Seçil ŞENEL UZUNKAYA, Hasan DİNÇER, Serhat YÜKSEL

ABD’nin Ekonomik Gelişmesinin Tarihsel Bir Analizi (1947-2017)

Bu çalışmanın amacı ABD'nin ekonomik gelişiminin tarihsel bir bakış açısıyla değerlendirilmesidir. Bu amaçla, 1947 ve 2015 arasındaki dönemler için üç aylık veriler dikkate alınmıştır. Bu nedenle, bu uzun döneme odaklanarak daha uygun sonuçların elde edilebilmesi için tarihsel bir analiz yapılması amaçlanmıştır. Ayrıca ABD'nin ekonomik büyüme oranı bağımlı değişken olarak kabul edilirken, GSYİH'nin dört farklı alt başlığı (tüketim, özel yatırım, devlet harcamaları ve net ihracat) bağımsız değişkenler olarak seçilmiştir. Öte yandan, analiz sürecinde MARS metodolojisi kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, özel yatırım, hükümet harcamaları ve net ihracatın ekonomik büyüme arasında pozitif bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Belirtilen hususa ek olarak, devlet harcamalarının oranı %22.2'yi aştığında olumlu etkinin azaldığı tespit edilmiştir. Öte yandan, net ihracatın negatif olması ve % 16.3'den daha düşük bir yatırım oranı olması durumunda, ABD'nin ekonomik gelişimi olumsuz yönde etkilenecektir. Bu sonuçlar, tüketim yerine GSYİH'nin diğer üç alt bileşenlerinin ABD'nin ekonomik gelişimine katkı sağladığına dair çok önemli bilgiler vermektedir. Bu sonuçları göz önünde bulundurarak, ABD'nin özellikle özel yatırımlara ve ihracata odaklanarak büyüme stratejilerini uygulamaya koyması önerilmektedir. Bu çerçevede, bu hedefe ulaşmak için yatırımcılara vergi avantajlarının sağlanması yerinde olacaktır. Bu duruma ek olarak, hükümet ayrıca, sanayi üretimini iyileştirmek için teşvikler vererek yatırım ve ihracatın arttırılmasına olumlu etki edebilecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

ABD Ekonomisi, GSYİH, Tarihsel Analiz, Ekonomik Kalkınma, MARS

A Historical Analysis of The Economic Development of The USA (1947-2017)

The aim of this study is to evaluate economic improvement of US. For this purpose, the quarterly data for the periods between 1947 and 2015 is taken into the consideration. Therefore, focusing on this long period provides a historical view so that more appropriate results can be achieved. Moreover, economic growth of US is considered as dependent variable whereas four different subtitles of GDP (consumption, private investment, government expenditure and net export) are selected as independent variables. Furthermore, multivariate adoptive regression spline (MARS) methodology is used in the analysis process. The findings show that private investment, government expenditure and net export have a positive relationship between economic growth. It is identified that the positive effect reduces when the percentage of government expenditure exceeds 22.2%. On the other side, in case of negative net export and having lower investment ratio than 16.3%, economic development of US will be affected negatively. These results give very important information that instead of consumption, other three subtitles of GDP make a contribution to the economic development of US. By considering these results, it is recommended that US should mainly implement growth strategies by focusing on private investment and net export. Within this framework, tax advantages for these investors can be provided to reach this objective. In addition to this condition, government should also give incentives to improve industrial production so that investment and export can be increased.

Keywords:

US Economy, GDP, Historical Analysis, Economic Development, MARS,

PDF

___

Adegoriola, A. E., & Siyan, P. (2015). The Relative Impact of Money Supply and Government Expenditure on Economic Growth in Nigeria. Economy, 2(3), 49-57.
Alam, M. M., Murad, M. W., Noman, A. H. M., & Ozturk, I. (2016). Relationships among carbon emissions, economic growth, energy consumption and population growth: Testing Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for Brazil, China, India and Indonesia. Ecological Indicators, 70, 466-479.
Alexiou, C., & Nellis, J. G. (2017). Cyclical Multiplier and Zero Low Bound Effects of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth: Evidence for Greece. Australian Economic Papers, 56(2), 119-133.
Aydin, C., & Esen, Ö. (2016). The Threshold Effects of Current Account Deficits on Economic Growth in Turkey: Does the Level of Current Account Deficit Matter?. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, 7(5), 186.
Aydin, C., Akinci, M., & Yilmaz, Ö. (2016). The Analysis of Visible Hand of Government: The Threshold Effect of Government Spending on Economic Growth. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, 7(5), 170.
Bahal, G., Raissi, M., & Tulin, V. (2018). Crowding-out or crowding-in? Public and private investment in India. World Development, 109, 323-333.
Başarır, Ç., & Sarıhan, A. Y. (2018). The Effect of Investment Incentives and Export Credits on Country Export: The Case Of Turkey. Kırgızistan-Türkiye Manas Üniversitesi, 7(3), 505-518.
Baykul, A. (2018). Bölgesel Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerinde Ar-Ge Faaliyetlerinin Etkileri: Türkiye’de Düzey I Bölgelerinde Ampirik Bir İnceleme. Kırgızistan-Türkiye Manas Üniversitesi, 7(2), 143-154.
Biswas, S., Chakraborty, I., & Hai, R. (2017). Income inequality, tax policy, and economic growth. The Economic Journal, 127(601), 688-727.
Brueckner, M., Dabla-Norris, E., Gradstein, M., & Lederman, D. (2018). The rise of the middle class and economic growth in ASEAN. Journal of Asian Economics, 56, 48-58.
Bunte, J. B., Desai, H., Gbala, K., Parks, B., & Runfola, D. M. (2018). Natural resource sector FDI, government policy, and economic growth: Quasi-experimental evidence from Liberia. World Development, 107, 151-162.
Cappella Zielinski, R., Fordham, B. O., & Schilde, K. E. (2017). What goes up, must come down? The asymmetric effects of economic growth and international threat on military spending. Journal of Peace Research, 54(6), 791-805.
d’Agostino, G., Dunne, J. P., & Pieroni, L. (2016). Government spending, corruption and economic growth. World Development, 84, 190-205.
David, O. O., & Mohammed, Y. (2016). The Perceived Relations between Development Reforms, Stock Market Performance and Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1984-2014. Economy, 3(1), 31-39.
Dettrey, B. J., & Palmer, H. D. (2015). Partisan Differences in the Distributional Effects of Economic Growth: Stock Market Performance, Unemployment, and Political Control of the Presidency. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 25(3), 317-332.
Dincer, H. (2018). HHI-based evaluation of the European banking sector using an integrated fuzzy approach. Kybernetes.
Dinçer, H., Yüksel, S., & Martínez, L. (2019). Balanced scorecard-based Analysis about European Energy Investment Policies: A hybrid hesitant fuzzy decision-making approach with Quality Function Deployment. Expert Systems with Applications, 115, 152-171.
Dinçer, H., Hacıoğlu, Ü., & Yüksel, S. (2017a). A Strategic Approach to Global Financial Crisis in Banking Sector: A Critical Appraisal of Banking Strategies Using Fuzzy ANP and Fuzzy Topsis Methods. International Journal of Sustainable Economies Management (IJSEM), 6(1), 1-21.
Dinçer, H., Yüksel, S., & Adalı, Z. (2017b). Identifying Causality Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Developed Countries. International Business and Accounting Research Journal, 1(2), 71-81.
Dinçer, H., Yüksel, S., & Şenel, S. (2018a). Analyzing the Global Risks for the Financial Crisis after the Great Depression Using Comparative Hybrid Hesitant Fuzzy Decision-Making Models: Policy Recommendations for Sustainable Economic Growth. Sustainability, 10(9), 3126.
Dinçer, H., Hacıoğlu, Ü., & Yüksel, S. (2018b). Determining Influencing Factors of Currency Exchange Rate for Decision Making in Global Economy Using MARS Method. In Geopolitics and Strategic Management in the Global Economy(pp. 261-273). IGI Global.
Dunne, J. P., & Tian, N. (2015). Military expenditure, economic growth and heterogeneity. Defence and Peace Economics, 26(1), 15-31.
Égert, B. (2015). Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?. Journal of Macroeconomics, 43, 226-238.
Fasanya, I. O., & Olayemi, I. A. (2018). Balance of payment constrained economic growth in Nigeria: How useful is the Thirlwall's hypothesis?. Future Business Journal, 4(1), 121-129.
Friedman, J. H. (1991). Multivariate adaptive regression splines. The annals of statistics, 1-67.
George, S. (2014). Effect of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) Inflow in Kenya on Economic Growth (GDP), Exports and Balance of Payment (BOP) (Doctoral dissertation, United States International University-Africa).
Gokten, S., & Karatepe, S. (2016). Electricity consumption and economic growth: A causality analysis for Turkey in the frame of import-based energy consumption and current account deficit. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 11(4), 385-389.
Guttmann, R. (2016). How Credit-money Shapes the Economy: The United States in a Global System: The United States in a Global System. Routledge.
Herndon, T., Ash, M., & Pollin, R. (2014). Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff. Cambridge journal of economics, 38(2), 257-279.
Ihugba, O. A., & Njoku, A. C. (2017). Social and Community Services Government Expenditure and Nigeria’s Economic Growth. In Advances in Applied Economic Research (pp. 59-71). Springer, Cham.
Karahan, Ö., & Çolak, O. (2017). Financial Capital Inflows, Current Account Deficit and Economic Growth in Turkey. European Financial Systems 2017, 300.
Kartal, M. T., Depren, S. K., & Depren, Ö. (2018). Türkiye’de Döviz Kurlarini Etkileyen Makroekonomik Göstergelerin Belirlenmesi: Mars Yöntemi İle Bir İnceleme. Kırgızistan-Türkiye Manas Üniversitesi, 7(1), 209-229.
Kasman, A., & Duman, Y. S. (2015). CO2 emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: a panel data analysis. Economic Modelling, 44, 97-103.
Kempa, B., & Khan, N. S. (2016). Government debt and economic growth in the G7 countries: are there any causal linkages?. Applied Economics Letters, 23(6), 440-443.
Kennedy, T., Smyth, R., Valadkhani, A., & Chen, G. (2017). Does income inequality hinder economic growth? New evidence using Australian taxation statistics. Economic Modelling, 65, 119-128.
Konuk, F. (2018). Financial and Performance Analysis of Food Companies: Application of TOPSIS and DEA. Kırgızistan-Türkiye Manas Üniversitesi, 7(3), 381-390.
Lin, B., & Omoju, O. E. (2017). Does private investment in the transport sector mitigate the environmental impact of urbanisation? Evidence from Asia. Journal of cleaner production, 153, 331-341.
Mikucka, M., Sarracino, F., & Dubrow, J. K. (2017). When does economic growth improve life satisfaction? Multilevel analysis of the roles of social trust and income inequality in 46 countries, 1981–2012. World Development, 93, 447-459.
Ngare, E., Nyamongo, E. M., & Misati, R. N. (2014). Stock market development and economic growth in Africa. Journal of Economics and Business, 74, 24-39.
Odhiambo, N. M. (2015). Government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa: An empirical investigation. Atlantic Economic Journal, 43(3), 393-406.
Oishi, S., & Kesebir, S. (2015). Income inequality explains why economic growth does not always translate to an increase in happiness. Psychological science, 26(10), 1630-1638.
Oktar, S., & Yüksel, S. (2015). Bankacilik Krizlerinin Erken Uyari Sinyalleri: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 14(28), 37.
Oktar, S., & Yüksel, S. (2016). Bankalarin Türev Ürün Kullanimini Etkileyen Faktörler: Mars Yöntemi ile Bir Inceleme/Determinants of the Use Derivatives in Banking: An Analysis with MARS Model. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 53(620), 31.
Oladosu, G. A., Leiby, P. N., Bowman, D. C., Uría-Martínez, R., & Johnson, M. M. (2018). Impacts of oil price shocks on the United States economy: A meta-analysis of the oil price elasticity of GDP for net oil-importing economies. Energy Policy, 115, 523-544.
Pan, C. I., Chang, T., & Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2015). Military spending and economic growth in the Middle East countries: Bootstrap panel causality test. Defence and Peace Economics, 26(4), 443-456.
Panizza, U., & Presbitero, A. F. (2014). Public debt and economic growth: is there a causal effect?. Journal of Macroeconomics, 41, 21-41.
Pradhan, R. P., Arvin, M. B., & Ghoshray, A. (2015). The dynamics of economic growth, oil prices, stock market depth, and other macroeconomic variables: Evidence from the G-20 countries. International Review of Financial Analysis, 39, 84-95.
Rivero, R. A. B. (2017). Role of government spending on economic growth: an endogenous potential model for Bolivia. Revista Nicolaita de Estudios Económicos, 11(1), 27-48.
Rubin, A., & Segal, D. (2015). The effects of economic growth on income inequality in the US. Journal of Macroeconomics, 45, 258-273.
Saboori, B., Sapri, M., & bin Baba, M. (2014). Economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development)'s transport sector: A fully modified bi-directional relationship approach. Energy, 66, 150-161.
Saddimbah, G. (2014). Effect of Foreign Direct Investments Inflow in Kenya on Economic Growth, Exports and Balance of Payment [MBA Thesis a Ccompanied by a CD-ROM](Doctoral dissertation, United States International University, Nairobi).
Salahuddin, M., & Gow, J. (2014). Economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Energy, 73, 44-58.
Terzioğlu, M. K. (2018). The Nexus Among Fiscal Policies, Fiscal Decentralization, And Economic Performance: Joint Effect Of Globalization And Institutional Quality. Kırgızistan-Türkiye Manas Üniversitesi, 7(2), 155-172.
Thomas, M. P. (2016). Impact of services trade on India's economic growth and current account balance: Evidence from post-reform period (No. 164). FIW Working Paper.
Töngür, Ü., & Elveren, A. Y. (2017). The nexus of economic growth, military expenditures, and income inequality. Quality & Quantity, 51(4), 1821-1842.
Tunay, K. B. (2001). Türkiye’de paranın gelir dolaşım hızlarının MARS yöntemiyle tahmini. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 28(3-4), 431-454.
Tunay, K. B. (2010). Bankacılık Krizleri ve Erken Uyarı Sistemleri: Türk Bankacılık Sektörü İçin Bir Model Önerisi. Journal of BRSA Banking & Financial Markets, 4(1).
Tunay, K. B. (2011). Türkiye'de Durgunluklarin MARS Yöntemi ile Tahmini ve Kestirimi. MU Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Dergisi, 30(1), 71-91.
Vincens, N., & Stafström, M. (2015). Income inequality, economic growth and stroke mortality in Brazil: longitudinal and regional analysis 2002-2009. PloS one, 10(9), e0137332.
Wang, S., Li, Q., Fang, C., & Zhou, C. (2016). The relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions: Empirical evidence from China. Science of the Total Environment, 542, 360-371.
Wu, Y., & Yao, H. (2015). Income inequality, state ownership, and the pattern of economic growth–A tale of the Kuznets Curve for China since 1978. Atlantic Economic Journal, 43(2), 165-180.
Yildirim, J., & Öcal, N. (2016). Military expenditures, economic growth and spatial spillovers. Defence and Peace Economics, 27(1), 87-104.
Yüksel, S. (2016a). Türkiye’de Cari İşlemler Açığının Belirleyicileri: Mars Yöntemi ile Bir İnceleme. Bankacılar Dergisi, 96(27), 102-121.
Yüksel, S. (2016b). Bankaların Takipteki Krediler Oranını Belirleyen Faktörler: Türkiye İçin Bir Model Önerisi. Bankacılar Dergisi, 98, 41-56.
Yüksel, S., Zengin, S., & Kartal, M. T. (2016). Identifying the Macroeconomic Factors Influencing Credit Card Usage in Turkey by Using MARS Method. China-USA Business Review, 15(12), 611-615.
Yüksel, S., & Özsarı, M. (2017). Türkiye’nin Kredi Notunu Etkileyen Faktörlerin MARS Yöntemi İle Belirlenmesi. Politik Ekonomik Kuram, 1(2), 16-31.
Yüksel, S. (2017a). Strategies Out of Global Recession in Emerging Markets: An Application for 2008 Global Crisis. In Global Business Strategies in Crisis (pp. 57-75). Springer, Cham.
Yüksel, S. (2017b). The impacts of research and development expenses on export and economic growth. International Business and Accounting Research Journal, 1(1), 1-8.
Yüksel, S., & Adalı, Z. (2017). Determining influencing factors of unemployment in Turkey with MARS method. International Journal of Commerce and Finance, 3(2), 25-36.
Yüksel, S., & Zengin, S. (2016). Leading Indicators of 2008 Global Crisis: An Analysis with Logit and Mars Methods. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 8(15), 495-518.
Yüksel, S., & Zengin, S. (2017). Influencing Factors of Net Interest Margin in Turkish Banking Sector. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(1), 178-191.
Yüksel, S., Canöz, İ., & Adalı, Z. (2017). Türkiye’deki Mevduat Bankalarının Fiyat-Kazanç Oranını Etkileyen Değişkenlerin Mars Yöntemi İle Belirlenmesi. Fiscaoeconomia, (3).
Yüksel, S., Mukhtarov, S., Mahmudlu, C., Mikayilov, J. I., & Iskandarov, A. (2018). Measuring International Migration in Azerbaijan. Sustainability, 10(1), 132.