Türkiye Ekonomisinde Paranın Rolü

İyi işleyen bir para politikası için parasal büyüklüklerin çıktı ve enflasyon üzerindeki etkisine ilişkin bilgiye ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye için 2006-2017 döneminde parasal iş çevrimi modelinde paranın rolü analiz edilmektedir. Çalışmada yapısal modele ilişkin tahmin sonuçları, tek denklemli tahmin sonuçları ile de karşılaştırılmakta ve her iki yaklaşımdaki tahmin sonuçlarının farklı olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. Bu farklılıklar tek denklemli model tahmin sonuçlarının oldukça ihtiyatlı bir şekilde değerlendirilmesinin gerekliliğine işaret etmektedir. Modelde reel balansların hem IS hem de Philips eğrileri üzerinde etkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Parasal Büyüklükler, Para Politikası, İş Çevrimi Modeli, Yeni Keynesyen Model

The Role of Money in Turkish Economy

A well functioning monetary policy requires the knowledge of the effects of monetary aggregates on output and inflation. In this study, we try to analyze the role of money in a monetary business cycle model in the case of Turkey during the 2006-2017 period. Estimation results of the structural model are also compared with single equations’ estimation results and it is found out that the results of the structural model and single equations are quietly different. The differences show that the results of single equation estimations should cautiously be interpreted. In the model, it is found out that real balances have effects on IS and Philips curves.

Keywords:

Monetary Aggregates, Monetary Policy, Business Cycle Model, New Keynesian,

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