Finansal Gelişme ve Ticari Açıklık ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Avrupa Dönüşüm Ekonomileri Örneği

Öz p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Minion Pro'; min-height: 14.0px} p.p2 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; text-align: justify; line-height: 10.1px; font: 10.0px 'Minion Pro'; color: #2d2829} span.s1 {font: 12.0px 'Minion Pro'; color: #000000} Berlin Duvarı’nın yıkılmasını takip eden süreçte bazı Avrupa ülkeleri sosyalist sistemi terk ederek kapitalist ekonomik düzeni tercih etmiştir. Özelleştirmeler ile bankacılık sektörünün baskın olduğu, ticari serbestleşme ve AB’ye üyelik yolunda önemli ekonomik düzenlemelere giden Avrupa dönüşüm ülkeleri için finansal gelişme ve ticari açıklık değişkenleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi test etmek büyük önem taşımaktadır. Az gelişmiş finansal sisteme sahip ülkeler bir kısır döngü içerisinde yer almaktadır, bunun nedeni finansal gelişmedeki yetersizlik ve ona dayalı olan zayıf ekonomik performansın yeniden zayıf finansal gelişmeye yol açmasıdır. Bu çalışmanın amacı Avrupa dönüşüm ekonomileri için 2001-2014 yıllarını kapsayan dönemde finansal gelişme, ticari açıklık ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi panel veri analizi ile test etmektir. Bu doğrultuda öncelikle Temel Bileşenler Analizi ile finansal gelişmişlik endeksi oluşturulmuştur. Değişkenler için homojenlik, yatay kesit bağımlılığı sırasıyla Delta, testleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasında ki eş-bütünleşme ilişkisi ve uzun dönem nedensellik ilişkisi ikinci nesil olarak adlandırılan Durbin-Hausman Eş-bütünleşme Testi ile Dumetriscu-Hurlin (2012) panel nedensellik testi ile sınanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular seçili ülkeler için ele alınan dönemde finansal gelişme ve ticari açıklığa dayalı bir ekonomik büyümenin gerçekleştiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Finansal Gelişme, Ticari Açıklık, Ekonomik Büyüme

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