Kentleşme ve Sanayileşmenin CO2 Emisyonu Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye İçin ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Kentleşme ve sanayileşme bir ülkede sosyo-kültürel ve ekonomik anlamda birçok olumlu etkiye sahip iken, bazı olumsuz etkilere de neden olmaktadır. Bu olumsuz etkilerin en önemlilerinden birisi kentleşme ve sanayileşmenin çevre ve temiz hava üzerinde yaratmış olduğu etkidir. Bu etki bir ülkenin sürdürülebilir kalkınma çabalarına engel olduğundan tespit edilmesi ve bu etkinin azaltılması için politikalar üretilmesi son derece önemlidir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de 1960-2014 dönemine ait verileri kullanarak ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı ile kentleşme ve sanayileşmenin CO2 emisyonu üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmek ve analiz sonucuna göre politika önerilerinde bulunmaktır. Analizde Türkiye’de yaşanan kentleşme ve sanayileşmenin CO2 emisyonunu artırarak temiz hava üzerinde olumsuz bir etkiye neden olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu sonuç kapsamında Türkiye’de sürdürülebilir kalkınma çabalarının aksamaması için hükümetlerin kentleşme ve sanayileşme politikalarını çevre ile daha dost hale getirerek uygulaması gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Kentleşme, Sanayileşme, CO2 emisyonu

The Effect Of Urbanization And Industrialization On CO2 Emission: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach For Turkey

Urbanization and industrialization have positive effects on the socio-cultural and economic structure of a country as well as some negative effects. One of the most important of these negative effects is the negative impact of urbanization and industrialization on the environment and clean air. Since this situation adversely affects a country's sustainable development efforts, it is very important to identify and produce policies to reduce this impact. The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of urbanization and industrialization on CO2 emission by using ARDL Bounds Testing Approach and to make policy recommendations according to the analysis results. In the analysis, data for the 1960-2014 period in Turkey were used. According to the analysis results, urbanization and industrialization in Turkey increases the carbon dioxide emissions and that affects clean air negatively. As a result, to avoid disruption to the sustainable development efforts in Turkey, the government should be directed to more environmentally friendly practices in the urbanization and industrialization policies.

PDF

___

ALAM, I. ve R. QUAZI (2003), “Determinants of Capital Flight: an econometric case study of Bangladesh”, International Review of Applied Economics, 17 (1), ss. 85-103.
AL-MULALI, Usama, Che Normee Binti Che SAB, ve Hassan G. FEREIDOUNI (2012), “Exploring the bi- directional long run relationship between urbanization, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions”, Energy, 46, ss. 156-167.
AL-MULALI, Usama; Hassan Gholipour FEREIDOUNI, Janice Y. M. LEE, ve Che Normee Binti Che SAB (2013), “Exploring the relationship between urbanization, energy consumption, and CO2 emission in MENA countries”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 23, ss. 107–112.
ASUMADU-SARKODIE, Samuel ve Phebe Asantewaa OWUSU (2017), “Carbon dioxide emissions, GDP per capita, industrialization and population: An evidence from Rwanda”, Environmental Engineering Research, 22(1), ss. 116-124.
BANERJEE, A. Dolado, J. ve R. MESTRE (1998), “Error-correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single-equation Framework”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(3), ss. 267-283.
ÇETİN, Murat ve Eyyup ECEVİT (2015), “Urbanization, Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in Sub-Saharan Countries: A Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis”, Journal of Economics and Development Studies, Vol. 3, No. 2, ss. 66-76.
DİCKEY, David A. ve Wayne A. FULLER (1979), “Distrubtion of the Estimators for Autoregressive Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statiscal Association, No:49, 1979, ss. 427-431.
DİCKEY, David A. ve Wayne A. FULLER (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics For Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root Tests”, Econometrica, Cilt:49, No:4, 1981, ss. 1057-1072.
ENDERS, Walter (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series, Birinci Baskı, Wiley.
ENGLE, R. F. ve C. W. J. GRANGER, (1987), “Co-Integration And Error Correction Representation, Estimation And Testing”, Econometrica, Vol. 55, No.2, ss. 251-276.
GÖKULU, Gökhan (2010), “Kent Güvenliği Kentleşme ve Suç İlişkisi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 24, Sayı:1, ss. 209-226.
GREGORY, Allan W. ve Bruce H. HANSEN (1996), “Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, 70, ss. 99-126.GÜVEN, Ahmet (2016), “Kent, Kentlileşme ve Kentsel Yönetim İhtiyacı”, Journal of International Management, Educational and Economics Perspectives, 4(1), ss. 21–30.
HARRIS, R. I. D. (1995). Using Cointegration Analaysis in Econometric Modelling, Harlow, London.
JOHANSEN, S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, No. 2/3, ss. 231-254.
JOHANSEN, S. ve K. JUSELİUS (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to The Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), ss. 169-210.
JOSEPH, M. F. ve O. A. E. FOSU (2006), “Aggregate Import Demand And Expenditure Components In Ghana: An Econometric Analysis”, Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA).
KARLUK, S. Rıdvan (2007), Cumhuriyet’in İlanından Günümüze Türkiye Ekonomisinde Yapısal Dönüşüm, Gözden Geçirilmiş 11. Baskı, İstanbul, Beta Basım Yayım Dağıtım A.Ş.
KREMERS, J .J. M., N. R. ERİCSSON, ve J. J. DOLADO (1992), “The Pwer of Cointegration Tests”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54 (3), ss. 325–348.
LEE, Jung Wan (2019), “Lagged effect of exports, industrialization and urbanization on carbon footprint in Southeast Asia”, International Journal Of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, Vol. 26, No. 5, ss. 398–405.
LIU, Xuyi ve Junghan BAE (2018). “Urbanization and industrialization impact of CO2 emissions in China”, Journal of Cleaner Production, 172, ss. 178-186.
LIU, Yu; Hongwei XIAO, Precious ZIKHALI ve Yingkang LV (2014), “Carbon Emissions in China: A Spatial Econometric Analysis at the Regional Level”, Sustainability, 6, ss. 6005–6023.
MARTINEZ-ZARZOSO, Inmaculada ve Antonello MARUOTTI (2011), “The impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions: Evidence from developing countries”, Ecological Economics, 70, ss. 1344–1353.
NARAYAN, P.K. ve R. SMYTH (2006), “What Determines Migration Flows From Low-Income To High-Income Countries? An Empirical Investigation of Fiji-US Migration: 1972-2001”, Contemporary Economic Policy, 24(2), ss. 332-342.
NGUYEN, Quan Anh, Makoto KAKINAKA, ve Koji KOTANI (2017), “How does urbanization affect energy and CO2 emission intensities in Vietnam? Evidence from province-level data”, Social Design Engineering Series SDES-2017-8.
NIU, Honglei ve William LEKSE (2017), “Carbon emission effect of urbanization at regional level: empirical evidence from China”, Economics Discussion Paper, No. 2017-62, ss. 1-35.
PATA, Uğur Korkur (2018), “The effect of urbanization and industrialization on carbon emissions in Turkey: evidence from ARDL bounds testing procedure”, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25, ss. 7740–7747.
PESARAN, M. H., ve B. PESARAN (1997), “Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysis”, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
PESARAN, M. H. ve R. SMITH (1998), “Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs”, Journal of Economic Survey, 12(5), ss. 471-505.
PESARAN, M. H. ve Y. SHIN (1999), “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”, http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.153.3246&rep=rep1&type=pdf, (25.04.2019).
PESARAN, H. M., Y. SHIN, ve J. R. SMITH, (2001). “Bound Testing Approaches to The Analysis of Long Run Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, ss. 289-326.
PHILLIPS, P. C. B. ve P. PERRON (1988), “Test for a Unit Root in Time Series Reggression”, Biometrica, Cil:75, No:2, 335-346.
POUMANYVONG, Phetkeo ve Shinji KANEKO (2010), “Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO2 emissions? A cross-country analysis”, Ecological Economics, 70, ss. 434–444.
RAHEEM, Ibrahim Dolapo ve Joseph O. OGEBE (2017), “CO2 emissions, urbanization and industrialization Evidence from a direct and indirect heterogeneous panel analysis”, Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, Vol. 28 No. 6, ss. 851-867.
SAID, E. S. ve D. A. DICKEY (1984), “Testing for Unit Roots in ARMA(p,q) Models with Unknown p and q”, Biometrika, 71, ss. 599-607.
SALAHUDDIN, Mohammad, Jeff GOW, Md. IDRİS, Ali, HOSSAIN, Md. RAHAT, Khaleda Shaheen AL-AZAMİ, Delwar AKBAR ve Ayfer GEDİKLİ (2019), “Urbanization-globalization-CO2 emissions nexus revisited: empirical evidence from South Africa”, Heliyon, 5, ss. 1-9.
SALIM, Ruhul, Shuddhasattwa RAFIQ ve Sahar SHAFIEI (2017), “Urbanization, Energy Consumption, And Pollutant Emission In Asian Developing Economies: An Empirical Analysis”, ADBI Working Paper Series, No.718.
SIDDIQUE, Hafiz M. Abubakar, M. Tariq MAJEED ve Hafiz Khalil AHMAD (2016), “The Impact of Urbanization and Energy Consumption on CO2 Emissions in South Asia”, South Asian Studies A Research Journal of South Asian Studies, Vol. 31, No. 2, ss. 745 – 757.
ŞAHİN, Hüseyin (2007), Türkiye Ekonomisi Tarihsel Gelişimi-Bugünkü Durumu, 9. Baskı, Bursa, Ezgi Kitabevi, 2007.
TOPÇU, Mert; Miraç YAZICI ve Gökhan KARTAL (2016), “An Investigation Of Causality Between Urbanization And Carbon Emissions In Turkey”, State, Economic Policy, Taxation And Development ICOPEC, June 28-30, 2016, İstanbul, ss. 635-644.
WANG, Feng, Mengnan GAO, Juan LIU, Yuhui QIN, Ge WANG, Wenna FAN ve Luxue JI (2019), “An Empirical Study on the Impact Path of Urbanization to Carbon Emissions in the China Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration”, Applied Sciences, 9, 1116, ss. 1-18.
WATSON, Mark W. ve James H. STOCK (1993), “A Simple Estimator Of Cointegrating Vectors In Higher Order Integrated Systems”, Econometrica, Vol. 61, No. 4, ss. 783-820
WOOLDRIDGE, J. M. (2002), Introductory Econometrics A Modern Approach, Thomson Learning.
WORLD BANK (WB). “Data Bank: World Development Indicators”,http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators, (18.03.2019).
UYSAL, Doğan ve Tamer TAŞ (2016), “Kentleşme, Enerji Tüketimi Ve Çevresel Bozulmalar (Kirlilik-CO2) Arasındaki İlişkinin Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında İncelenmesi: Türkiye Örneği”, Uşak Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9/4, ss. 103-120.
YILMAZ, Ensar ve Salih ÇİTÇİ (2011), “Kentlerin Ortaya Çıkışı Ve Sosyo-Politik Açıdan Türkiye’de Kentleşme Dönemleri”, Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Kış, Cilt:10, Yıl: 2011, Sayı:35, ss. 252-267.
YÜCEŞAHİN, M. Murat ve E. Murat ÖZGÜR (2008), “Türkiye Kentlerinin Kentleşme Düzeylerinin Demografik, Ekonomik ve Sosyal Değişkenlerle Belirlenmesi”, Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 6 (2), ss. 115-139.