Türkiye’deki Cari Açık Sürdürülebilir mi? Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de cari işlemler açığının sürdürülebirliği eş-bütünleşme yöntemi yardımıyla, 1992:01-2007-12 dönemi aylık verileri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın ampirik kanıtlarına göre, Türkiye’de cari işlemler açığı ancak düşük düzeyde sürdürülebilir. Çünkü ihracat ile ithalat serileri arasında uzun dönem ilişkisi olmasına rağmen, eş-bütünleşme katsayısı 0.8926 çıkmıştır. Yani, ekonominin döviz gelirleri döviz giderlerinden azdır

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Cari işlemler açığı, Eş-bütünleşme Analizi, Türkiye

Is the Current Account Deficit in Turkey Sustainable? An Econometric Analysis

In this paper, the sustainable of current account deficits in Turkey is analysed by using cointegration method for the period from 1992:01-2007:12. The empirical evidence of the study suggests that the current account deficit in Turkey can be sustainable only at a low level. That is because cointegration coefficient is 0.8926, in spite of the presence of the long run relation beetwen export series and import series. That is economic’s exchange rate income is less than exchange rate expense.

Keywords:

Current Account Deficit, Cointegration Analysis, Turkey,

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