Döviz Kuru Oynaklığının Türkiye’nin Almanya ile Mal Ticareti Üzerine Etkileri

Öz p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Minion Pro'; min-height: 14.0px} p.p2 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; text-align: justify; line-height: 10.1px; font: 10.0px 'Minion Pro'; color: #2d2829} span.s1 {font: 12.0px 'Minion Pro'; color: #000000} Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin en önemli ticari ortağı konumunda bulunan Almanya ile karşılıklı dış ticareti üzerinde reel döviz kuru ve döviz kur oynaklığının etkileri sektörel (SITC Rev. 3’e göre 1-digit üzerinden 10 sektör ile) bazda incelenmiştir. 2002-2015 dönemini kapsayan üç aylık veriler ile her bir sektörün ihracat ve ithalat akımları, gelir etkisini görmek için Türkiye ve Almanya’nın gayri safi yurtiçi hasılası, fiyat etkilerini görmek için reel döviz kuru (Avro/Türk Lirası) ve reel döviz kuru oynaklığının bir fonksiyonu olarak tanımlanmıştır. Döviz kuru oynaklığı üç aylık dönemlerde aylık reel döviz kuru değerlerinin standart sapması olarak alınmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkiler Pesaran ve Shin (1999) ve Pesaran, Shin ve Smith (2001) çalışmalarında tanımlanan sınır sınaması ve otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme modeli (ARDL) ile incelenmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, reel döviz kuru oynaklığı reel döviz kuru ile birlikte Almanya ile dış ticaretimizde payı yüksek olan sektörlerde belirleyici olarak bulunmuştur. 

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