İSTİHBARATTA GÜNCEL ZORLUKLAR VE AKIMLAR

Bu çalışmada; mevcut istihbarat literatürü, çeşitli ulusal güvenlik dokümanları ve saygın haber kaynaklarının kapsamlı incelenmesi sonucu, istihbarat alanındaki farklı güncel zorluklar bulunmuştur. Güncel zorluklar dört farklı başlık altında incelenmiştir. Bu başlıklar “teknolojik, finansal, kurumsal ve siyasal zorluklar” olarak tanımlanmıştır. Diğer zorlukların ilintili veya sonucu sebebiyle olmasından dolayı teknolojik zorlukların en önemli grup olduğu savunulmuştur. Meta-veri ve sosyal medya kullanımının artması ve siber güvenlik teknolojik zorlukları oluşturmaktadır. İkinci güncel zorluk olarak finansal zorluk tanımlanmıştır ve bu alandaki sorunun büyük oranda kripto paraların kullanımı ile ilgili olduğu savunulmuştur. Üçüncü güncel zorluğun kurumsal olduğu belirtilmiş ve temelde bilgi devrimi ve ulus-dışı istihbarat kuruluşları ile yaşanan rekabetin bu zorluğu oluşturduğu savunulmuştur. Son güncel zorluk olarak popülist milliyetçi hareketler, IŞİD’in yenilmesi sonrası ülkelerine geri dönen üyeleri ve hibrit savaşın yaygınlaşmasının siyasal zorlukları oluşturduğu savunulmuştur. Bahsedilen güncel zorluklar ve küresel güvenlik parametreleri ışığında sekiz adet güncel istihbarat akımı olduğu belirtilmiştir. Bu akımların beş tanesi teknolojik zorluklar ile ilgili iken üç tanesi siyasal zorluklar ile ilgilidir. Teknolojik zorluklar ile ilgili olan güncel istihbarat akımları siber istihbarat birimlerinin kurulması, işe alım politikalarının değişmesi, siber altyapının artan önemi, istihbaratın özelleşmesi ve açık kaynak istihbaratının artan rolü olarak belirlenmiştir. Siyasal zorluklar ile ilgili olan akımlar ise milliyetçi gruplar üzerine yapılan istihbarat faaliyetlerinin artması, ülkelerine dönen/dönmekte IŞİD üyelerinin etkisiz hale getirilmesi ve istihbaratın hibrit savaş ve örtülü operasyonlarda rolünün artması olarak belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İstihbarat, Ulusal Güvenlik, Siber İstihbarat, Teknoloji

CURRENT CHALLENGES AND TRENDS IN INTELLIGENCE

After a thorough examination of current intelligence literature, a variety of national security documents and respected news outlets, I find several current challenges in intelligence under different areas. I classify current major challenges in intelligence into four groups. These are technological, financial, organizational, and political. Technological challenges are the most important ones because other challenges are either related to it or a result of it. These are the expansion of using meta-data, the expansion of social media, and cybersecurity. The second current challenge in intelligence is financial. It is mostly about the use of cryptocurrencies. The third challenge is organizational. These are the impact on information revolution on intelligence organizations and competition with non-intelligence organizations. The last current challenge in intelligence is political. Political challenges are populist nationalist movements, ISIS returnees, and expansion of hybrid warfare. Related to current challenges in intelligence and the global security environment, there are eight current trends in intelligence. Five of them are mostly related to technological challenges, while three of them are related to political challenges. The trends that are related to technological challenges in intelligence are the foundation of cyber intelligence divisions/agencies, the change in recruitment policies, the rising importance of the security of cyberinfrastructure, privatization of intelligence, and increasing role of open-source intelligence. The trends that are related to political challenges in intelligence are the increasing focus on right-wing groups, the elimination of ISIS returnees, and the increasing role of intelligence in hybrid warfare/covert operations.

Keywords:

Intelligence, National Security, Cyber Intelligence, Technology,

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