi and the DMZ in one side and the U.S. unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the other side have made the Iranian intellectuals to review the Korean crisis more thoroughly and reflect their attitudes about the future of issues in the peninsula and the U.S. options towards Pyongyang. Although, it seems most of the Iranian scholars believe the Korean crisis has no military solution and the only path for peace in the Peninsula would be serious and balanced negotiations with a special focus on the roots of the crisis, two trends of perception toward the crisis could be identified among the Iranian elites. The findings of the paper demonstrate that the U.S. behavior toward JCPOA, has raised further negative views about the future of any constructive negotiation on North Korean nuclear program among the Iranian intellectuals but their focus on U.S. use of hard power and harsh options have shifted to the implementation of American soft power and psychological war.

Keywords:

North Korea, Nuclear program, Iranian intellectuals, JCPOA, Donald Trump,

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