Doç. Dr. Ethem ESEN, Doç. Dr. Erkan ÖZATA

Turizmin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Turizme Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Türkiye İçin Geçerliğinin ARDL Modeli ile Analizi

Öz Türkiye, önemli uluslararası turizm merkezlerinden biridir. Türkiye’de hükümetler, turizm sektörünü desteklemiş ve turizm sektörünün gelişimine öncelik vermişlerdir. Bu nedenle turizm Türkiye’de hızlı büyüme gösteren bir hizmetler sektörü haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Pesaran, Shin ve Smith tarafından geliştirilen otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme modelini (ARDL) kullanarak, Türkiye’de turizmin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini araştırmak ve böylece turizme dayalı büyüme hipotezinin Türkiye için geçerli olup olmadığını test etmektir. Analizde 2003:1-2015:4 dönemine ait çeyrek dönemlik reel Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYH), ülkeye gelen uluslararası turist sayısı ve reel döviz kuru (RER) verileri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre turizmin Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla üzerinde hem kısa dönemde hem de uzun dönemde anlamlı pozitif etkisi vardır. İkinci olarak Granger nedensellik testine Toda-Yamamoto yaklaşımı kullanılmış ve turizmden ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi belirlenmiştir. Böylece çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular, turizme dayalı büyüme hipotezinin Türkiye örneği için ampirik olarak desteklendiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Turizm, Turizme Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi, Ekonomik Büyüme

PDF

___

Ahiawodzi, A. K. (2013). Tourism earnings and economic growth in Ghana. British Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 7(2), 187–202.
Akinboade, O. ve Braimoh, L. A. (2010). International tourism and economic development in South Africa: A Granger causality test. International Journal of Tourism Research, 12, 149–163.
Arslanturk, Y., Balcilar, M. ve Ozdemir, Z. A. (2011). Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in a small open economy. Economic Modelling, 28(1–2), 664-671.
Balaguer ve Cantavella-Jorda (2002). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case, Applied Economics, 34, 877-884.
Belloumi, M. (2010). The relationship between tourism receipts, real effective exchange rate and economic growth in Tunisia. International Journal of Tourism Research, 12(5), 550-560.
Brida, J. G., Cortes-Jimenez, I. ve Pulina M. (2014). Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been validated? A literatüre review. Current Issues in Tourism, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2013.86 8414
Brida, J. G., Pereyra, S. J., Risso, W. A., Such-Devesa, M. J. ve Zapata-Aguirre, S. (2009). The tourism-led growth hypothesis: Empirical evidence from Colombia. Tourismos: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism, 4(2), 13–27.
Brida, J. G., Punzo, L. F. ve Risso, W. A. (2011). Tourism as a factor of growth: The case of Brazil. Tourism Economics, 17(6), 1375–1386.
Brida, J. G. ve Risso, W. A. (2009). Tourism as a factor of long-run economic growth: An empirical analysis for Chile. European Journal of Tourism Research, 2(2), 178-185.
Brown, R.L., Durbin, J., Evans, J.M., (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relations over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37, 149–163.
Corrie, K., Stoeckl, N. ve Chaiechi, T. (2013). Tourism and economic growth in Australia: an empirical investigation of causal links. Tourism Economics, 19(6), 1317-1344.
Cortes-Jimenez, I. ve Pulina, M. (2010). Inbound tourism and long run economic growth. Current Issues in Tourism, 13(1), 61–74.
Coşkun, İ.O. ve Özer, M. (2014). A Reexamination of the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Under Growth and Tourism Uncertainties in Turkey. European Journal of Business and Social Sciences, Vol. 3(8), 256-272.
Çağlayan, E. (2006). Enflasyon, Faiz Oranı ve Büyü- menin Yurtiçi Tasarruflar Üzerindeki Etkileri, Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, XXI(1).
Dolado, J. J. ve Lütkepohl, H., (1996). Making wald tests work for cointegrated VAR systems. Econometric Reviews, 15, 369–386.
Dritsakis, N. (2004). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: An empirical investigation for Greece using causality analysis. Tourism Economics, 10(3), 305-316.
Engle, R.F. ve C.W.J. Granger (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction Estimation and Testing, Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
Ertugrul H. M. ve Mangir F. (2015). The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey, Current Issues in Tourism, 18 (7), 633-646.
Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating causal relation by econometric and cross-sectional method, Econometrica, 37, 424–438.
Granger, C.W.J. (1988). Some recent developments in the concept of causality, Journal of Econometrics, 39, 199-211.
Gunduz, L. ve Hatemi-J, A. (2005). Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey? Applied Economics Letters, 12 (8), 499-504.
Husein, J. ve Kara, S. M. (2011). Research note: Reexamining the tourism-led growth hypothesis for Turkey. Tourism Economics, 17(4), 917-924.
Işık, C. (2012). The USA’s international travel demand and economic growth in Turkey: A causality analysis: (1990–2008). Tourismos: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism, 7(1), 235-252.
Jackman, M. (2012). Revisiting the tourism-led growth hypothesis for Barbados: A disaggregated market approach. Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, 12(2), 15–26.
Jalil, A., Mahmood, T. ve Idrees, M. (2013). Tourism– growth nexus in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL bounds tests, Economic Modelling, 35(C), 185-191.
Jayathilake, P. M. B. (2013). Tourism and economic growth in Sri Lanka: Evidence from cointegration and causality analysis. International Journal of Business, Economics and Law, 2(2), 22-27.
Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models, Econometrica, 59(6), 1551- 1580.
Johansen, S. ve Juselius K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Applications to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169- 210.
Kaplan, M. ve Çelik, T. (2008). The impact of tourism on economic performance: The case of Turkey. The International Journal of Applied Economics and Finance, 2(1), 13–18.
Kasimati, E. (2011). Economic impact of tourism on Greece’s economy: Cointegration and causality analysis. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 79, 79-85.
Katırcıoglu, S. T. (2009a). Testing the tourism-led growth hypothesis: The case of Malta. Acta Oeconomica, 59(3), 331–343.
Katircioglu, S. T. (2009b). Revising the tourism-ledgrowth hypothesis for Turkey using the bounds test and Johansen approach for cointegration. Tourism Management, 30, 17-20.
Katircioğlu, S. T. (2010). International tourism, higher education and economic growth: The case of North Cyprus. The World Economy, 33(12), 1955–1972.
Katırcıoğlu, S. T. (2011). Tourism and Growth in Singapore. New extension from bounds test to level relationship and conditional Granger causality tests. Singapore Economic Review, 56(3), 441-453.
Kim, H. J., Chen, M.-H. ve Jang, S. C. S. (2006). Tourism expansion and economic development: The case of Taiwan. Tourism Management, 27, 925-933.
Kostakoğlu, S. F. (2016). Sanayi Sektörü İş Hacminin Ekonometrik Analizi. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16(2), 61-68.
Kreishan, F. M. (2011). Time-series evidence for tourism-led growth hypothesis: A case study of Jordan. International Management Review, 7(1), 89-93.
Mishra, P. K., Rout, H. B. ve Mohapatra, S. S. (2011). Causality between tourism and economic growth: Empirical evidence from India. European Journal of Social Sciences, 18(4), 518–527.
Oh, C. K. (2005). The contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the Korean economy. Tourism Management, 26 (1), 39-44.
Ongan, S. ve Demiröz, D. M. (2005). The contribution of tourism to the long-run Turkish economic growth. Ekonomicky Casopis (Journal of Economics), 53(9), 880-894.
Payne, J. E. ve Mervar, A. (2010). The tourism-growth nexus in Croatia. Tourism Economics, 16(4), 1089– 1094.
Pesaran, M.H. ve Pesaran, B., (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0. Interactive Econometric Analysis. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Pesaran, M.H. ve Shin, Y. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis, in (ed) S.Storm, Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century. The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, chapter11, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge. (http://www.econ. cam.ac.uk/faculty/pesaran/ardl.pdf).
Pesaran M.H., Shin Y. ve Smith R. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationship, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
Srinivasan, P. K., Kumar, S. ve Ganesh, L. (2012). Tourism and economic growth in Sri Lanka: An ARDL bounds testing approach. The Romanian Economic Journal, 45, 211-226.
Tang, C. F. (2013). Temporal Granger causality and the dynamic relationship between real tourism receipts, real income, real exchange rates in Malaysia. International Journal of Tourism Research, 15(3), 272–284.
Tang, C. F., ve Abosedra, S. (2014). Small sample evidence on the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Lebanon. Current Issues in Tourism, 17(3), 234-246.
Toda, H. Y ve Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inferences in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
TÜİK (2016). Basın Odası Haberleri, Sayı: 16/2016, 10 Şubat 2016.
UNWTO (2015). Tourism Highlights, 2015 Edition.
Zortuk, M. (2009). Economic impact of tourism on Turkey’s economy: Evidence from cointegration tests. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 25, 231-239.