ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND HOUSING DEVELOPMENT: REGIONAL BASED EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS IN TURKEY

Öz The relationship between economic growth and housing construction sector activity has been under scrutiny internationally for more than five decades. This study seeks to add to this literature by exploring the economic drivers of housing construction activity in Turkey. The case study is important for three reasons: first, this analysis is one of the rare studies to have been undertaken in an emerging market context; second, as in many global markets, there is considerable spatial variation in activity across the country and, in a manner that is replicable for European markets, we have addressed this phenomena by combining insights generated by undertaking analysis at different spatial scales (NUTS levels); third, we offer a strategy that might be replicated elsewhere for measuring construction activity in the absence of housing starts and completion data. The results of our analysis suggest that rather than being a function of uneven economic growth, much of the variation in construction activity might actually be a consequence of land use regulation, proactive planning and other public policy interventions at local and national level.

Kaynakça

ADAMS, D and Watkins, C (2015) The Value of Planning, London: RTPI.

ALKAY, E., Watkins, C. & Keskin, B. (2018). Explaining Spatial Variation in Housing Construction Activity in Turkey, International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 22(2), 119-130, https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2018.443

BAHÇEKAPILI, C. (2015). Türkiye Ekonomisinde 2011 Sonrası Sınırlı Büyümenin Nedenleri Üzerine Bir Analiz, Marmara Üniversitesi, İ.İ.B. Dergisi, Cilt XXXVII, Sayı I, 111-124.

BIELSA, J., Duarte, R. (2011). Size and linkages of Spanish construction industry: key sector or deformation of the economy?, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 35, 317-334.

BLAYSE, A.M., Manley, K. (2004). Key influences on construction innovation, Construction Innovation, 4, 143-154.

BON, R., Birgönül, T. & Özdoğan, İ. (1999). An input-output analysis of the Turkish construction sector, 1973-1990: a note, Construction Management and Economics, 17(5), 543-551.

BRAMLEY, G., Watkins, C. (1995) Steering the Housing Market, Bristol, Policy Press.

CHANG, T., Nieh, C.C. (2004). A note on testing the causal link between construction activity and economic growth in Taiwan, Journal of Asian Economics, 15, 591-598.

CHOW, G.C. (1993). Capital formation and economic growth in China, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 809-842.

ELINWA, A.U., Joshua, M. (2001). Time-overrun factors in Nigerian construction industry, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 127(5), 419-425.

EWING, B.T., Wang, Y. (2005). Single housing starts and macroeconomic activity: an application of generalized impulse response analysis, Applied Economic Letters, 12, 187-190.

GIANG, D.T.H., Pheng, L.S. (2011). Role of construction in economic development: Review of key concepts in the past 40 years, Habitat International, 35, 118-125.

HENNEBERRY, J., McGough, T., Mouzakis, F (2005). “Estimating the Impact of Planning on Commercial Property Markets” in Adams, D, Watkins, C and White, M (Eds) Planning, Public Policy and Property Markets, Oxford: Blackwells

HUANG, D.S. (1973). Short-Run Instability in Single-Family Housing Starts, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 68(344), 788-792.

ILHAN, B., Yaman, H. (2011). A comparative input-output analysis of the construction sector in Turkey and EU countries, Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 18(3), 248-265.

JENSEN, J.S., Gottlieb, S.C., Thuesen, C.L. (2011). Construction sector development: frames and governance responses, Building Research and Information, 39(6), 665-667.

KARAHASAN, B.C. (2015). Regional Inequalities in Turkey: Post 2001 Era, Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B. Dergisi, Cilt XXXVII, Sayı I, 125-147.

KEOGH, G., D’Archy, E. (1999). Property Market Efficiency: An Institutional Economics Perspective, Urban Studies, 36(13), 2401-2414.

KOFOWOROLA, O.F., Gheewala, S. (2008). An input-output analysis of Thailand construction sector, Construction Management and Economics, 26, 1227-1240.

MAISEL, S.J. (1963). A Theory of Fluctuations in Residential Construction Starts, The American Economic Review, 53(3), 359-383.

MALLICK, H. & Mahalik, M.K. (2010). Constructing the economy: the role of construction sector in India’s growth, Journal of Real Estate Finance Economy, 40, 368-384.

MALPEZZI, S. & Mayo, S.K. (1987). The Demand for Housing in Developing Countries: Empirical Estimates from Household Data, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 35(4), 687-721, https://doi.org/10.1086/451618

MAYER, C.J., Tsuriel Somerville, C. (2000). Land use regulation and new construction, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 30, 639-662.

MAYO, R.R., Liu, G. (1995). Reform agenda of Chinese construction industry, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 121(1), 80-85.

OFORI, G. (1994). Formulating a long-term strategy for developing the construction industry of Singapore, Construction Management and Economics, 12, 219-231.

OFORI, G. (2001). Indicators for measuring construction industry development in developing countries, Building Research and Information, 29(1), 40-50.

ÖNER, M.A., Sarıtaş, Ö. (2005). A systems approach to policy analysis and development planning: Construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 72, 886-911.

OZKAN, F., Ozkan, O., Gunduz, M. (2012). Causal relationship between construction investment policy and economic growth in Turkey, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 79, 362-370.

PIERDZIOCH, C., Rülke, J.C., Stadmann, G. (2012). Housing Starts in Canada, Japan, and the United States: Do Forecasters Herd?, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 45(3), 754-773.

PIETROFORTE, R., Bon, R. (1995). An input-output analysis of the Italian construction sector, 1959-1998, Construction Management and Economics, 13, 253-262.

PIETROFORTE, R., Gregori, T. (2003). An input-output analysis of the construction sector in highlydeveloped economies, Construction Management and Economics, 21, 319-327.

POLENSKE, K.R., Sivitanides, P. (1990). Linkages in the construction sector, The Annals of Regional Science, 24, 147-161.

POSNER, R. (1998). Creating a legal framework for economic development, The World Bank Research Observer, 13(1), 1-11.

PURI, A.K., Van Lierop, J. (1988). Forcasting housing starts, International Journal of Forecasting, 4(1), 125-134.

RAHMAN, M., Mustafa, M. (1997). Growth in US housing starts, real consumer depth, real GDP and the long-term real interest rate: a vector cointegration analysis, Applied Economic Letters, 4, 757-759.

RUDDOCK, L., Lopes, J. (2006). The construction sector and economic development: the ‘Bon curve’, Construction Management and Economics, 24, 717-723.

RUDDOCK, L., Ruddock, S. (2009). Reassessing productivity in the construction sector to reflect hidden innovation and the knowledge economy, Construction Management and Economics, 27, 871-879.

SLAUGHTER, E.S. (1998). Models of construction innovation, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 124(3), 226-231.

SONG, Y., Liu, C., Langston, C. (2006). Linkage measures of the construction sector using the hypothetical extraction method, Construction Management and Economics, 24, 579-589.

SU, C-K., Lin, C-Y., Wang, M-T. (2003). Taiwanese construction sector in a growing ‘maturity’ economy, 1964-1999. Construction Management and Economics, 21, 7, 719-728.

STEVENSON, J.R., Emrich, C.T., Mitchell, J.T., Cutter, S.L. (2010). Using Building Permits to Monitor Disaster Recovery: A Spatio-Temporal Case Study of Coastal Mississippi Following Hurricane Katrina, Cartography and Geographic Information Science, 37(1), 57-68.

TBB (Türkiye Bankalar Birliği), (2015). İstatistiki Raporlar, İl Bazında Kredi ve Mevduat Durumu, Temmuz 2015, www.tbb.gov.tr

THOM, R. (1985). The Relationship between Housing Starts and Mortgage Availability, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67(4), 693-696.

TMB (Turkiye Muteahhitler Birligi) (2015). Insaat Sektoru Analizi Bulteni, 2015/Temmuz, Ankara.

TOPEL, R., Rosen, S. (1988). Housing investment in the United States, Journal of Political Economy, 96(4), 718-740.

TUIK (Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu), (2014a). Illere Gore Insaat Izin Istatistikleri, Haziran 2014 (Veri TUIKden satin alinmistir).

TUIK (Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu), (2014b). İstatistiksel Tablolar, Yıllara Göre İl Nüfusları, http://tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1059

TUIK (Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu), (2015a). İstatistiksel Tablolar, Üretim Yöntemi ile GSYH, Sabit Fiyatlarla

GSYH, Faaliyet Kollarına Göre GSYH, Temmuz 2015, http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTabloArama.do

TUIK (Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu), (2015b). İstatistiksel Tablolar, Gelir İstatistikleri, Temmuz 2015, http:// www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTabloArama.do

TUIK (Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu), (2015c). İstatistiksel Tablolar, Bölgesel Hesaplar, Bölgesel Gayrisafi Katma Değer, Temmuz 2015, http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTabloArama.do

WELLS, J., Wall, D. (2003). The expansion of employment opportunities in the building construction sector in the context of structural adjustment: some evidence from Kenya and Tanzania, Habitat International, 27, 325-337.

WELLS, J. (2001). Construction and capital formation in less developed economies: unravelling the informal sector in an African city, Construction Management and Economics, 19(3), 267-274.

WHYTE, J. (2003). Innovation and users: virtual reality in the construction sector, Construction Management and Economics, 21, 565-572.

WONG, J.M.W., Ng, S.T., Chan, A.P.C. (2010). Strategic planning for the sustainable development of the construction industry in Hong Kong, Habitat International, 34, 256-263.