Prof. Dr. Emin Ertürk, Res. Assist. Derya Yılmaz

Latin Amerika Borç Krizi ve Avrupa İçin Çıkarılacak Dersler

Öz 1970’lerde tüm dünyada ortaya çıkan kredi genişlemesinden Latin Amerika ülkeleri de nasibini almış, artan sosyal harcamalarını yabancı kredilerle finanse etmiş- lerdir. 1980’lerle birlikte uygulanan sıkı para politikaları sonucu gelişmiş ülkelerde faiz oranları önemli ölçüde artmıştır. Sonuçta; Latin Amerika ülkeleri için borcun servisini gerçekleştirmek sıkıntılı olmaya başlamıştır. Çokuluslu bankalar, önemli alacaklara sahip oldukla rından uluslararası koordinasyon kolayca sağlanmıştır. Ancak Latin Amerika bu müzakerelere yıllar harcamış ve bu yıllar bölgede “kayıp on yıl” olarak adlandırılmaya başlanmıştır. Bu gün ise borç başka bir kıtada önemli bir sorun haline gelmiştir. Bazı Avrupa ülkeleri borç servislerini gerçekleştirme de sıkıntılar yaşamaktadır. Bu ülkelerin iflası ve büyük ülkelere sıçrama ihtimali tümbirlik ülkelerinin kredibilitesini sarsmaktadır. Bu durum Ekonomik ve Parasal Birlik(EPB)’in devamı için de tehdit oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışmada öncelikle Latin Amerika’nın yaşadığı borç tecrübesi ele alınacak, buradan alınan dersle Avrupa borç krizi incelenecektir. Sonuç olarak ise parasal birliğin geleceği için olası politika seçenekleri değerlendirilecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Latin Amerika Borç Krizi, Avrupa Borç Krizi, Ekonomik ve Parasal Birlik(EPB)

PDF

___

(2012, June 16). The Spanish Bailout: Going to Extra Time. The Economist, p. 12-13.

Afonso, A., Schuknecht, L., Tanzi, V. (2006). Public Sector Efficiency: Evidence from new EU member States and Emerging Markets (ECB Working Paper Series No. 581). Retrieved 2012, January 06.

Agarwal , M.., & Sengupta, D. (1999). Strucural Ad- justment in Latin America. Econonomic and Politi- cal Weekly, 34(44), 3129-3136.

Ardagna , S., & Caselli, F. (2011). The Political Economy of Greek Debt Crisis: A Tale of Two Debt Crisis (CEP Special Paper No. 25). Retrieved 2012, January 06.

Armigeon, K., & Baccaro, L. (2011, July 05). The Sor- rows and Young Euro: Policy Responses to the So- vereign Debt Crisis. Retrieved 2012, January 06, from http://www.unige.ch/ses/socio/rechetpub/ dejeuner/dejeuner2011-2012/thesorrowsofyoun- geuro.pdf

Buiter , W., Rahbari, E., Michels, J., Gini, G. (2011). Debt of Nations (Citigroup Global Economics View No. 01). Retrieved 2011, February 12, from http:// www.nber.org/~wbuiter

Cavallo, E. A. (2010). Debt Management in Latin Ame- rica, How Safe is New Debt Composition? (Inter- American Development Bank Working Paper No. IDB-PB-109). Retrieved 2012, January 06.

Clark, J. (1993). Debt Reduction and Market Reentry Under the Brady Plan. FED Quarterly Review, 18(4), 38-62.

Cline, W. (1984). International Debt: Systematic Risk and Policy Response. Washington, D.C, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri: Institute for International Eco- nomics.

Cline, W. (1994). International Debt Reexamined. Was- hington, D.C, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri: Institute for International Economics.

Cline,W.(2011), Alternative Strategies for Resolving the European Debt Crisis, Speech at Resolving Debt Crisis Conference, Bruegel, France, September 13- 14, 2011.

Cline, W. (2011). Sustainability of Greek Public Debt (Institute for International Economics Policy Brief, No. PB11-15). Retrieved 2012, February 06.

Delvin, R., & Davis, R. F. (1995). The Great Latin American Debt Crisis: A Decade of Asymmetric Adjustment. Revista de Economica Politica, 13(3), 117-142.

Dooley, M. (1994). A Retrospective on the Debt Crisis (NBER Working Paper No. 4963). Retrieved 2012, November 07.

EC.(2011). The Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece, Fourth Review, Spring 2011, Occasional Papers, No:82.

Eichengreen, B., & Lindert, P. (1992). The International Debt Crisis in Historical Perspective,. London, Bir- leşik Krallık: MIT Press.

Eichengreen, B., & Kenen, P. (1992). Managing the World Economy under the Bretton Woods System. London, UK., Longman Group, in Kenen, P. (Eds.) Managing The World Economy Fifty Years After Bretton Wood, (p.3-57).

Eichengreen, B., & Portes, R. (2012). Debt and Defa- ult in the 1930s: Causes and Consequences (NBER Working Paper No. 1772). Retrieved 2012, October 07.

Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., Panizza, U. (2003). Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Origi- nal Sin: Why They are not The Same and Why It Matters? (NBER Working Paper No. 10036). Retri- eved 2012, November 07.

Enders, T. (1994). American Economic Policy in 1980s. Chicago, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri: NBER Bo- oks, University of Chicago Press.In Feldstein , M. (Eds.), LDC Debt Policy (p. 722-725).

Ertürk, E. (1991). Para İkamesi, Kavram, Teori, Olu- şum Süreci ve Sonuçları [Currency Substitution, Concept,Theory, Process and Consequences]. Bursa, Türkiye: Uludağ Üniversitesi Yayınları.

Ertürk, E., Bahtiyar,G., Tayyar,A. (2012). Bütçe Açıkları ve Enflasyonun Ekonomi Politiği, YEBKO Internati- onal Conference, October, 6-7, Kuşadası.

Gourinchas , P., & Obstfeld, M. (2012). Stories of the Twenieth Ceuntry for the Twentyfirst. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4(1), 226-265.

Gutierrez, E. (2003). Inflation Performance and Consti- tutional Central Bank Independence: Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean (IMF Working Paper No. WP/03/53). Retrieved 2012, November 07.

Handler, H., Koebel, B., Reiss, B., Schratzenstaller, M. (2012). The Size and Performance of Public Sector Activities in Europe (WIFO Working Papers No. 246). Retrieved 2012, March 05.

Jungito, R. and Vargas, H. (1996), “Central Bank In- dependence and Foreign Exchange Policies in La- tin America”, IMF-Banco de Republica Seminar on Central Bank Independence. http://www.banrep. org/publicaciones/pub_borra.htm.

Krugman, P. (1994). American Economic Policy in the 1980s . Chicago, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri: NBER Books, University of Chicago Press.In Feld- stein, M. (Eds.), US Policy on Developing Country Debt (p. 691-722).

Krugman, P. (2009). The Return of Depression Econo- mics and The Crisis of 2008. NewYork, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri: W.W. Norton&Company.

Lane, P. (2012). The European Sovereign Debt Crisis. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26(3), 49-68.

Manasse, P., & Roubini, N. (2005). Rules of Thumb for Sovereign Debt Crises (IMF Working Paper No. WP/05/42). Retrieved 2012, January 04.

Manasse, P., & Schimmelpfenning, A. (2003). Predic- ting Sovereign Debt Crisis (IMF Working Paper No. WP/03/221). Retrieved 2012, January 04.

Montefusco, A. (2011). International Debt in Individu- al Countries. NewYork, Amerika Birleşik Devletle- ri: Nova Science Publishers Inc..

Nunnenkamp, P. (1987). International Debt Crisis. NewYork, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri: Prentice Hall..

Ortiz, G., (2011), “What Can The Developed World Le- arn From The Latin American Debt and Mexican Peso Crisis?” Speech at the New Horizons for the Global Economic Landscape, NABE Annual Mee- ting, September 12,2011.

Rachman, G. (2011, November 01). Europe’s Fear of the Greek Referandum. Financial Times, p. 12-12.

Rhodes, M. (1994). American Economic Policy in the 1980s. Chicago, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri: NBER Books, University of Chicago Press.In Feldstein, M. (Eds.), LDC Debt Policy (p. 725-733).

Sachs , J. (1987). Conditionality, Debt Releif and the De- veloping Country Debt Crisis (NBER Working Pa- per No. 2644). Retrieved 2011, February 14.

Smaghi, B.L. (2011), “Eurozone, European Crisis and Policy Responses” speech at Goldman Sachs Global Macro Conference, Hong Kong 2011.

Stein, E. (1999). Fiscal Decentralization and Govern- ment Size in Latin America. Journal of Applied Eco- nomics, 2(2), 357-391.

Wyplosz, C.(2012). The International Monetary System after the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis, paper to be presented at the conference on “Energy, International Monetary System and Sustainable Development” in Seoul on September 21,2012. Ret- reived 2012, October 23, from http://m.kdi.re.kr/ data/download/attach/9680_1-3.pdf

Yılmaz, D. (2012). Yunanistan Krizi ve Euro’dan Çıkış Tratışmaları [Greek Crisis and Leaving The Euro Arguement]. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 49(564), 37-46.