Dış Borç ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Kırılgan Beşli Ülkeleri Örneği

Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yatırımlar için gerekli tasarrufların yurtiçinde yetersiz kalması, bu ülkeleri dış kaynak arayışına ve dış borçlanmaya itmektedir. Bu çalışmada “Kırılgan Beşli” olarak adlandırılan Brezilya, Endonezya, Hindistan, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye’de dış borçlanma-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi 1970-2018 dönemi için VAR modelleri ile incelenmiştir. Oluşturulan VAR modelleri kullanılarak, değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönü Granger nedensellik testi ile araştırılmıştır. Nedensellik testi sonuçlarını desteklemek amacıyla, değişkenler arasındaki dinamik ilişkiler etki-tepki fonksiyonları ve varyans ayrıştırma analizi ile incelenmiştir. Analiz sonucunda elde edilen bulgular şu şekildedir: i) Brezilya’da dış borç stoku ile GSYİH arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiş, ancak dış borçlanmanın büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin daha fazla olduğu görülmüştür. ii) Endonezya ve Hindistan’da dış borç stoku ile GSYİH arasında anlamlı ilişki bulunamamıştır. iii) Türkiye ve Güney Afrika’da dış borç stokundan GSYİH’ya doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiş ve bu ülkelerde dış borçlanmanın büyüme üzerinde pozitif etkisinin olduğu görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Dış borçlanma, Ekonomik büyüme, VAR analizi, Granger nedenselliği

The Relationship Between External Debt and Economic Growth: The Case of Fragile Five Countries

The inadequacy of the internal savings required for investments in developing countries pushes them to seek outsourcing and external borrowing. In this study, the relationship between external borrowing and economic growth has been examined by the VAR model for 1970-2018 period in Brazil, Indonesia, India, South Africa and Turkey, which also called as “Fragile Five”. The direction of the relationship between the variables has been examined with the Granger causality test by using the generated VAR models. In order to support the causality test results, the dynamic relationships between variables has been analyzed with impulse-response functions and variance decomposition analysis. The findings obtained from the analysis are as follows: i) In Brazil, a unidirectional causality relationship from the GDP to the external debt stock has been found. Also, economic growth has a significant positive impact on external borrowing. ii) There is no statistically significant relationship between external debt stock and GDP in Indonesia and India. iii) In Turkey and South Africa, a unidirectional relationship from external debt stock to GDP has been found and it has been seen that external borrowing has a positive effect on growth in these countries.

Keywords:

External borrowing, Economic growth, VAR analysis, Granger causality,

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