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Avusturya İş Çevrimleri Teorisi Çerçevesinde Global Faiz Oranlarının Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerdeki İş Çevrimlerine Etkisi: Panel VAR Uygulaması

Bu çalışmada Avusturya İş Çevrimleri Teorisi çerçevesinde global faiz oranlarının dokuz gelişmekte olan ülke üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Avusturya İş Çevrimleri Teorisi’ne göre, faiz oranlarındaki suni düşüş ekonominin kaynak dağılımını bozarak sürdürülebilir olmayan bir ekonomik canlanmaya neden olmakta ve süreç krizle sonuçlanmaktadır. Avusturya İş Çevrimleri Teorisi kapalı ve açık ekonomiler için incelendikten sonra, 1996-2016 dönemi için panel VAR modeli ile test edilmiştir. İlk olarak, ABD ve Euro Bölgesi faiz oranları ile gelişmekte olan ülkelerin faiz oranları arasındaki ilişki incelenmiş ve her iki faiz oranının da gelişmekte olan ülkelerin faizleri üzerinde belirleyici etkileri olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Daha sonra, üç faiz oranının gelişmekte olan ülkelerin endüstriyel üretimi üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Yurt içi faizlerin yanı sıra, özellikle ABD faiz oranının endüstriyel üretimdeki değişimler üzerinde önemli etkilere sahip olduğu bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Uluslararası İş Çevrimleri, Avusturya İş Çevrimleri Teorisi, Panel VAR

The Effect of Global Interest Rates on Business Cycles in Developing Countries within The Austrian Business Cycle Theory Framework: A Panel VAR Application

In this study, it was analyzed the effects of global interest rates on nine developing countries within the Austrian business cycle theory. According to the Austrian Business Cycles Theory, the artificial decline in interest rates disrupts the resource allocation of the economy, causing an unsustainable economic recovery, and the process results in a crisis. After examining the Austrian business cycle theory for closed and open economies, the panel VAR model was tested for the 1996-2016 period. First, it was investigated the relationship between the US-Euro Area interest rates and interest rates of developing countries. It was found that both interest rates have impacts on interest rates of developing countries. Then, it was analyzed that the effects of these three interest rates on industrial production of developing countries. Besides the domestic interest rates, especially the US interest rate has significant effects on changing in industrial production.

Keywords:

International Business Cycles, Austrian Business Cycle Theory, Panel VAR,

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