TÜRKİYE’DE KAMU SABİT SERMAYE YATIRIMLARININ VERİMLİLİĞİ: SINIR TESTİ İLE EKONOMETRİK BİR YAKLAŞIM, 1963–2002

Bu çalışma; 1963–2002 döneminde kamu sabit sermaye yatırımlarının Türkiye’deki özel imalat sanayii çıktısına etkisini araştırmaktadır. Çalışmada kamu sabit sermaye yatırımlarının çıktı üzerindeki uzun dönemli etkisini tahmin etmek için; Pesaran vd. (2001)'ın önerdiği sınır testi (bounds test) yöntemi ile eşbütünleşme analizi yapılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre; Türkiye’deki kamu sabit sermaye yatırımları ile reel özel imalat sanayii çıktısı eşbütünleşiktir. Sonuçlar, kamu sabit sermaye yatırımlarının özel imalat sanayii çıktısı üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.

PUBLIC FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN TURKEY

This study investigates the effect of public gross fixed investments on private manufacturing output in 1963-2002. In this study, to estimate the long run effect of public gross fixed investments on output, cointegration analysis by the bounds test method of Pesaran Vd.(2001) was conducted. According to findings, public gross fixed investments and real private manufacturing output in Turkey are cointegrated. Results show that public gross fixed investments have statistically significant positive impact on private manufacturing output.

Kaynakça

ALBALA-BERTRAND, J.M. ve E. C. MAMATZAKIS (2001), “Is public infrastructure productive?”, Applied Economics Letters, 8, 195-198.

ANDREWS, Kim ve James SWANSON (1995), “Does public infrastructure affect regional performance”, Growth and Change, 26(2), 204-216.

ASCHAUER, David A. (1985), “Fiscal policy and aggregate demand”, American Economic Review, 75(1), 117-127.

ASCHAUER, David A. (1989), “Is public expenditure productive?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 23, 177-199.

BERNDT, Ernst R. ve Bengt HANSSON (1991), “Measuring the contribution of public infrastructure capital in Sweden”, NBER Working Paper, No. 3842, http://papers.nber.org/papers/w3842. html(20/09/2005)

BLEJER, I.Mario ve Mohsin S. KHAN (1984), “Government policy and private investment in developing countries“, IMF Staff Paper, 31, 379-403.

DALAMAGAS, Basil (1995), “A Reconsideration of the Public Sector's Contribution to Growth”, Empirical Economics, 1995, 20(3), 385-414

DİE. (2001), İstatistik Göstergeler, 1923-1998.

DPT. (2002), Ekonomik ve Sosyal Göstergeler, (1950-2001).

DPT. (2003), Temel Ekonomik Göstergeler.

ENGLE, Robert F. ve C.V.J. GRANGER (1987), “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55, 251-276.

EVANS, Paul ve Georgios KARRAS (1994),”Are Government Activities Productive? Evidence from a Panel of U.S. States”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 76(1), 1-11.

GRAMLICH, Edward M. (1994), “Infrastructure investment: a review essay”, Journal of Economic Literature, 32, 1176-1196.

IMF. (1981), Government Finance Statistics Yearbook.

IMF. (2002), Government Finance Statistics Yearbook.

JOHANSEN, Soren (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(1), 231-254.

JOHANSEN, Soren ve Katarina JUSELIUS (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.

KARADAĞ, Metin , DELIKTAŞ, Ertuğrul ve A. Özlem Önder (2003), “The effects of Public Infrastructure on Private Sector Performances in the Turkish Regional Manufacturing Industries”, http://www.regional- studies-assoc.ac.uk/events/pisa03/karadag.pdf. html(20/09/2005)

KEELER, Theodore E. ve John S. YING, (1988), “Measuring the benefits of a large public investment”, Journal of Public Economics , 36(1), 69-85.

KORMENDI, Roger C. (1983), “Government debt, government spening, and private sector behaviour,“ American Economic Review, 73(5), 994- 1010.

KORMENDI, Roger C. ve Philip MEGUIRE (1986), “Government debt, government spening, and private sector behaviour: reply,“ American Economic Review, 76(5), 1180-1187.

KORMENDI, Roger C. ve Philip MEGUIRE (1990), “Government debt, government spening, and private sector behaviour: reply and updata,“ American Economic Review, 80, 804-817.

KREMERS, Jeroen J.M., ERICSSON, Neil R. ve Juan J. DOLADO (1992), “The power of cointegration tests”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54, 325-348.

LYNDE, Catherina ve J. RICHMOND (1993),“Public Capital and Long-Run Costs in U.K. Manufacturing”, Economic Journal, 103(419), 880-893.

MAH, Jai S. (2000), “An empirical examination of the disaggregated import demand of Korea – the case of information technology products”, Journal of Asian Economics, 11, 237-244.

MAMATZAKIS, E.C. (2002), “Public infrastructure and private output: an application to Greece”, Journal of Economic Development, 27(2), 143-160.

MORRISON, Catherine J. ve Amy E. SHWARTZ (1992), “State infrastructure and productive performance”, NBER Working Paper. No. 4845, http://papers.nber.org/papers/w3981. html (20/09/2005).

NADIRI, M.Ishaq ve Theofanis P. MAMUNEAS (1994), “Infrastructure and public r&d investments and the growth of factor productivity in US manufacturing industries”, NBER Working Paper. No. 4845, http://papers.nber.org/papers/w3842. html (20/09/2005).

PEREIRA, Alfredo M. ve Rafael F. de Frutos (1999), “Public capital accumulation and private sector performance”, Journal of Urban Economics, 46, 300-322.

PESARAN, M.Hashem, SHIN, Yongcheol ve Richard J. SMITH (2001), “Bound testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships”, University of Cambridge, Revised – DAE Working Paper No. 9907. http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/faculty/pesaran/pss1r1.pdf.html (20/09/2005)

ROVOLIS Antonis ve Nigel SPENCE (2002), “Promoting regional economic growth in Greece by investing in public infrastructure”, Government and Policy, 20(3), 393-419.

SEITZ, Helmut (1994), “Public capital and the demand for private inputs”, Journal of Public Economics, 54(2), 287-307.

SERVEN, L. (1996), “Does public capital crowd out private capital?” The World Bank Working Paper. No. 1613, http://econ.worldbank.org/resource.php. html (20/09/2003)

STURM, Jan E. (1997), “The impact of public infrastructure capital on the private sector of the Netherlands”, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, The Hague, http://www.cpb.nl/nl/pub/onderzoek/133/om133.pdf. html (20/09/2005)

STURM, Jan E. ve Jakob de HAAN (1995), “Is public expenditure really productive?” Economic Modelling , 12(1), 60-72.

TATOM, John (1991), “Public capital and private sector performance”, Review of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 3-15.