TÜRKİYE’DE KAMU SABİT SERMAYE YATIRIMLARININ VERİMLİLİĞİ: SINIR TESTİ İLE EKONOMETRİK BİR YAKLAŞIM, 1963–2002

Bu çalışma; 1963–2002 döneminde kamu sabit sermaye yatırımlarının Türkiye’deki özel imalat sanayii çıktısına etkisini araştırmaktadır. Çalışmada kamu sabit sermaye yatırımlarının çıktı üzerindeki uzun dönemli etkisini tahmin etmek için; Pesaran vd. (2001)'ın önerdiği sınır testi (bounds test) yöntemi ile eşbütünleşme analizi yapılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre; Türkiye’deki kamu sabit sermaye yatırımları ile reel özel imalat sanayii çıktısı eşbütünleşiktir. Sonuçlar, kamu sabit sermaye yatırımlarının özel imalat sanayii çıktısı üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Kamu sabit sermaye yatırımları, verimlilik, birim kök, kısıtsız hata düzeltme modeli, eşbütünleşme analizi, sınır testi, kritik sınır değerleri

PUBLIC FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN TURKEY

This study investigates the effect of public gross fixed investments on private manufacturing output in 1963-2002. In this study, to estimate the long run effect of public gross fixed investments on output, cointegration analysis by the bounds test method of Pesaran Vd.(2001) was conducted. According to findings, public gross fixed investments and real private manufacturing output in Turkey are cointegrated. Results show that public gross fixed investments have statistically significant positive impact on private manufacturing output.

Keywords:

Public gross fixed investment, productivity, unit roots, unrestricted error correction model, cointegration, bounds test, critical value bounds,

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