HİSSE SENEDİ FİYATLARI İLE MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLERİN ETKİLEŞİMİ

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Ocak 1996- Aralık 2009 dönemi aylık verileri kullanılarak, İMKB 100 Endeksi ile bazı makroekonomik değişkenler arasında bir ilişki olup olmadığını tespit etmektir. Bağımlı değişken olarak İMKB-100 Endeksi, bağımsız değişkenler olarak da Faiz Oranı, Para Arzı, Dış Ticaret Dengesi, Sanayi Üretim Endeksi, Altın Fiyatları, Döviz Kuru ve Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi kullanılmıştır. Çalışma En Küçük Kareler Tahmin Yöntemi, Johansen-Juselius Eşbütünleşme Testi, Granger Nedensellik Testi ve VEC modelleri uygulanmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlara göre, hisse senedi fiyatı ile bazı makro ekonomik değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Hisse senedi fiyatı, İMKB, VEC modelleri

INTERACTION OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES WITH STOCK PRICES

The aim of this study is to determine whether there is a relationship between ISE 100 Index and some macroeconomic variables by using monthly data of January 1996 – December 2009. ISE 100 Index was used as dependent variable and interest rates, money supply, foreign trade equilibrium, industrial production index, gold prices, exchange rates, consumer price index were used as independent variables. Least squares estimation method, Johansen-Jeselius cointegration test, Granger causality test and variance decomposition results produced by VEC model were used in the study. These analysis show that there is a long run relationship between some macroeconomic variables and stock prices.

Keywords:

Stock price, ISE, VEC models,

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