DÜNYA TİCARET ÖRGÜTÜ TARIM ANLAŞMASININ TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÜZERİNE ETKİLERİ: BİR HESAPLANABİLİR GENEL DENGE MODELİ ÇALIŞMASI

Bu çalışma, çok yanlı bir ticaret serbestleşmesi girişimi olan Dünya Ticaret Örgütü Tarım Anlaşması’nın hükümleri gereği, anlaşmaya taraf ülkelerin, ticaretin önündeki engelleri belli kurallar doğrultusunda azaltmaları sonucunda oluşması beklenen yeni durumu ve bu yeni durumun Türkiye üzerindeki kısa dönemli etkilerinin bir genel denge analizi çerçevesinde incelendiği bir çalışmadır. Bu amaç için kurulan TRCGE Modeli; tek ülkeli, çok sektörlü, statik bir hesaplanabilir genel denge çerçevesinde kurgulanmıştır. Model; dördü tarımsal, üçü tarım dışı olmak üzere toplam yedi üretici sektör, üç üretim faktörü, bir hanehalkı, devlet ve firmalar ile bir dış dünya arasındaki üretim, bölüşüm, tüketim, tasarruf, yatırım ve dış ticaret ilişkilerini eşanlı denklemler sistemi ile tanımlanmaktadır. Modelin politika deneyleri, Anlaşma hükümleri doğrultusunda Türkiye’nin ulusal yükümlülükleri esas alınarak ve dünya tarımsal ürün fiyatlarındaki en düşük ve en yüksek öngörümleme değerleriyle, hem toplam hem de kısmi etkiler bakımından altı farklı senaryo altında kurgulanmıştır. Bu politika deneyleri sonucunda üretim, bölüşüm, tüketim, tasarruf, yatırım ve dış ticarete ilişkin olarak ulaşılan sektörel düzeydeki bazı temel bulgular, ayrıntılı olarak tablolar halinde verilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Uluslararası tarım ticareti, Serbestleşme, Dünya Ticaret Örgütü, Hesaplanabilir genel denge analizi, Türkiye

EFFECTS OF WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION'S AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL STUDY

This study aims to examine the new environment that is expected to arise as participant countries of World Trade Organization Agricultural Agreement, which is a multilateral trade liberalization attempt, reduce trade barriers in accordance with certain rules and studies the effects of the new environment on Turkey in the short run within a general equilibrium analysis framework. Constructed for this purpose, TRCGE Model is formulated within a static computable general equilibrium framework of a single country and multiple sectors. The model defines production, exchange, consumption, saving, investment and foreign trade relations between a total of 7 production sectors, of which four are agricultural and three are non-agricultural, three factors of production, a single household, the government, the firms and the rest of the world by making use of simultaneous equations systems. Taking Turkey's national obligations as a foundation, policy experiments have been formulated under 6 scenarios that differ in terms of both aggregate and partial effects and make use of lowest and highest expected world agricultural product prices. Certain sectoral findings regarding production, exchange, consumption, saving, investment and foreign trade have been obtained as a result of policy experiments and are presented in detailed tables.

Keywords:

Agriculture in international trade, Liberalization, World Trade Organization, Computable general equilibrium analysis, Turkey,

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