Öz
p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Minion Pro'; min-height: 14.0px}
p.p2 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; text-align: justify; line-height: 10.1px; font: 10.0px 'Minion Pro'; color: #2d2829}
span.s1 {font: 12.0px 'Minion Pro'; color: #000000}
Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin en önemli ticari ortağı konumunda bulunan Almanya ile karşılıklı dış ticareti üzerinde reel döviz kuru ve döviz kur oynaklığının etkileri sektörel (SITC Rev. 3’e göre 1-digit üzerinden 10 sektör ile) bazda incelenmiştir. 2002-2015 dönemini kapsayan üç aylık veriler ile her bir sektörün ihracat ve ithalat akımları, gelir etkisini görmek için Türkiye ve Almanya’nın gayri safi yurtiçi hasılası, fiyat etkilerini görmek için reel döviz kuru (Avro/Türk Lirası) ve reel döviz kuru oynaklığının bir fonksiyonu olarak tanımlanmıştır. Döviz kuru oynaklığı üç aylık dönemlerde aylık reel döviz kuru değerlerinin standart sapması olarak alınmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkiler Pesaran ve Shin (1999) ve Pesaran, Shin ve Smith (2001) çalışmalarında tanımlanan sınır sınaması ve otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme modeli (ARDL) ile incelenmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, reel döviz kuru oynaklığı reel döviz kuru ile birlikte Almanya ile dış ticaretimizde payı yüksek olan sektörlerde belirleyici olarak bulunmuştur.
___
Aktaş, A. R., Kaplan, F., Ozkan, B. & Brumfield, R.
(2015). The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on
agricultural exports: a study of Turkey. Business
Management Dynamics, March 31, 4(8), 1-8.
Aldan, A., Aydın, M. F., Çulha, O. Y., Sunel, E. & Taşkın,
T. (2012). İhracatta Bölgesel ve Sektörel Çeşitlenme,
TCMB Ekonomi Notları, Sayı: 2012-18 /25
Temmuz, 1-14.
Asteriou, D., Masatci, K. & Pılbeam, K. (2016). Exchange
rate volatility and international trade: International
evidence from the MINT countries. Economic
Modelling, 58, 133-140.
Auboin, M. & Ruta, M. (2013). The relationship between
exchange rates and international trade: A literature
review. World Trade Review, 12(3), 577-605.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Wang, Y. (2007). How Stable is the demand for money in China? Journal of Economic Development, 32(1), 21-33.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Hegerty, S.W. (2007). Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: a review article. J. Econ. Stud. 34 (3), 211–255.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Harvey, H. & S. Hegerty, W. (2013). The effects of exchange-rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and Brazil. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 25, 70-93.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1986). Determinants of international trade flows: The case of developing countries, Journal of Development Economics, 20(1), 107-123.
Baron, D.P. (1976). Fluctuating exchange rates and the pricing of exports. Economic Inquiry, 14, 425-438.
Baum, C.F. & Çağlayan, M. (2010). On the sensitivity of the volume and volatility of bilateral trade flows to exchange rate uncertainty. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29, 79-93.
Bayar, G. Ünal, M. & Tokpunar, S. (2015). Determinants of Turkish exports to European Union Countries: A sectoral panel data analysis. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 51(6), 1307-1325.
Chowdhury, A. R. (1993). Does exchange rate volatility depress trade flows? Evidence from error-correction models. Review of Economics and Statistics, 700-706.
Clark, P., Tamirisa, N. & Wei, S. J. (2004). Exchange rate volatility and trade flows some new evidence. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/external/np/res/exrate/2004/eng/051904.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 26.11.2016).
Clark, P.B. (1973). Uncertainty, exchange risk, and the level of international trade. Western Economic Journal, 6, 302-313.
Demirhan E. & Demirhan, B. (2015). The dynamic effect of exchange-rate volatility on Turkish exports: Parsimonious error-correction model approach. Panoeconomıcus, 62(4), 429-451.
Doğanlar, M. (2002). Estimating the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports: evidence from Asian countries. Applied Economics Letters, 9, 859–863.
Erdal, G., Erdal, H. & Esengün, K. (2012). The effects of exchange rate volatility on trade: evidence from Turkish agricultural trade. Applied Economics Letters, 19(3), 297-303,
Fountas, S. & Aristotelous, K. (2005). The impact of the exchange rate regime on exports: Evidence from the European monetary system. Journal of Economic Integration, 20(3), 567-589.
Franke, G. (1991). Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy. Journal of International Money and Finance, 10, 292-307.
Giorgioni, G. & Thompson, J.L. (2002). Which volatility? The case of the exports of wheat. Applied Economics Letters, 9(4), 681-684.
Hansen, B. E. (1992). Tests for parameter instability in regressions with I(1) processes. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, 321-335.
Hansen, B. E. (1990). Lagrange Multiplier Tests for Parameter Instability in Non-linear Models, (unpublished manuscript). University of Rochester, Dept. of Economics. http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~bhansen/papers/LMTests.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 15.12.2016).
Kızıldere, C., Kabadayı, B. & Emsen, Ö. S. (2014). dış ticaretin döviz kuru değişimlerine duyarlılığı: Türkiye üzerine bir inceleme. International Journal of Economic and Administrative Studies, 6(12), 39-53.
Korkmaz, M., Alacahan, N. D., Aytaç, A., Aksoy, M., Germir, H. N. & Karta, N. (2015). The relation between real exchange rate in Turkey and foreign trade: An applied analysis. IIB International Refereed Academic Social Sciences Journal, 6(18), 84-104.
Maskus, K.E. (1986). Exchange rate risk and US trade:
a sectoral analysis. Economic Review, 71(3), 16-28.
McKenzie, M. & Brooks, R.D. (1997). The impact of
exchange rate volatility on German-US trade flows.
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions
& Money, 7(1), 73-87
McKenzie, M. D. (1999). The impact of exchange rate
volatility on international trade flows. Journal of
Economic Surveys, 13(1), 71–106.
Narayan, Paresh Kumar (2005). The saving and investment
nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration
tests. Applied Econometrics, 37, 1979–1990.
Özmen, E (2014). Reel Döviz Kuru ve Türkiye Dış
Ticaret Dinamikleri. Economic Research Center
Working Papers in Economics, No: 14/12, Ankara:
Ortadoğu Teknik Üniversitesi.
Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive
distributed lag modeling approach to cointgeration
analysis. in S. Strom (Ed.), Econometrics and Economic
Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar
Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds
testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships.
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289–326.
Phillips, P. C. B. & Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical inference
in instrumental variables regression with I(1)
processes. Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99–125.
Poon, W.C., Choong, C.K. & Habibullah, M.S. (2005).
Exchange rate volatility and exports for selected
East Asian countries: evidence from error correction
model. ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 22(2), 144-
59.
Rapp, T.A. & Reddy, N.N. (2000). The effect of real exchange
rate volatility on bilateral sector exports. The
Journal of Economics, 26, 87-103.
Sercu, P. & Vanhulle, C. (1992). Exchange rate volatility,
international trade, and the value of exporting
firms. Journal of Banking and Finance, 16, 155-82
Stokman, A. C. J. (1995). Effect of exchange rate risk
on intra-EC trade. De Economist, 143, 41-54.
Sukar, A.H. & Hassan, S. (2001). US exports and time
varying volatility of real exchange rate. Global Finance
Journal, 12(1), 109-19.
Tenreyro, S. (2007). On the trade impact of nominal
exchange rate volatility. Journal of Development
Economics, 82(2), 485-508.
Tunaer Vural, B. M. (2016). Effect of real exchange rate
on trade balance: commodity level evidence from
Turkish bilateral trade data. Procedia Economics
and Finance, 38, 499-507.
Vergil, H. (2002). Exchange rate volatility in Turkey
and its effect on trade flows. Journal of Economic
and Social Research, 4(1), 67-80.
Yanikkaya H., Kaya H. & Kocturk O.M. (2013). The
effect of real exchange rates and their volatilities
on the selected agricultural commodity exports:
A case study on Turkey, 1971-2010. Agricultural
Economics-Czech, 59(5), 235-24.